my friend and i are arguing: $22 180 person 17 remaining players

[SitNGo Wizard]

Just to clarify, the Wizard does not prevent you from entering more than 13.5k chips, it just warns you when you do.

[LearnedfromTV]

thanks soulman...

as far as these two summary points:

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If I could sum up your thoughts, it's basically like this:
* Two different scenarios with the same cEV aren't necessarily alike. Knowing which ones are preferable and why is key.
* Far from the FT/real money, we actually prefer the higher variance line (which is basically what an UTG push is, since the FE is lower) due to the value of doubling up. Closer to the FT, we prefer the line where the +cEV comes mostly from FE, due to cEV - $EV considerations.

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I'm much more confident with #1 than #2 (#1 is conveniently much more general).

I think #2 isn't entirely accurate. We prefer the higher variance line whenever the payout structure flattens as long as we are deep enough in the tourneys that a) cEV and $EV aren't the same, b) there is a payout structure spike coming soon for which having a big stack would be extra valuable.

This is different from what you said because, for example, during the long early and midgame period, although the payout structure is flat, cEV and $EV are equivalent and we're too far from any bubble for building a stack specifically for the bubble to have any added value (think 9-7 left in a sit and go).

But when we get within range of the money bubble (say 50 left, pays 30), now I think the higher variance line becomes better in most cases (think 5-6 left in a sit and go)

On the money bubble, it ebbs back to wanting the lower variance line again, using a stack you built earlier to get folds or pushing a small stack in spots where you are less likely to be called (the money at the top makes doubling up always very good, but relatively you'd rather take your doubleup shot one inside the money than one outside; again we're always talking about comparing equivalent EV spots). This is where sit and go analogies break down because the ITM bubble is not similar to an STT bubble (the FT bubble is closer but still very different)

Then once in the money, during periods where the structure is flatter, you would be more inclined to gamble; when approaching a payout spike, you'd rather have a big stack already which you can use to get chips through getting folds. (this is where sit and go analogies really break down, because the ITM structure is so much more complicated and topheavy in MTTs, but the general concept is similar to playing for more 1st and 3rds and fewer 2nds in sit and goes)

Where this gets particularly tricky and where I am least comfortable asserting anything, is from about 12 left on, because even though you are approaching a payout spike from 10--->9, you also want to build a stack to work for the much greater payout spikes at the final table. And then once at the final table, every move up is a payout spike, but every risk puts you in better position for a much bigger payout spike. Stack sizes and opponent tendencies matter a lot here, and there is nothing as clear cut as knowing that you want to gamble with 17 left. I think the general rule is you would rather your distribution within the final 18 be weighted toward 1-3, 7-9, and 15-18, but in any individual final 12 situation, your approach will vary.

[registrar]

Bumping this because it's good.

[Cleverbeans]

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Bumping this because it's good.

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Thanks for the bump, haven't been around all that long so when I first read it the practical value was lost on me. It certainly set off some bells this time through.

[L0QTiS]

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I can see the need to push, however I've still found that once you hit the money mark, you tend to lose about 6 people quickly from those that are either trying to move up chip wise, or those who were just holding out for the money.

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And the next player out is going to be the Hero unless he doubles up or better soon. Seriously. If you want any chance to make the FT, you have to play a shortstack like this pretty fast.

I'm not sure if I push here, dependant on my blind player stats, but as described, this sounds like an easy push with any 2. I'd be fine with a steal, but I think I'd also be fine with a single caller holding something I can flip against, at least I'd have a chance to double up.

You've made it ITM, but have an uphill battle to the FT - you wont get there by playing it safe.

[Pudge714]

Raptor, LFTV and Adanthar,
Very nice work in this thread.