STTF SNG->cash thread - Page 143

microbet · #**1421** 10-08-2007, 05:06 PM

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23o, JT, QT, AA, KK, 77

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He needs to fold 28.8% of his range on top of folding 23o to have the equivalent cEV of checking behind. This is 12.4 hands. Or JT plus 0.4 of a hand.

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23o, 24o, JT, QT, AA, KK, 77

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He needs to fold 22.6% of his range on top of folding 23o and 24o to have the equivalent cEV of checking behind. This is 12.4 hands. Or JT plus 0.4 of a hand.

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The percent of his total range changes, but not the percent of his hands that are > 88. Right?

DevinLake · #**1422** 10-08-2007, 05:08 PM

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23o, JT, QT, AA, KK, 77

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He needs to fold 28.8% of his range on top of folding 23o to have the equivalent cEV of checking behind. This is 12.4 hands. Or JT plus 0.4 of a hand.

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23o, 24o, JT, QT, AA, KK, 77

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He needs to fold 22.6% of his range on top of folding 23o and 24o to have the equivalent cEV of checking behind. This is 12.4 hands. Or JT plus 0.4 of a hand.

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The percent of his total range changes, but not the percent of his hands that are > 88. Right?

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Right, for this specific example.

ChrisV · #**1423** 10-08-2007, 10:08 PM

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cha59 KK hand: Bet the flop you big girl.

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What are you trying to accomplish with this?

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Not give a free card to various one pair hands and draws essentially. Depending on what SB and BB are like I may also want to turn my hand into a bluff against Ax.

Dr_Jeckyl_00 · #**1424** 10-08-2007, 10:16 PM

Did I play this ok?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($24.65)
MP1 ($24.75)
MP2 ($31.70)
CO ($15.30)
Button ($3.75)
Hero ($36.05)
BB ($7.75)
UTG ($18.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.5, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25.

Flop: ($4.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4, MP2 calls $4.

Turn: ($16.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets $26.2 (All-In), Hero calls $26.20, UTG folds.

River: ($0) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $69.15

Dr_Jeckyl_00 · #**1425** 10-08-2007, 10:20 PM

how's my line all streets? What do I do on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($24.40)
BB ($17.80)
UTG ($23.65)
UTG+1 ($16.85)
MP1 ($50.55)
Hero ($30.55)
MP3 ($15.55)
CO ($23.55)
Button ($45.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.5, 5 folds, UTG calls $1.25, MP1 calls $1.25.

Flop: ($4.85) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG calls $3, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($10.85) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9.

River: ($28.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $10.15 (All-In), Hero?

Dr_Jeckyl_00 · #**1426** 10-08-2007, 10:34 PM

How's my line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($8.75)
MP2 ($44.30)
CO ($9.40)
Button ($16.35)
SB ($29.40)
Hero ($25)
UTG ($22.80)
UTG+1 ($14.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.

Flop: ($2.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, CO calls $1.75.

Turn: ($6.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.5, Hero calls $2.50.

River: ($11.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.9 (All-In), Hero calls $3.90.

Final Pot: $18.90

ChrisV · #**1427** 10-08-2007, 10:58 PM

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This is incorrect. You still need him to fold 40% of his range that beats you. If he folds 30% of his range that beats you, then the EV of betting will be:

0.1 * $300 (for when he folds the hands that we beat)
+ 0.9 * 0.3 * $300 (the other 90%, he folds 30%, we win pot)
- 0.9 * 0.7 * $200 (the other 90%, he calls 70%, we lose bet)

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I think we are just a little mixed up in wording.

When I say he needs to fold 30% of his range that beats you, I actually meant he needs to fold 30% of his range.

So, not 30% of the 90% range. 30% of the 100% range.

