LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[Mark_K]

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oh yeah, i wasn't around to protect anyone last night; sorry about that, as it cost us a 1/x shot at me protecting whom they targetted...i'll be sure to pm my protect in advance in future nights so that doesn't happen again

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Has Villager-Nich EVER sounded like this????

[Zurvan]

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One thing we need to put the math geniuses on is putting together some numbers on Sauron's knowledge of Frodo's identity. IE: how confident can they be of his identity? 20%? 80%? I have no idea, and can't figure it out. Somebody should, though.

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In case it got missed before. Hopefully, somebody will think I'm quoting someone else here, and actually read the post.

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Do you have any idea how complicated this is? I've thought about it a few times and thrown it right out. However, given the fact that they're getting 2 names a night, and there are some role claims sitting around, I'd say they're between "somewhat close" and "pretty close". There's a lot of info for them.

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I'm going to ballpark it and say "I could never do this in a million years". I was just hoping someone else had a clue. Doesn't hurt to ask, right?

Oh, I know who could do this: nich & herbie. They're the math wizards.

[Nicholasp27]

yeah, i'm responding because they are current posts about me

i'm not going back a day to look at posts and responding to those...i don't have time

i'm just browsing here between queries to see what is currently going on

anyway, why are we focusing on me/herbie today when we know we can't lynch us...focus on finding the other wolves besides herbie...we learn more from that than focusing on us

[Nicholasp27]

so sauron gets 2 random living villagers each night? so they could technically be duplicates from one night to another?

[Mark_K]

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yeah, i'm responding because they are current posts about me

i'm not going back a day to look at posts and responding to those...i don't have time

i'm just browsing here between queries to see what is currently going on

anyway, why are we focusing on me/herbie today when we know we can't lynch us...focus on finding the other wolves besides herbie...we learn more from that than focusing on us

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That's not completely true.. Middle of D2, you were attacked and immediately responded in the NEXT post.

[Nicholasp27]

exactly; i responded immediately; if i was responding to a day-old post, u'd know i was looking back and then i'd be lying

but i'm just looking in at random times and reply to what i see if necessary

[Mark_K]

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exactly; i responded immediately; if i was responding to a day-old post, u'd know i was looking back and then i'd be lying

but i'm just looking in at random times and reply to what i see if necessary

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Wow, so you randomly checked on day2 and there just happened to be a post attacking you (1st post of an attack BTW) and you responded? Lucky you... Hmmm

[sighing]

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[Zurvan]

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[ 2 ] chuckleslovakian
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Gross

[Jack Bando]

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so sauron gets 2 random living villagers each night? so they could technically be duplicates from one night to another?

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According to Sighing (I asked him a few days ago) yes. And some of the names could be dead (whoever we lynched after D1 that was a villager) So Sauron has 0-10 names that aren't Frodo.