durr vs sbrugby HU

[Greeksquared]

I actually can't believe no has brought anything up about EV calculations, which is the only way you can determine what optimal strategy is here. I am going to look at EV of calling the third raise and seeing the flop as opposed to just pushing PF.

Pushing PF:

When it comes back to Durr there is 8100+2700 = 10800 and sbrugs has 5700 left in his stack so therefore it would be a total of 5400 + 5700=11100 to win 10800+5700=16500. From here we can find out exactly what percent ahead durr needs to be neutral EV.

Letting x being this we have:

x*16500 - (1-x)*11100 = 0

and we get x = 11100/27600 = .4

So if durr thinks he has greater than 40 percent edge in the hand he should probably push. But, if he thinks he get an edge so insurmountable after the flop that by calling he will have an ever better edge then he should call. Against what sbrugs had he only has 28 percent equity and thus even knowing this should call or fold. sbrugs had about as bad as a hand that durr could be up against.

But, of course Durr does not know what sbrugs had. The only real way to determine Durr's true PF equity would be to ask sbrugs what his 5 bet range is. I haven't seen him play so I will just assume that he doens't 5 bet light. From running some simulations on twodimes.net I would say that durr's mean PF equity is in the range from 35-45 pecent. So, pushing here is probably neutral EV.

Now calling PF:

After Durrs call there is 8100*2 = 16200 in the pot. We are going to assume that sbrugs pushes here every single time. Therefore durr needs just 5700/ 21900 = 26 percent equity to make calling correct.

Now this is where things start getting tricky and where simulation becomes huge. We have to determine how many flops are favorable for durr and to what degree are they favorable.

For example we need to determine what percentage of flops durr will have an 80 percent edge after the flop, what percentage durr will have 50 percent after the flop and so on. Taking a weighted average of all these flops will determine durr's true EV of calling. This is of course with respect to sbrugs' 5-bet PF range.

The situation here is somewhat interesting because we know exactly what our opponent is going to be doing on the flop. This allows us to get away from flops that completey miss us such as 322r. True we might fold the best hand here, but against sbrugs range we can fold. Again, all of this analysis is against his range.

So playing against sbrugs' range where he will move in on every single flop and our hand is practically neutral EV to push preflop then it is always correct to call preflop no matter what our opponent has left. It allows us to correctly fold on unfavorable flops. This could even mean that against sbrugs' range there are only 1% of highly unfavorable flops (though this isnt necessarily true in practice) that we are better off just calling. Basically here he can fold all flops that don't give him at least 26 percent equity against sbrugies range.

Again, for instance if those 1% percent of flops lead to ceratin death (where you actually die if you continue to the river) then you would always just call here and then call away the rest of your money on a safe flop.

Thus, there is no point in dying when you don't have to.

DURRRRRRRRR!!!!!

[Jourdain]

Personally I would never call a raise on this board, but durrrr does:

Full Tilt Poker Game #1251205225: Table Erwin (6 max) - $100/$200 - Pot Limit Omaha - 14:57:54 ET - 2006/11/15
Seat 2: sbrugby ($41,373)
Seat 4: durrrr ($27,997.50)
Seat 5: Jake38 ($21,686)
Seat 6: howisitfeellike ($7,400)
durrrr posts the small blind of $100
Jake38 posts the big blind of $200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
howisitfeellike folds
sbrugby raises to $700
durrrr calls $600
Jake38 folds
*** FLOP *** [6d 5h 2s]
durrrr has 15 seconds left to act
durrrr checks
sbrugby bets $1,250
durrrr calls $1,250
*** TURN *** [6d 5h 2s] [4s]
durrrr bets $3,000
sbrugby calls $3,000
*** RIVER *** [6d 5h 2s 4s] [2h]
durrrr bets $4,800
sbrugby raises to $18,500
durrrr has 15 seconds left to act
durrrr calls $13,700
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sbrugby shows [4h Qd 4c Qh] (a full house, Fours full of Twos)
durrrr mucks
sbrugby wins the pot ($47,098) with a full house, Fours full of Twos
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $47,100 | Rake $2
Board: [6d 5h 2s 4s 2h]
Seat 2: sbrugby (button) collected ($47,098)
Seat 4: durrrr (small blind) mucked
Seat 5: Jake38 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: howisitfeellike didn't bet (folded)

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems almost everyone in this thread understands this except you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Situations like this have a very interesting and surprising property. This space is too small to elaborate.

[CrushinFelt]

I love skipping over BTs posts

[TheRempel]

I think the most telling part of this argument is that BluffThis! considers himself to be 8.5/10 in terms of PLO skill but is unwilling to play less than 4 handed unless it's to 'start a game'. He is critiquing a HU hand FFS.