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Um, OK, but that's even more wrong. The answer for his 100% range, as I said in my post above, is 46%. We need him to fold MORE of his total range when we beat a larger range, not less. Think about it. If we beat 90% of his hands, then if we're betting as a bluff we need him to fold much more than 90% of his hands. If he folds 91% of them we're going to win the pot 1% of the time and lose our bet 9% of the time (the other 90% is the same outcome as a check behind). This will not work out well.

If you meant 30% of his total range on top of the 10% we already beat, this is also wrong. It's 36%.

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Or maybe Chris was being sarcastic and saying "of course we lose when he folds everything we beat and calls with everything that beats us, ldo."

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This is correct. I was trying to point out the absurdity of saying that he needs to fold some constant range.

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The percent of his total range changes, but not the percent of his hands that are > 88. Right?

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Right, for this specific example.

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FOR THIS SPECIFIC EXAMPLE?! GDFSGDFDG. How about you come up with a specific example where it does change?

We want to determine what the EV difference is between betting and checking in the examples microbet gave. For 23o and 24o, there is no EV difference between betting and checking. Either way we simply win the pot. Yes? Therefore any EV difference between betting and checking must be wholly due to what he does with the rest of his range. Yes? Therefore in both cases we want to determine what he does with the range { JT, QT, AA, KK, 77 }. It's the same damn problem in both cases. You can tack as many extra hands that you beat on as you like and it reduces to exactly the same thing. HOW DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THIS IT TILTS ME SO BAD.

ChrisV · #**1428** 10-08-2007, 11:16 PM

DrJeckyl,

You should be running PT and a heads up display and have stats on these guys. Stats are super important.

Readless, the AA hand looks good.

The AK hand you have to call the river as your pot odds are too strong. Your line is OK but versus the majority of players I would move in on the turn. They won't fold worse two pairs, and if you make a standard bet most players are folding Ax, KJ etc anyway, so the cases that matter are where they're drawing. The problem with this board is that a combo draw could have a ton of outs (QTss for instance has 17), so I have to bet big to protect my hand. I would bet smaller on the turn though if up against a weak player who would call with stuff like Ax and KJ.

The JJ hand is impossible to answer without some kind of read. Some players are so tight that I'd check fold the turn to them. Versus others I might look to checkraise allin on the flop. However I think regardless of opponent you should checkraise allin on the turn rather than call, you don't want to let them check behind on the river if they just have a 7 or something.

DevinLake · #**1429** 10-08-2007, 11:20 PM

ChrisV, it tilts me so bad that you have not understood that I stopped arguing this point a while ago. I then created a chart to see under what conditions the act of betting produces the same cEV as checking behind.

I did the math, the math is right. Maybe my description of the axis of charts are a little confusing. But, the math is right!

You keep telling me it's wrong, with out proving it. Take the example of when your hand is good 38%. Calculate the cEV of checking behind. Now, knowing your hand is good 38% of the time and he fold at least that much. Figure out how much more often he has to fold for the bet to be the same cEV has checking behind.

If you get different numbers...well, I'd be baffled. He has to fold a total of like 62% of the time or something like that for a bet to yield the same cEV has checking behind.

This is just raw numbers. Do with it what you want. Make whatever conclusions what you want. I don't give a [censored]. I didn't make that chart to back up my argument. I made that chart to help study the decision of checking or betting for future knowledge.

Our discussion was over, because I thought I conceded we were on the same page. But, then you told me my chart was wrong...which it is not.

ChrisV · #**1430** 10-08-2007, 11:34 PM

Devin,

I didn't understand the chart because the y-axis is labeled "% of villain's range > 88 that he folds", which implied to me that it represented a percentage of "villain's range > 88", which it doesn't.

In the example where your hand is good 38% of the time, he has to fold 38% + (40% * 62%) = 62.8% of the time, so I guess we have the same answer. What I don't understand is how your chart is relevant to deciding whether or not to bet. When deciding whether to bet, you evaluate whether or not you can make him fold 40% of the hands in his range that beat you. How often your hand is good never enters into consideration. You still don't seem to have acknowledged that, which is why I'm still arguing.

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