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#131
10-31-2007, 03:19 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] or is there a legitimate reason for Texas to be favored here. Some injury or something that I'm missing. [/ QUOTE ] there a lot more texas natives betting texas than there are oklahoma natives betting OKSU (they bet OU). the talent base at texas is significantly better than that of OSU, though that is qualified somewhat by systemic changes in the NCAA provisos.. both teams are inconsistent. when better talent plays inconsistently, they may play better than they appear; when lesser talent plays inconsistently, they often play worse than they appear. it is hard to give stats their proper weight in these circumstances. when betting the big 12, i have a tendency to give more weight to the history of two teams than i might in other conferences. texas is 19-2 against OkSU, and has won the last 9 consecutive games. getting texas -3 is actually something of a bargain, in the light of these observations. [/ QUOTE ] I would assume your entire bankroll is on Notre Dame and their 43-game winning streak against Navy then? ND -3.5 is an amazing bargain in light of those circumstances!!!!!!11111 
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#132
10-31-2007, 04:30 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Sometimes I wonder if tlt's just leveling us all. I'm leaning toward no since he's so consistent with his awkward grammar, and that would be tough for someone to maintain with a gimmick account, but it's hard to imagine he believes some of the stuff he says.
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#133
10-31-2007, 05:39 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
i believe the question was: why is texas favored in this matchup. nowhere did i say, take texas. and i will repeat, the number, though a betting oppurtunity if you so wish, is not without reason.
osu has forced only 11 sacks on the season; they are giving up >300yds in the air, and an average of 430yds a game. they were torched by TROY for god's sake. it would appear that the return of Savage has helped their offensive output, although two of their recent wins against a beleaguered a&m (by 1) sam houston (div 2) are not stellar (no win against a d-2 team is stellar, by definition). people will point to the win against k-ste as if it were a defining moment in osu's rise to glory, but i differ. k-ste plays a 3-4, virtually a rarity in college defenses, and fields an under-sized nose tackle in the bargain (285). the other two down linemen are listed at roughly 260 apiece: osu put a center and two guards at the point of attack weighing 313, 338, and 310. after k-ste responded to this with 8 men in the box, that left them vulnerable to outside runs and the pass. against texas' 4-3 and DTs who weigh 320 and 300, that's not going to be so easy. additionally, analysts believe that texas has an outstanding crew of corners, and if that's true (i have to say, the way the deep ball in the OU game hurt them contests that belief), osu's air game may not have that great a day either. their aerial attack pretty much begins and ends with Adarius Bowman and TE Brandon Pettigrew. Even though bowman is sure to be all conference, and a likely 1st rounder in the draft, one player is not enough against a texas squad better than average in the secondary: this is not OU here. in 2006, the texas team finished the year at 9 and 3, and qualified for a non BCS alamo bowl. they have a chance, though difficult, to finish the year with the same record. i can see them doing it, neither osu nor texas tech are complete teams by any stretch of the imagination; but i wouldn't bet them to do so. you guys really need to start looking at the game before you start hooting and hollering. you just look foolish. but then, anyone who takes the Sagarin rating seriously deserves to look that way. imo.
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#134
10-31-2007, 05:41 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
ugh...the worst case
he is serious and he cannot breakdown teams, shemes, and gameplans for crap
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#135
10-31-2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I would assume your entire bankroll is on Notre Dame and their 43-game winning streak against Navy then? ND -3.5 is an amazing bargain in light of those circumstances!!!!!!11111 [/ QUOTE ] now, there's a finely tuned mind at work. really, bill, i respect your comments generally, but that's an awfully stupid leap, isn't it? to talk about a 7-2 team in the same breath as a 1-7 team? and, actually, the ND line would have been greater all year but for their enormous fan base. you do recognize the size of a fan base as a strong influence on the posted line, don't you? tlt
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#136
10-31-2007, 06:32 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Pls don't feed the trollz.
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#137
10-31-2007, 06:48 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines *DELETED*
Post deleted by thelyingthief
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#138
10-31-2007, 06:53 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
One thing I should mention since I've been pimping GT in this thread is that the Jackets are 1-7 coming off a bye under Chan Gailey. I don't think it's enough to make up for the other factors in play, and it shouldn't be quite as significant on 12 days rest instead of 14, but it's definitely something to be mindful of.
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#139
10-31-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
One thing I should mention since I've been pimping GT in this thread is that the Jackets are 1-7 coming off a bye under Chan Gailey. I don't think it's enough to make up for the other factors in play, and it shouldn't be quite as significant on 12 days rest instead of 14, but it's definitely something to be mindful of. [/ QUOTE ] Should probably also point out how indignant you were that I would have the audacity to claim that BC was better than GT on a neutral in that week's opener thread. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#140
10-31-2007, 09:57 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
the fact that they are under chan gailey period is cause for concern imo
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