Adrian Peterson is not Overrated, statistical comparison CTaylor - AP

[Jack of Arcades]

Like Pudge said, in 2005, Peterson "only" averaged 5.0 ypc despite breaking off plenty of long runs. This would seem to indicate a few things:

1) Either Peterson has always been somewhat of a boom or bust back or he's been facing 9 guys in the box his whole career.
2) Peterson is probably running sick hot. 6.6 ypc is of course unsustainable. He should finish above 5 but I doubt it'll be above 6.
3) Peterson could settle into the 4.5-5.0 range but plenty of awesome backs like LT have bad averages. In fact, LT only has 3 years of 4.5ypc or greater.

[Pudge714]

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tdarko,
He is running good irt to big plays. His pace isn't sustainable, he isn't going to run for 2000 yards. His style of running means he regularly needs to get runs like that because he will gets a decent amount of 2 yard losses and 2 and 12 or 3 and 12 are bad places all offenses and terrible places for the Vikings offense. He averaged 5ypc at Oklahoma I doubt he is going to average more in the NFL.

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Your completely wrong. To say that it is "his style of running" that results in negative gains and not the defense penetrating thought the line because they can run blitz w/o worry of passing game is ridiculous.

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I don't remember exactly when this happened yesterday, but there was a run where he ran off tackle kept running sideways behind the line looking for a hole and there was an offensive holding penalty. A RB like Curtis Martin would have probably ran straight up the middle for a small loss or small gain, this isn't always better, but it showcases a different style. As Needle said putting 8 men in the box also increases your chance of getting a huge run because once you get past the LBs there are very few people who can tackle you.

[BillNye]

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Adrian Peterson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry on carries behind the left side of his OLine and 7.3 yards per carry on carries to the left sideline. This compares to 5.4 yards on carries behind the right side of his OLine, but only 4.1 yards per carry to the right sideline.




ADP is amazing, but thats a great side of the line, and hes clearly not doing as well on the other side. I don't say any of this to take away from ADP; Rather I say it to give credit to that line.

101,360 and counting

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Let's bring it up to date shall we?

Left side 7.8, right side 5.2, middle 6.0, left sideline 7.3, right sideline 6.3.

He is running slightly more often to the left than right.

By all means we can acknowledge that left side of the line is a run blocking machine.
But you also have to acknowledge that his average yards per carry to the right side/line - a side which is maybe average in quality for the NFL- would still lead the league in yards per carry.

I'm not sure why people are trying to take out his long runs to make some comparisons- or why people are still trying to argue hes a bust or boom back, or trying to make sure people realize the left side of his line is really really good.
If people look closely they will see all of these dropoffs for nearly every back in the league- which means what... teams have a side of their line that is generally better than the other- or that a back runs slightly better one direction than another.

Peterson gets as many yards after contact as anybody in the NFL right now. He has little control as any back would of where he initially gets hit when its a jailbreak into the backfield.

fwiw- I cannot for the life of me understand why Barber doesn't get more carries, but he has dropoffs in his splits also.

I think Thayer is going the right direction though.

Spergon Wynn is a better runner than Peterson.

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Even though I specifically said it in my post, I feel as if you ignored it. Let me repeat:


My post had nothing to do with ADP. I was not trying to take anything away from him. Rather I feel as if people are not giving enough credit to that great o-line. That o-line makes a completely average back like Taylor look like a pro bowl calibre RB and they make a great RB look even better. This dispite the fact that nobody respects their passing game. Its really amazing.

101,342 and counting

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Taylor's 6tds all last year, distances: 4, 95, 1, 1, 1, 1 and only 4.0ypc = pro bowl #'s these days?


The offensive line is strong on the left, weak on the right slightly better than average overall.

Because teams stack the box and there is no threat of a passing game he is in a less than ideal situation and would do better in a better offense (see E.James on colts vs E.James on ARI).

Because teams stack the box there are more tackles in the backfield (I really dont think by much, #'s plz) but once he gets to the 2nd level there is less to avoid which also results in more long runs.

Stacking the box is obv +EV for the defense otherwise 8/8 teams so far wouldn't have done it. AKA less than ideal situation.

He's dominant. In 25% of his games this year he has had over 220yds rushing not bad considering most RBs haven't ever done that, and no RB has ever had 296.

