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#141
05-03-2007, 12:11 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
[ QUOTE ]
- I over heard a great conversation between 3 people at the table about how poker is 100% luck BUT craps is all about the odds and can easily be beaten if you know the numbers. Sharp dressed 30ish guy says his buddies "know all the dice odds" and never loose because "they have an advantage over the house". He's going to get them to teach him the odds pretty soon. I hope he doesn't give up poker! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] If you see this guy again the correct thing to do is convince him to teach his buddies poker in return for the craps lessons... 
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#142
05-03-2007, 12:36 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
[ QUOTE ]
He had 0-FE, believe me. At best he was drawing to 1 overcard in addition to the flush. And in this case he didn't even have the full 9 outs. [/ QUOTE ] I believe you about the 0 FE. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] and if gets multiple callers [a push] will be much more +EV than the call. [/ QUOTE ] Not when you're getting 8:1 pot odds on the call + implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think his implied odds are as good as you think here, as if you do hit (1 in 5) you're only get called by flushes and sets, so you don't even have too much equity then. I guess my other question is, was it at all reasonable to expect to get called in more than one spot? My gut tells me 3 callers and the shove is better, 2 callers is a toss up, and with one, yes, he lost. Unless, just like you knew there was 0 FE, you're leaving out the part where there was no way he was getting multi-way action, I still agree with the shover.
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#143
05-03-2007, 12:56 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
He has 0-FE, and if he hits he flush he will get calls. This is a live game. There's no such thing as "an obvious flush".
Also remember that this is on the turn. He has a naked flushdraw, so he has 9 outs, some of which may be dirty. Figuring him to have 9 clean outs, he has 19% equity. So he'll need at least 3 callers for the push to be breakeven. If he get's 4 callers, then he's getting 5:1 pot odds on a 4:1 chance to hit. A smoothcall is hugely +EV (8:1 pot odds, 4:1 to hit) with no uncertainty. I think it's obviously the best play.
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#146
05-03-2007, 01:25 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] - I over heard a great conversation between 3 people at the table about how poker is 100% luck BUT craps is all about the odds and can easily be beaten if you know the numbers. Sharp dressed 30ish guy says his buddies "know all the dice odds" and never loose because "they have an advantage over the house". He's going to get them to teach him the odds pretty soon. I hope he doesn't give up poker! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] If you see this guy again the correct thing to do is convince him to teach his buddies poker in return for the craps lessons... [/ QUOTE ] I think what "Mr. Craps" really meant (regardless of what he said) was that you can narrow the house edge on craps down to about a 1-2% margin (long-term game) if you play the numbers with the best odds and stay away from all the prop bets. BUT, that takes discipline & alot of it when you are at a table full of hard core gamblers & the cocktail waitress w/her boobies hanging out keeps bringing the free drinks around!!!! I like craps just as much as poker but if you factor in every bet on a crap table that can possibly be made and come up with a mathematical mean...the house has SICK, SICK advantage over the player.
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#147
05-03-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
[ QUOTE ]
I think what "Mr. Craps" really meant (regardless of what he said) was that you can narrow the house edge on craps down to about a 1-2% margin (long-term game) if you play the numbers with the best odds and stay away from all the prop bets. BUT, that takes discipline & alot of it when you are at a table full of hard core gamblers & the cocktail waitress w/her boobies hanging out keeps bringing the free drinks around!!!! I like craps just as much as poker but if you factor in every bet on a crap table that can possibly be made and come up with a mathematical mean...the house has SICK, SICK advantage over the player. [/ QUOTE ] True, but it's possible to get plenty of action on a craps table without giving the house more than 2% or so of your money. If you start with the passline and take double odds, you're down to about 0.6%. Mix in the 6 and 8 at 1.5% and the field at 2.7%, and keep your ridiculous prop bets to nickels and you should be just fine (as long as you consider dropping two cents on the dollar fine, lol). I love craps.
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#148
05-03-2007, 03:01 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think what "Mr. Craps" really meant (regardless of what he said) was that you can narrow the house edge on craps down to about a 1-2% margin (long-term game) if you play the numbers with the best odds and stay away from all the prop bets. BUT, that takes discipline & alot of it when you are at a table full of hard core gamblers & the cocktail waitress w/her boobies hanging out keeps bringing the free drinks around!!!! I like craps just as much as poker but if you factor in every bet on a crap table that can possibly be made and come up with a mathematical mean...the house has SICK, SICK advantage over the player. [/ QUOTE ] True, but it's possible to get plenty of action on a craps table without giving the house more than 2% or so of your money. If you start with the passline and take double odds, you're down to about 0.6%. Mix in the 6 and 8 at 1.5% and the field at 2.7%, and keep your ridiculous prop bets to nickels and you should be just fine (as long as you consider dropping two cents on the dollar fine, lol). [/ QUOTE ] I seriously don't give a rat's rear what sick sick odds the house has over the loonies at the craps table. I don't feel any need at all to put money on the things that have 5% to 15% house edges. I just appreciate that there are people willing to make those wagers so the casinos keep the craps tables open. And speaking of the worst strategies ever overhead... I don't see any need to ever play the field... 2.7%? Nope. Find a craps table with 10x odds and just keep the pass and come filled with full odds. You'll stay plenty busy with plenty of action and the house will have only a 0.187% edge.
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#149
05-03-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
[ QUOTE ]
I tried to explain to him why that spot is an insta-call [/ QUOTE ] why??? seriously, why do so many of you give any kind of real advice at the table?
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#150
05-03-2007, 03:38 PM
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Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
About the craps comments.....I listened long enough to hear the guy says his buddies told him to keep doubling his "hard-way" and "horn" bets when the missed and it would be "hard too loose". Trust me, this guy, nor his buddies could really know much about odds.lol
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