Hand from Borgata WPT - Page 15

gobboboy · #**141** 10-02-2007, 07:02 PM

Reading the thread I immediately thought "okay, he raised preflop while we thought he had a huge hand, checked the flop and just called the turn on the worst board ever for our bottom set, but didn't get upset when he 'mistakenly' raised."

As soon as you said the key was that he didn't get upset, I definitely disagreed that he didn't have a monster. I see this line from a huge hand too much, and it's really one of the easiest betting patterns to see through. Like you said, the only thing is that AK is in his range but it is likely a smaller part of his range, as is TT.

Honestly my instincts when I was reading the hands told me that he had AA/KK pretty much always but that could just be because you posted the hand with a ton of mystery and I was looking for things that weren't there. But at the same time, this line is pretty seethrough, it's just [censored] hard to fold a set live.

His description followed by the way you told the hand tells me he has a monster pretty much always unless he's making a horrid turn call with QQ, and it really sucks that I couldn't make these judgment calls in a post before you posted the answer/solutions because I was finding it very interesting.

My line, check/call the river if you think he has AK a lot because we know all hands in his range are strong enough to bet the river when checked to unless you think you have a read strong enough to check/fold.

In my opinion if he bets the river very strongly you can fold because I see very few people check the flop with AK unless they are huge clowns.

ZeeJustin · #**142** 10-02-2007, 07:04 PM

Lucky, you said something about the key being about the 1k and 5k chip amounts, and then later and edited to say something about the way he said call. You also never even said that it's a fold. Maybe you had the right logic, but that wasn't clear from your post.

Victor · #**143** 10-02-2007, 07:04 PM

if ak is in his range you are 55/45 on the turn. i dont see how this is a clear fold. i dont see how his range is weighted towards aa on the turn.

ZeeJustin · #**144** 10-02-2007, 07:16 PM

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if ak is in his range you are 55/45 on the turn. i dont see how this is a clear fold. i dont see how his range is weighted towards aa on the turn.

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1) AK is a lot more vulnerable than AA. He is more likely to bet it on the flop.
2) People slowplay AA more often than AK.
3) His preflop raise looked really strong.
4) AK is both less likely to want to call the turn, and also less likely to want to angle-shot raise the turn. What does he do against an all-in after angle shotting it like that? Are we taking advantage of the angle-shot, or do we have a hand? Puts him in a rough spot and the line makes little sense.
5) On this turn, he's a lot more likely to be behind with AK than AA.

mastr · #**145** 10-02-2007, 07:21 PM

umm i think everyone intelligent that read this thread already made that conclusion justin. I am glad you're posting again though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

WarDekar · #**146** 10-02-2007, 07:32 PM

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umm i think everyone intelligent that read this thread already made that conclusion justin. I am glad you're posting again though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Yeah that "key" was pretty lame... Why didn't you just tell us to read the freaking hand instead of some stupid treasure hunt?

The jist of it was said like 20 different times, btw

ZeeJustin · #**147** 10-02-2007, 07:35 PM

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The jist of it was said like 20 different times, btw

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That's not true at all. Lots of people said the obvious, that his line is consistent with meaning to raise, but no one said the converse, that his line is not consistent with wanting to call.

Ship Ship McGipp · #**148** 10-02-2007, 07:36 PM

zee justin luckychewy is a better poker player than you anyways he doesn't need your acceptance!

mikeJ · #**149** 10-02-2007, 07:36 PM

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the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

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I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

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A couple things.

So my above post is wrong, because i derived the correct range incorrectly partly using his live misclick?

Also, why must he be angle shooting, he could flat AA hoping that the armenian raises, or flat calling because he's bad and doesn't realize he needs to start building this pot being 200+bbs deep. After all, we are assuming he checked the flop w/ AA when he should probably have bet, trying to build a pot (unless he's counting on armenian guy to bet very often when checked to there)

Is it just me or did the "key" turn out to be a bit of a let down for anyone else? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

ZeeJustin · #**150** 10-02-2007, 07:42 PM

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the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

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I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

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A couple things.

So my above post is wrong, because i derived the correct range incorrectly partly using his live misclick?

Also, why must he be angle shooting, he could flat AA hoping that the armenian raises, or flat calling because he's bad and doesn't realize he needs to start building this pot being 200+bbs deep. After all, we are assuming he checked the flop w/ AA when he should probably have bet, trying to build a pot (unless he's counting on armenian guy to bet very often when checked to there)

Is it just me or did the "key" turn out to be a bit of a let down for anyone else? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Well that's another way of looking at the problem that no one said. Even if we know he meant to call the turn, it is still most likely correct to fold to his accidental raise.