[vixticator]

I don't understand people talking about his style in relation to short runs, lol. It's not Barry Sanders. Peterson does no dancing. He just explodes full force through the hole, shot out of a huge [censored] cannon. I mean wtf. Please never say his style leads to negative runs. THXBYE.

Boom and more boom style.

[BillNye]

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I don't understand people talking about his style in relation to short runs, lol. It's not Barry Sanders. Peterson does no dancing. He just explodes full force through the hole, shot out of a huge [censored] cannon. I mean wtf. Please never say his style leads to negative runs. THXBYE.

Boom and more boom style.

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Exactly.

[BillNye]

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Like Pudge said, in 2005, Peterson "only" averaged 5.0 ypc despite breaking off plenty of long runs. This would seem to indicate a few things:

1) Either Peterson has always been somewhat of a boom or bust back or he's been facing 9 guys in the box his whole career.
2) Peterson is probably running sick hot. 6.6 ypc is of course unsustainable. He should finish above 5 but I doubt it'll be above 6.
3) Peterson could settle into the 4.5-5.0 range but plenty of awesome backs like LT have bad averages. In fact, LT only has 3 years of 4.5ypc or greater.

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FYI defenses have stacked the box on him from high school. It's not some sort of new thing now...

His college offensive coordinator even said. Because teams stack they have a better chance at a tackle for a loss but if he gets to the 2nd level he's going to take it all the way.

Which is exactly what me and a couple of other posters have been trying to say.

[ProfessorBen]

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Watching him in college left me with a large man crush on Reggie Bush.

I think Peterson is a MUCH better back for the pro game. However, he needs to run with more care for his body, or he's going to miss a fuckload of games.

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Injuries happen to all RBs. Avoiding the hits is obviously a useful skill but eventually injuries will happen to everybody. You can only hope its not too serious such as an ACL.

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Yes, everybody gets hurt. Some people get hurt a lot more than others because they insist on jumping around and throwing themselves into people without any regard for their own goodwill.

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Completely agree, coaches need to put incentives into his contract that involve going out of bounds.

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Marion Barber the Third would like to have a word with you, son...

[Jack of Arcades]

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Like Pudge said, in 2005, Peterson "only" averaged 5.0 ypc despite breaking off plenty of long runs. This would seem to indicate a few things:

1) Either Peterson has always been somewhat of a boom or bust back or he's been facing 9 guys in the box his whole career.
2) Peterson is probably running sick hot. 6.6 ypc is of course unsustainable. He should finish above 5 but I doubt it'll be above 6.
3) Peterson could settle into the 4.5-5.0 range but plenty of awesome backs like LT have bad averages. In fact, LT only has 3 years of 4.5ypc or greater.

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FYI defenses have stacked the box on him from high school. It's not some sort of new thing now...

His college offensive coordinator even said. Because teams stack they have a better chance at a tackle for a loss but if he gets to the 2nd level he's going to take it all the way.

Which is exactly what me and a couple of other posters have been trying to say.

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But why is he so much more successful in the NFL than he was in college? And if stacking the box means he breaks off 50 yard runs with regularity, isn't that a bad idea to say the least?

[gusmahler]

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But why is he so much more successful in the NFL than he was in college?

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Sample size? He's only had 158 carries. Way too early to say he's more successful now than at Oklahoma.

[BillNye]

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Like Pudge said, in 2005, Peterson "only" averaged 5.0 ypc despite breaking off plenty of long runs. This would seem to indicate a few things:

1) Either Peterson has always been somewhat of a boom or bust back or he's been facing 9 guys in the box his whole career.
2) Peterson is probably running sick hot. 6.6 ypc is of course unsustainable. He should finish above 5 but I doubt it'll be above 6.
3) Peterson could settle into the 4.5-5.0 range but plenty of awesome backs like LT have bad averages. In fact, LT only has 3 years of 4.5ypc or greater.

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FYI defenses have stacked the box on him from high school. It's not some sort of new thing now...

His college offensive coordinator even said. Because teams stack they have a better chance at a tackle for a loss but if he gets to the 2nd level he's going to take it all the way.

Which is exactly what me and a couple of other posters have been trying to say.

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But why is he so much more successful in the NFL than he was in college? And if stacking the box means he breaks off 50 yard runs with regularity, isn't that a bad idea to say the least?

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8 games =/= 3 years