Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

[BINGOBANGOFTP]

Could you explain why chip conservation at this point isn't at least a concern?

Likely possibilities:

A. We draw to the gutshot. Don't hit. We could end up paying 240 chips if we see the river and pay two pot sized bets on the flop and turn. Our stack is now 775.
B. We draw to the gutshot and hit. If we see two pot sized bets on the flop and turn, the pot is 60+120=180, 180+360=540. We have 775 chips. Are we going to want to commit our entire stack with the straight vs a possible flush and possible full house? Furthermore, who is paying us that we beat?

[daveT]

Dromar, I am confused right now. Did we raise PF or not? If we did, then yes, we should c-bet here and give it up to resistance. I also agree that our opponent is showing himself as a tight passive. We should turn on the heat full blast. Screw what's in our hand.

Bingo: If you are afraid to loose chips in HU poker, you will never be successful. This isn't about how we want to make a hand, it is about how we need to force our opponent into making decisions.

[Vinetou]

[ QUOTE ]
Dromar, I am confused right now. Did we raise PF or not? If we did, then yes, we should c-bet here and give it up to resistance. I also agree that our opponent is showing himself as a tight passive. We should turn on the heat full blast. Screw what's in our hand.

Bingo: If you are afraid to loose chips in HU poker, you will never be successful. This isn't about how we want to make a hand, it is about how we need to force our opponent into making decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't raise preflop. It is a limped pot.

[jay_shark]

A flop bet should show positive expectation here . If you bet two-thirds of the pot , you only need to be successful 40% of the time to show a profit . If you get raised a sufficient amount , you can fold . If you get called , you still have some outs .

[BINGOBANGOFTP]

I understand we'd like to manipulate the villain here, but I just don't see how holding two under cards with little chance of being the best at showdown is really the best place for us to be making moves.

[daveT]

Bingo: Every flop is missed 60% of the time, but this is not the thread for this discussion.

JayShark, are you calling for a min-bet here, then?

Vinetou, I assume you still stand by your c/f line? It seems like this opponent will lets us run him over if we take the initiative. Although I agree this is not the best flop for a bet, it may be good for meta.

Without us PF raising, then I understand the c/f line a little better. But I do think this would be a good spot for a pfr.

[HokieGreg]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand we'd like to manipulate the villain here, but I just don't see how holding two under cards with little chance of being the best at showdown is really the best place for us to be making moves.

[/ QUOTE ]

because villain folds enough on the flop for us to turn a profit


i agree with vinetou that this isn't the most ideal paired flop to be leading out on against a passive player

[TNixon]

If we raised preflop like I wanted to, betting this flop (and lots of other flops) would be an absolute given.

Since we didn't, I'm torn. I voted check/fold, but the pot is small enough that trying to take it down won't cost very much, so I think it's very close.

[HokieGreg]

raise preflop??? how often do you raise these kinds of hands oop preflop?

[Dromar]

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop??? how often do you raise these kinds of hands oop preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, never. But Villain has shown a definite willingness to fold to our bets so far, and we don't have a very maniacal image or anything. I think our preflop raising range should be getting pretty wide against this guy, maybe even 100% from the button. As for BB play, raising preflop and c-betting with suited connectors and other good hands could show an immediate profit against this villain, at least until we have reason to believe he's changed his play to something other than tight/passive.

@bingo: While stack sizes are important to consider, that consideration is limited to effective stack sizes. Which player has more chips is irrelevant. As far as "chip conservation" is concerned, I don't even know what that means. It sounds like an important aspect of dying slowly, but that's not what we want. We need to be focusing on "chip accumulation." That's what our goal is. Maybe we're talking about the same thing.
My guess is you mean we shouldn't be leaking chips here, and that's true. The current discussion is focused on deciding whether betting would show an average profit (+EV), or if it won't work enough and we would be, in fact, leaking chips.