200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed

[klownage]

Just curious, Bld, do you still play HSNL? Retired/hiatus? Diff. screen name?

[fslexcduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is 30k better than a shove (~40k looks like)?

[/ QUOTE ] it's better if he thinks it will get called at least 133% as often. i'm inclined to think this is true by far.



[/ QUOTE ] If aba had 100k behind on the river, what bet size is best

[/ QUOTE ] the one that maximizes (frequency of call)*(amount)

[ QUOTE ]
and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
because that maximizes, EV silly.

i know these answers were trivial, but they're the most straight-forward for your questions.

[NoahSD]

Thanks for responding, but I wanted more than that obviously. I'm really unfamiliar with the overbetting dynamic on the river because at my stakes nobody ever does it.

[drj003]

With a player that is as good as sbrugby, I don't think I could put more accuracy than 50% bluff, 50% not bluff.....so then just do the math-50% of the time you win this and 50% you lose that......if you can come up with more accurate %s then apply them. Well I guess that's all obvious....so I guess all I'm saying is it would be hard to narrow down better than 50/50 whether he is bluffing or seeming bluffing but really having the winning hand(to me). I'd probably fold. However I would have bet the flop and the turn.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
A few things:

1)the 1 c/r turn, overbet example aba gave, the flush came on the river, so it was a much better spot to overbet bluff. The non scary river card on this example lowers the chance he's bluffing.

2) Its also important to know Abas calling range. As AJeff noted, Aba is semi strict about not playing these suited connectors and weak suited aces OOP.

3) Aba is obviously capable of using this line as a bluff a lot, but the simple fact is he almost most likely never uses this line as a bluff and that has to be considered when putting him on hand ranges on the turn and river.
Its clear he ocassionaly overbets, but not nearly as much as Prahlad.

4)I really like the line Aba took.

a) by not reraising pf he didn't give the value away for his hand and allowed whitelime to stay in with an inferior kj that would have probably folded to a rr

b) he exponentialized the pot with the c/r the turn and made himself an extra ~ $35,000

Risky move but a good one for a variety of reasons but my post is long enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post has more logic and is more coherent than any other post on here. i agree with every single point, but 3) and 4a) are the most important in this scenario.
dlpnyc21

[bkholdem]

Results of the hand please.

[David1234]

[ QUOTE ]
Results of the hand please.

[/ QUOTE ]
Aba had AA

[jalexand42]

[ QUOTE ]
nice post blds

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thanks for posting.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]

Aba knows you have to fold 2/3 of the time to make a bluff here profitable. he also obviously knows you have a K. you're a thinking player who is capable of making a big call down here. i dont think he would ever think he could get you to fold more than 2/3 of the time here...

i'd lay it down



[/ QUOTE ]

Why can't this argument be levelled too? If whitelime knows that aba is unlikely to bluff because of the bad pot odds on the bluff, then that makes a bluff more likely to succeed.

FWIW (it's not worth anything), i thought this was a fold. best arguments for me were a) terrible pot odds on the call and b) aba likely to be taking advantage of whitelime's possible willingness to call overbets.