Predict ARod's season HR & RBI Totals

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll bet the Oakland A's scouts rank hitting ability above glove to glove time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say that? If they see a catcher in college or HS that is a pure hitter their goal is going to find him a new place to play first.

This what Oakland has:

MLB: Jason Kendall- Avg: .191 Slg: .206 Obp: .247

MiLB: AAA Kurt Suzuki- A former top pick. Can swing it well but a great defensive catcher, he is their guy in the minors.
AA Landon Powell- Drafted the same year I believe as Suzuki and high as well. He isn't as good defensively as Suzuki. Look who has progressed.
AA Casey Myers- Perfect example. He was actually one of the guys that took me around on my recruiting trip at ASU. He is still playing baseball b/c of his defensive ability or else he would be gone. He is probably one of the best defensive catchers in the A's organization, he slaps the ball around like a judy so can hit for some avg I guess but has zero pop.

Explain to me why Oakland is more worried about catcher's hitting abilities more than other teams?

[Triumph36]

tdarko,

still, these things do run in cycles. i might agree that guys like henderson aren't coming only because that many stolen bases probably increases the likelihood of injury. and yeah, while the home run is prevailing right now, it was big in the 50s too.

a-rod can definitely steal more bases than he does, but i don't think he's quite the comparison you're looking for.

[Boris]

TD - When the A's acquired Kendall his career average was .307 and his obp was .388. Beane payed a pretty penny (by Oakland standards) to get Kendall.

Presumably the glove to glove time is an indicator of a catcher's ability to prevent the stolen base. But, by your own admission, the sb is not something teams are overly concerned with in today's environment. Also, from what I have read, the pitcher's time to the plate is of relatively more importance than glove to glove time when it comes to preventing the stolen base.

This is wild speculation on my part, but I'll bet organizations like Oakland, Cleveland, Boston, etc... all rank hitting ability and other defensive skills above glove to glove time. Other defensive skills would include the ability to prevent passed balls and wild pitches as well as making plays at the plate.

[TheNoodleMan]

Just an FYI, Reyes is on pace for 108 steals right now.

[KJS]

[ QUOTE ]
This is wild speculation on my part, but I'll bet organizations like Oakland, Cleveland, Boston, etc... all rank hitting ability and other defensive skills above glove to glove time. Other defensive skills would include the ability to prevent passed balls and wild pitches as well as making plays at the plate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cleveland has to. How else could you rationalize having Victor Martinez back there. He could barely throw out my grandmother.

KJS

[SL__72]

Joe Sheehan had a pretty good article on BP.com yesterday talking about the possibility of A-Rod breaking RBI record.

His basic point it sounds like is that this might be the best chance for someone to break it in a long time.

Things he has going for him:

Good OBP by the players in front of him.
The three players in front of him run well.
Not a lot of power in front of him (potentially ~20 less base clearing HRs then batting behind Giambi last year)
Giambi behind him should protect him some.

Basically, if he can hit 50+ HRs, his teammates (in front of him) continue to perform at about their Pecota projected OBP and he hits very well with runners on base, he has a very legit shot at it.

[tdarko]

Triumph,

[ QUOTE ]
still, these things do run in cycles. i might agree that guys like henderson aren't coming only because that many stolen bases probably increases the likelihood of injury. and yeah, while the home run is prevailing right now, it was big in the 50s too.

a-rod can definitely steal more bases than he does, but i don't think he's quite the comparison you're looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right baseball is cyclical. But the game has been revolutionized in a way that unless something drastic happens to teeter the game toward the pitcher you aren't going to see the league leader in HR at 22 (NL 1981). All the changes that have taken place have been for the offensive part of the game, the baseballs have become tighter, the parks smaller not to mention that strength training, nutrition and so many other aspects of the game have made this an offensive game. The only way to make it cyclical again is to make drastic changes that benefit the pitchers or take away from the launching of the baseball...this won't happen, the game is also all about money.

Boris,

[ QUOTE ]
TD - When the A's acquired Kendall his career average was .307 and his obp was .388. Beane payed a pretty penny (by Oakland standards) to get Kendall.

Presumably the glove to glove time is an indicator of a catcher's ability to prevent the stolen base. But, by your own admission, the sb is not something teams are overly concerned with in today's environment. Also, from what I have read, the pitcher's time to the plate is of relatively more importance than glove to glove time when it comes to preventing the stolen base.

This is wild speculation on my part, but I'll bet organizations like Oakland, Cleveland, Boston, etc... all rank hitting ability and other defensive skills above glove to glove time. Other defensive skills would include the ability to prevent passed balls and wild pitches as well as making plays at the plate.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, w/ Kendall they got a slap guy that will have just over a 1:1 BB to K ratio (really good). He hits for no power and does "little things" that count for being productive. This is a guy that got to the big leagues b/c of one rare ability amongst catchers, speed. He was probably the fastest catcher in the league for a long time--the injury probably hurt that. His defense and a knack to do the "little things" has kept him a commodity in the big leagues. In no way is he a "highly skilled" hitter as you say the A's only look for b/c that is nuts.

There are a lot of ways to steal a base and glove to glove was mentioned b/c we were talking about catcher not pitchers, hence the mention of glove to glove times. But, yes, obviously a base can be stolen off a pitcher as well. They work hand in hand and are both important, if a pitcher is a 1.7 to the plate, Pudge is going to have a hard time throwing out Jose Reyes just as if a pitcher is a 1.3 (avg time) to the plate, Piazza is going to have a hard time throwing anyone out.

You are wrong when you say that in today's environment that teams aren't overly concerned w/ the sb. If it weren't important then in spring training pitchers wouldn't work for hours on their pick off moves every single day for months, they wouldn't work on getting quicker to the play everyday for hours and they wouldn't constantly tinker with their stretch mechanics to get quicker to the plate. Also in spring training catchers work w/ the catchers coach (usually an ex-big league catcher) every day throwing buckets of balls to second, working on foot work mostly, downward plane, long hops or no hop to the SS/2b, and pop time/glove to glove. Why do all this if it didn't matter and nobody was concerned with the ground game?

As far as your wild speculation, if a catcher can't control the base paths he isn't of any use no matter what team he is on. The running game opens up the field in case you were wondering. When guys go in motion the field opens up full of holes and if you have a catcher that can't throw or move his feet then guys are going to run all day and the infield will be open all game long. This is a managers nightmare. You have also missed my point a long long time ago about catchers.

[Boris]

tdarko I just think it's funny that you claim to be a "Moneyball/Sabre" kind of baseball thinker but then every time you start to discuss baseball you regress to the "I'm Joe Morgan and this is the way it's always been" kind of arguments. I mean, I guess I can't really argue your point that Kendall made it to the big leagues because of his speed. You may or may not be correct. But I do know this, every year since 2000 he's been among the top ten catchers in MLB ranked by OPS and often in the top 5. Now answer me this question honestly, do you think Billy Beane paid $7m+ for Kendall's speed or his OPS? Yea, yea I know he's a "gritty" player and does "all the little things" blah, blah, blah. But it's all about the numbers baby. And I'm sticking to my argument that glove to glove time is of relatively little importance when it comes to evaluating catchers. Notice that I'm not saying G/G time is not important. I'm saying relative to other skills it's not that important. Of course you can bring up the extreme cases like Piazza but I'll bet that if a catcher is within 10-15% of the league average time it just doesn't matter very much.

[g-bebe]

I'm changing my prediction.

57 HR/169 RBI

I could be lowballing on the RBI side if he really does hit that many HR.

[Thremp]

tdarko,

I gotta say, that "little stuff" argument is pretty ghey.