Variance

[johnnyrocket]

stay at table when doing well, leave when doing bad and ur stats will increase greatly

[Case Closed]

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stay at table when doing well, leave when doing bad and ur stats will increase greatly

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Does this mean if you're playing bad or running bad? If I am at a table and I lose with top set to inside straight draws a couple of times does that mean I should leave that table?

[daryn]

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stay at table when doing well, leave when doing bad and ur stats will increase greatly

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Does this mean if you're playing bad or running bad? If I am at a table and I lose with top set to inside straight draws a couple of times does that mean I should leave that table?

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it's not really about that.. it's not like, "oh i'm running bad, i gotta get outta here because things will probably continue to go bad for me"

it's more like, if you leave every time you're up say 50 bb, you're basically guaranteeing that you'll never have a 75, 100, or 150bb session, simply because you won't be there to have it.

plus when you are running really hot, the play changes a bit, people respect you more just like when you are running bad they take shots at you constantly. it's just the way it is.

[The Bryce]

As a guy who plays a lot of HU I can definitely confirm that a lot excellent players' play deteriorates noticeably when they drop 50BB or so. They don't necessarily tilt in the conventional sense, but they do lose an edge, probably as a result of not having quite as much energy and not being willing to pay as much attention to play in the current gamestate.

[Abbaddabba]

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plus when you are running really hot, the play changes a bit, people respect you more just like when you are running bad they take shots at you constantly. it's just the way it is.

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I dont see why either of those conditions would be favorable to the next as long as you acknowledge their tendencies and react accordingly.

[Victor]

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plus when you are running really hot, the play changes a bit, people respect you more just like when you are running bad they take shots at you constantly. it's just the way it is.

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I dont see why either of those conditions would be favorable to the next as long as you acknowledge their tendencies and react accordingly.

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its very easy to think of scenarios where players bluffing and semibluffing and valueraising you more will decrease your edge.

[Abbaddabba]

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listen to schneids, as a younger buck i would maximize my losing sessions by playing longer and sit out too quick when running hot. Definitely not smart


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Im guilty of this, but i dont think it really affects you that much as long as you arent playing in tough games. The fact is, even when semi tilting, i have a big enough edge at the 5/10 to 15/30's to win. If i was playing in tough games like you guys do, every small margin makes a huge difference.

The psychological rationale is fact that breaking the "even for the day" threshold is a lot more significant than each dollar after.

Being down $500 is more than twice as bad as being down $1000 for me.

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its very easy to think of scenarios where players bluffing and semibluffing and valueraising you more will decrease your edge.

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Only if they were overly passive to begin with.

If they were more aggressive than they ideally ought to be, any further aggression magnifies the error.

If you assume that more people err on the side of passivity (and that you losing corrects that error), then you're right.

[baronzeus]

This is a fairly interesting thread. I will go out on a limb and say that an overwhelming % of players who experience a 1K BB downswing were not winners in that time. It can be attributed to poor game selection, or more likely, what I call "permatilt." Sometimes when we're losing, we try to adjust our play too much. We start folding because we've gotten screwed too many times by calling down, and we start calling down because we see one or two bluffs. Turns get checked behind with good hands because a scary card hits the board.

When we ignore long term trends and base our decisions off of paranoia, we will lose. Play your game. If you hit a long losing stretch, by all means, re-evaluate, but don't forget your fundamentals. I've been guilty of this in the past and would attribute all my downswings to this. There have been stretches where I've played like a top 10 LHE player, and there have been stretches where I've played like a breakeven 5/10 player. That's how the ball rolls.

Oh, and seriously, play longer when you're winning. 200BB sessions are very sweet, and although rare, usually result from a snowball effect. Just like you start playing worse when you lose (some more than others), your opponents WILL play worse when you start taking their money. The table will suddenly be at your command, and all the money will slowly shift towards you.



PS. I'm not sure if this was aba20's point or not, but the biggest thing that will cost a poker player is laziness. If we don't continue to study, we can't keep up with the competition. Everyone's slowly getting better, and our lack of work leads to a decline in sharpness. The combination can make even the best players average.

[Zero Day]

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When I am losing or on a downswing I don't blame variance or bad luck I look to myself, because I know that I am probably off my game. I take responsibility for the losses and look to improve my game.

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I like this, may give it a shot in my next downswing....

[AlexSem]

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what I call "permatilt." Sometimes when we're losing, we try to adjust our play too much. We start folding because we've gotten screwed too many times by calling down, and we start calling down because we see one or two bluffs. Turns get checked behind with good hands because a scary card hits the board.

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This sums it up nicely.

I'd also like to add that I doubt anyone would be invincible to this and hence they're the superior player - no. It's just that some get hit by bad stretches in rows, others spread out. When you get hit in rows, you start to lose that confidence and what's ultimately worse, is that the people you are playing against start playing -EV but very tough poker where they'll raise turns with questionable hands making it incredibly hard for you, mentally...

So while 2 players may be of equal skill, or one a better player by a slight margin, the better player can get hit by downstreaks in a long stretch and have his confidence destroyed and it might take a few months to fully gain it back. Whereas the slighty worse player continued running up down up down ultimately learning the game and becoming a great player.

So let's assume someone runs bad for 2 months. Then it takes 2-3 months to gain that confidence back. That's 5 months of break-even poker or slight profit.

The other, had a sligth edge but ran well and continued to improve and improve and towards the 3rd month, became a rather good player and hence made a bunch of money with an impressive hourly rate.


So the better player had a 5 month bad streak whereas the slighty worse player is now running the game.


Go figure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]