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#131
05-08-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Clark's values are probably correct however, why would you not just bet them seperatly then, rather than better this prop. [/ QUOTE ] Because the prop gives you +360 or whatever and the parlay will likely pay +240 or less. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I see where my regards to this bet having 'value' is incorrect. I am also wondering something about this. In horse racing the odds are set completely by the bettors is that not correct? So saying that +360 has value may be correct in regards to the wagers you could make on the races themselves, however thinking the wager is the correct wager would not be correct because the horse's chances of winning the next two races (as history has shown us) will be overvalued. Just because all the bettors think that the odds are 6/5 or 2/5 does not mean those are the 'correct' odds on that horse. If this is the case, then I am betting this at -400 because I think it is the correct wager. 
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#132
05-08-2007, 03:54 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
Since you like history, here's something to consider. 2yo champs who also won the Derby since 1950.
1955 - Needles 1971 - Riva Ridge 1972 - Secretariat 1974 - Foolish Pleasure 1976 - Seattle Slew 1977 - Affirmed 1978 - Spectacular Bid 2006 - Street Sense Also, you should live in Vegas. At Wynn, the line is +270/-320.
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#134
05-08-2007, 04:51 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, but ignore Chelokee at your peril. We didn't know Bernardini would be Bernardini either, he was a 10-1 choice, right? [/ QUOTE ] He was 13-1, but was a pretty well known horse. The Barbaro hype led to some good numbers in the Preakness last year. I think Street Sense is a better horse than Barbaro, but I don't see him going off at 1-2. I've actually liked King of the Roxy better than Chelokee. Of course betting on him in the Juvenile and the Santa Anita did very little for me. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#136
05-08-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Didn't someone also say that if he loses the Preakness, he might not race at Belmont? Further value for "yes" if true. [/ QUOTE ] No, its not. [/ QUOTE ] Why? The original terms of the bet said he has to race in both.
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#137
05-08-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
New, I dont think it would further value the 'yes' by losing, and if it does it a moot point because the yes loses. In all seriousness I want to know if my thinking from the above question about horseracing not having a "linesmaker" has any merit. Clark, you have made some good points in this thread honestly but I feel strongly about my wager and if Im wrong Im wrong and Ive learned my lesson to listen to the people who know more. I bet the yes last year on barbaro and got screwed when he got hurt a lot of things can happen outside of just running the race that have an effect on the value IMO.
BTW, sorry I dont live in Vegas Im not as lucky as you I guess.
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#139
05-08-2007, 05:34 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Didn't someone also say that if he loses the Preakness, he might not race at Belmont? Further value for "yes" if true. [/ QUOTE ] No, its not. [/ QUOTE ] Why? The original terms of the bet said he has to race in both. [/ QUOTE ] Not where I bet.
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#140
05-08-2007, 05:36 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
Where I bet this wager it says just "must race in the preakness" [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Yours from a few days ago.
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