All 3 Boston teams winning the championship??

[Assani Fisher]

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I see it as something like 53% to win in the first round, 55% in the ALCS, and 58% to win the World Series.


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I used to be a bookmaker offshore and in Las Vegas, and I would've been out of a job pretty quick if I thought this Red Sox team only had a 53% chance of beating a wild-card team in a single game, let alone a five-game series with home-ice advantage.

Not to whip out my e-penis or anything, but I'll lay all the -120 you want on the Sox in the first round, and all the -150 you want on any other rounds they play.

I'm quite confident that when October rolls around, you won't see nearly as much Snyder, Del Carmen, Tavares, Pena, Cora, and Hinske as you've seen in the past two months while they've been resting on their huge cushion and hanging up their ~.500 numbers. Instead, it will be the relatively rested A-Team.

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I'm sure this is a stupid question that will only show my baseball ignorance, but why would they be more of a favorite in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than the first?

[Assani Fisher]

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Can anybody guess the next closest city? If Boston is like 200-1 is there anybody else under like 1000-1?

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Well football is the one sport where anything can happen. Obviously since baseball is so far into the season, we have to at least have a team in contention there. And in NBA theres basically a .00001% chance of a team like the Pacers winning the title next year.

So they'd have to have:

A baseball team in contention
A decent basketball team
A football team


That narrows it down to:

Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Arizona/Phoenix
Colorado/Denver
Los Angeles(who knows, maybe they'll get Jermaine O Neal and contend)



A few of those are stretches, and I don't think I'd jump out of my seat to bet on any of them even at 1000-1.

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I think to make it fair we would have to talk about next baseball season. Some sort of Tiger sweep I guess.

You could Add Houston and Dallas (+Rangers) I guess.


I think Chicago would be the clear 2 and I would take it at 1000-1 in a heartbeat if I got the sox and cubs for next year. With the cubs for this year it seems pretty good also. You don't think so? Actually the more I think about it the more I think Chicago isn't THAT far behind Boston.

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agree on Chicago. I also think Detroit is up there, although I'm probably a bit higher on the Lions than most. I'd put Arizona/Phoenix at 3rd or 4th.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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I see it as something like 53% to win in the first round, 55% in the ALCS, and 58% to win the World Series.


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I used to be a bookmaker offshore and in Las Vegas, and I would've been out of a job pretty quick if I thought this Red Sox team only had a 53% chance of beating a wild-card team in a single game, let alone a five-game series with home-ice advantage.

Not to whip out my e-penis or anything, but I'll lay all the -120 you want on the Sox in the first round, and all the -150 you want on any other rounds they play.

I'm quite confident that when October rolls around, you won't see nearly as much Snyder, Del Carmen, Tavares, Pena, Cora, and Hinske as you've seen in the past two months while they've been resting on their huge cushion and hanging up their ~.500 numbers. Instead, it will be the relatively rested A-Team.

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I'm sure this is a stupid question that will only show my baseball ignorance, but why would they be more of a favorite in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than the first?

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b/c the Wild Card is only a 5 game series, vs. 7 for the LCS and WS

[Jack of Arcades]

And the WS will typically be against a weaker opponent than the ALCS.

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On the Odds of the Red Sox winning the WC:

The likely matchup will be Red Sox vs Yankees. I'm not really sure how much of an advantage the Sox have but it's probably about 5 games max. What would you put the odds of the Sox winning a 5 game series at home vs the Yanks is?

[vhawk01]

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And the WS will typically be against a weaker opponent than the ALCS.

***

On the Odds of the Red Sox winning the WC:

The likely matchup will be Red Sox vs Yankees. I'm not really sure how much of an advantage the Sox have but it's probably about 5 games max. What would you put the odds of the Sox winning a 5 game series at home vs the Yanks is?

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I will bet you that that isnt the matchup. I'll give you 3-1.

[Jack of Arcades]

Oh, right, the rules preclude that, don't it?

Then the opponent will either be Cleveland, Detroit, or LA. I want the odds on those.

[vhawk01]

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Oh, right, the rules preclude that, don't it?

Then the opponent will either be Cleveland, Detroit, or LA. I want the odds on those.

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I think it depends on which of those it is, of course, but there is no way its better than 3:2 against any of them, IMO.

[youtalkfunny]

I was going to post that I'd make the Sox -160 to -180 against any of those three teams, but I lacked the confidence to do so without checking in with the experts.

A friend of mine is a high-ranking muckety-muck at a Las Vegas casino, and I asked him for numbers off the top of his head. His reply follows:

Red Sox -170 vs Tigers
Red Sox -160 vs Angels(not sure if angels won't get home ice)
Red Sox -190 vs Tribe







(In other words, Las Vegas thinks 53% is a little low.)

[kyro]

ytf, how much of that is influenced by retard Sox fans who think their team can do no wrong? I was under the impression oddsmakers set lines they thought would result in the largest profit, not what they actually thought the lines SHOULD be.

[oe39]

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Another Interesting one:

Los Angeles Dodgers 1981 World Series Champs
Oakland Raiders January 1981 Super Bowl Champs
Los Angeles Lakers 1981-82 NBA Champs

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as a bay area resident, oakland and LA are not associated with each other... at all. just bc they're CA does nto mean they feel those ar the home teams =P

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yeah, if they were on the east coast they'd be 4 states apart