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#131
07-20-2007, 07:53 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
Should Khan just call with 33? Assuming: <ul type="square">[*]Kravchenko is pushing {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo}[*]Rahme will call with {TT+,AQs+,AKo} if Khan folds[*]Rahme will overcall with {66+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs} (7.67%) if Khan flat calls[*]There is no further action in the hand[/list] This gives three-way pot equities of... Kravchenko: 0.30710 Khan: 0.23979 Rahme: 0.45311 EV_call = 2488.124 From before, Khan folding was worth 2460.898. Khan pushing and never getting called by Rahme was worth 2468.665. call>push>fold EDIT: If Rahme overcalls Khan's push with {QQ+}, pushing is worth a little less: 2457.730, making it definitely call>>push/fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand your model yet. Why is Rahme never shoving? Looks silly to me to call with AA and check it down. 
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#132
07-20-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Should Khan just call with 33? Assuming: <ul type="square">[*]Kravchenko is pushing {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo}[*]Rahme will call with {TT+,AQs+,AKo} if Khan folds[*]Rahme will overcall with {66+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs} (7.67%) if Khan flat calls[*]There is no further action in the hand[/list] This gives three-way pot equities of... Kravchenko: 0.30710 Khan: 0.23979 Rahme: 0.45311 EV_call = 2488.124 From before, Khan folding was worth 2460.898. Khan pushing and never getting called by Rahme was worth 2468.665. call>push>fold EDIT: If Rahme overcalls Khan's push with {QQ+}, pushing is worth a little less: 2457.730, making it definitely call>>push/fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand your model yet. Why is Rahme never shoving? Looks silly to me to call with AA and check it down. [/ QUOTE ] It's not necessarily exactly "no further action." What it really is saying is that Khan never puts any more money in with a worse hand. It's ignoring a set-over-set situation where Khan goes bust to Rahme in the side pot and Kravchenko makes some wacky straight to win the main pot. There just aren't that many ways for Khan to get the rest of his stack in without a winner. He knows that when an old nit either pushes preflop over a raise and a call or bets postflop into a dry sidepot, he's got the nuts or close to it. Kravchenko gains almost no pot equity against the range Rahme pushes over Khan's call, likely {QQ+}. In other words, it's very hard for them to go Khan>Kravchenko>Rahme against the very top end of Rahme's range. It's like 1% of about 2% of the time Rahme has a monster.
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