Biggest story of our time: our self-extinction by Mark Steyn

[HeavilyArmed]

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Was the world more polluted when the earliest humans lived in caves? Somehow that seems doubtful.

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You would not need to ask this question if you lived near an indian reservation.

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Was the world more polluted when the earliest humans lived in caves? Somehow that seems doubtful.

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You would not need to ask this question if you lived near an indian reservation.

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Are you suggesting that Indians living on reservations today are living in the same manner they did before North America became civilized?

I'm guessing they don't, but maybe I'm wrong.

[HeavilyArmed]

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The population of posters here is abnormally young, and even the majority of them will grow up someday.


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I know they are young. I pray they grow up. They have so far to go.

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I don't think the issue can be dismissed as "minor", since its seen as the number one social problem facing the US and Western Europe.

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This is a small fraction of the total human population. Will other countries / cultures face these same issues, or is the problem built into our social security system?

[Copernicus]

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I don't think the issue can be dismissed as "minor", since its seen as the number one social problem facing the US and Western Europe.

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This is a small fraction of the total human population. Will other countries / cultures face these same issues, or is the problem built into our social security system?

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Im not sure what your second question is asking. Yes, all countries with zero or negative population growth will find their economies stressed, including their Social Security systems, and virtually every country has some sort of SS system. (I helped design Saudi Arabia's in the 70s..an interesting project when there are up to 4 spousal dependents!)

[fun160]

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Virtually every country has some sort of SS system. (I helped design Saudi Arabia's in the 70s..an interesting project when there are up to 4 spousal dependents!)

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What are your thoughts on saving the U.S. Social Security system with Chilean-style privatization?

[Copernicus]

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Virtually every country has some sort of SS system. (I helped design Saudi Arabia's in the 70s..an interesting project when there are up to 4 spousal dependents!)

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What are your thoughts on saving the U.S. Social Security system with Chilean-style privatization?

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I dont think that any system that relies entirely on private savings accounts is tenable in the long run. There are 3 problems with private accounts:

- people are notoriously bad at investing
- even good investors are subject to market fluctuations, and withdrawal of principal is highest as a percentage of assets when the markets are down, making recovery even more difficult
- there is no protection for outliving your retirement savings account such as is provided in a defined benefit system

If there were a mandatory transition to insured annuities at retirement some of those problems would be solved, but it adds an element of risk for market fluctuations just prior to retirement.

This is the most complete approach to SS reform Ive seen.

[Rick Nebiolo]

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Linear extrapolation of a static set of variables is always the mistake of doomsdayers. A decline in birthrates does not lead inevitabley to "self extinction", just as an increase in consumption does not lead inevitabley to "total collapse of our environment". - natedogg

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No disagreement here. Post and Essay titles tend to be hyperbolic in order to gain attention.

We won't "self-extinct"; at some point social policies and ideas will change and economic incentives will be so great that advanced cultures (even secular) will probably start having more children again. And I think (from reading some of your past posts) we both agree that advanced societies produce things efficiently with far less pollution and environmental consequences than undeveloped societies.

~ Rick

[fun160]

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If we don't take conscious steps to lower our own population, it will be lowered for us by famine, disease, war, etc. I feel like in the future people need to make a moral choice to have two or fewer children.

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People have been making similar (inaccurate) gloom-and-doom predictions for centuries. There's no reason to believe yours will be accurate.

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I ran a simulation. If by some miracle every person in the world decided to have one child (per couple), the human population would drop under 2 billion within 100 years, drastically cutting down our demand on natural resources and the conflict that goes with this demand.

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What is desirable about "drastically cutting down our demand on natural resources"? The "invisible hand" of free-market capitalism is wonderful at producing more goods (or suitable substitutes) in times of high demand. Your argument might have some merit if we were in danger of running out of natural resources, but we're not.

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The lower population, combined with continued advances in technology, should allow the world wide average standard of living to sky rocket.

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There's a high likelihood that the "continued advances in technology" would grind to a halt if we lost 70% of the world's population, as you deem desirable.

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All of this because of a world wide, collective, moral decision to do something about the human condition on Earth.

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If you want to improve the human condition, instead of reducing population, we just need to reduce totalitarianism. There is an inexorable link between freedom and prosperity.

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The simulation was crude, but it did age the population. I did not simulate any of the resulting social effects. Supporting the elderly would be an issue, but a minor one when compared to unchecked population growth.

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If you believe an aging population is a "minor issue" I suggest you read this article. Enjoy.

[The once and future king]

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In other words, there won't be any white people? Oh my God, what a horrible crisis. How will the human race survive in the style to which it has become accustomed?

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Still waiting for the Islamic car, the African iPod and the Mexican Mars mission.

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The Arabs are still waiting for a european/western numeral system.