LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[Zurvan]

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Again, yes it a hit and if the stars align we could squeek a little more usefulness out of him.

But remember the wolves know who the "real" Aragorn is in this game. At this point in time, they can kill him at will. His value to the village has dropped...


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Yes, they can kill him at will. But, better him than another villager, do you not agree?

Once they kill aragorn (which they will have to, eventually), then we get the other. This is an easy decision, and there shouldn't be this much resistance to taking the safe path.

The village is way behind here, we can't take risks.

[Stephen H]

Zurvan, I think we have to decide between doctors ourselves. Two reasons:

1) What if the fake doctor *IS* the roleblocker?
2) [ QUOTE ]
Aragon: Angel, cannot protect Frodo, Sam, or Gollum. 50% protection on Gandalf, Eowyn, and himself.

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All our doctor is good for is blocking kills on random villa's until Frodo dies. Then he loses his power anyways. Since the wolves obviously know who the real angel is, he's useless.

The way I see it, we have a 50/50 shot (at worst) of lynching a wolf between them. The issue is almost certianly NEVER going to resolve itself - they don't need to kill the angel. Unless you think Frodo can live 3 more days and then come out on day 8?

[Zurvan]

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Timing is too good. Whatever, too many languages to handle.

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I understand the words, I jsut don't know what you mean. How can my timing be "good" in a response to a post?

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Are you ever going to answer this question? Or is it easier to pretend I never asked it, because it's totally spurious?

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er, your argument is spurious. My question is very valid.

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<font color="red">CLOWNTABLE</font>

This question was asked of you on Monday. You have yet to answer. You should answer now.

[Mark_K]

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Nobody seems to feel like commenting on my suggestion.

kill chuckleslovakian

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Which one? Who did nich peek?

VR, I really don't think Chuck is a likely wolf after the way the votes went yesterday.

[FortFun]

I am going to be gone the rest of today, and tonight (wife's Grandmas house with no internet [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]). I agree that we can't vote either Nich or Herbie yet. Chuckles is our best bet today.

[Zurvan]

Stephen: they DO need to kill the Doctor. In the extreme case where they do not kill Aragorn, and we do not lynch him, we end up in a final 3 where 1 villager knows the wolf for certain. This is good for the village, as it cuts in half the number of villagers that can make a mistake for the final wolf to jump on &amp; win the game. This means the wolves HAVE to kill him before must lynch. Well before must lynch, in fact, because they have to get rid of him while other wolves are still alive.

In the less extreme case, if we lynch the doctor today, then the wolves don't have to kill him at night. Worst case, the fake doctor is the witch king. They leave the doctor alive until the seer comes out, role-block aragorn &amp; kill Frodo. They still have to eat the doctor at night to avoid the situation above. By eating the doctor, they leave any confirmed's that the seer reveals alive for one more day. Us lynching the doctor will directly translate to one extra confirmed villager death.

Do you see, now, why we can't choose between Herbie &amp; Nich?

Even if leaving him alive doesn't get us any extra peeks, it does force the wolves to use a night kill on him, OR put is in a good position for final 3.

[Mark_K]

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Zurvan, I think we have to decide between doctors ourselves. Two reasons:

1) What if the fake doctor *IS* the roleblocker?
2) [ QUOTE ]
Aragon: Angel, cannot protect Frodo, Sam, or Gollum. 50% protection on Gandalf, Eowyn, and himself.

[/ QUOTE ]

All our doctor is good for is blocking kills on random villa's until Frodo dies. Then he loses his power anyways. Since the wolves obviously know who the real angel is, he's useless.

The way I see it, we have a 50/50 shot (at worst) of lynching a wolf between them. The issue is almost certianly NEVER going to resolve itself - they don't need to kill the angel. Unless you think Frodo can live 3 more days and then come out on day 8?

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Stephen, You're preaching to the choir here.. Amen I say...

That's a great post of what I was thinking and trying to say.

[Stephen H]

You're assuming we GET to a final three. What if must lynch is with 2-3 wolves still alive? We're far enough behind that we have to consider it.

I'm going to think about what that means with a must-lynch round of 5 or even round of 7. You're right that the real aragorn is basically a confirmed right now.

[fmxda]

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You're right that the real aragorn is basically a confirmed right now.

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So why take a flip on lynching a confirmed??

[Zurvan]

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You're assuming we GET to a final three. What if must lynch is with 2-3 wolves still alive? We're far enough behind that we have to consider it.

I'm going to think about what that means with a must-lynch round of 5 or even round of 7. You're right that the real aragorn is basically a confirmed right now.

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I see no downside to leaving the two of them alive. Unless we knew for a fact that the fake is Sauron. Even then, I wouldn't want to have to decide. I really feel like the chances of giving them a free dead confirmed is a mistake at this point.

One thing we need to put the math geniuses on is putting together some numbers on Sauron's knowledge of Frodo's identity. IE: how confident can they be of his identity? 20%? 80%? I have no idea, and can't figure it out. Somebody should, though.