Betting blind against the Yankees

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
(lol at the davis line)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that this line is in any way absurd.

If you were to just look at the records of both teams, I can see how you could think the line is way off. If you look a little deeper though, it makes more sense.

The Yankees have outscored their opposition 353-294, while the DBacks have a slim margin of 272-267.

On paper, the Yankees are a far better team.

Home teams win about 54% of the time in MLB.

The AL has won 56% of interleague games thus far in 2007, and won a truly stunning 61% of games last year. The AL is pretty clearly the superior league, and it's not close.

Doug Davis' 3.48 ERA is deceiving, as he has a 1.64 WHIP. He has allowed 87 hits in 78 innings, and also walked 40 batters. Last year he had 102 BB in 203 innings, so that terrible walk rate is real. He's a bad pitcher, and would certainly be expected to post an ERA above 5.00 if he pitched in the AL for a full season. Davis might have some value as a fantasy baseball player (due to his IPs and Ks), but he's actually a pretty bad pitcher.

Pettite might not be the superstar that the media sometimes makes him out to be, but he would be a potential Cy Young candidate if he were still in the NL.

This is a definite mismatch, and the line has been set accordingly. I understand that the Yankees are overrated by the average fan, but I think this whole idea that you can profit just by fading the Yankees every game is probably not valid.

This year it has looked great because the Yankees are one game over .500 despite outscoring their opponents by 60 runs. Their 4-10 record in one run games has definitely helped.

This is a powerhouse team, and they are clearly head and shoulders better than the Dbacks. The pitching matchup is also highly in the NYY favor. The Yankees are the home team, and AL teams can be expected to win 55%+ of interleague games.

I don't see value in getting the DBacks at +210.

Out of curiosity, where would you set this line?

Which part of what I said would you disagree with? If I had to guess, many people would probably think I overstate the dominance of the AL, but this is where I am coming from.

[rsigley]

i think crock means with their winning streak the lines will be back up to inflated like they were in the beginning in the season

recently they got more reasonable, but now the image that yanks are unbeatable is back and lot of money will come in on them again, so wasn't that the point of this thread?

[New001]

I'm not on the Arizona ML yet, but I did just grab the RL at +105. I imagine it was better overnight, too.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not on the Arizona ML yet, but I did just grab the RL at +105. I imagine it was better overnight, too.

[/ QUOTE ]I am on the arizona RL at +110. However, the yankees are killing me the last couple of days even with good lines against them.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
i think crock means with their winning streak the lines will be back up to inflated like they were in the beginning in the season


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I buy that logic, because the Yankees are only 32-31. Their RS/RA pythagoreon record is 37-26, and they are 4-10 in one run games. These factors would tend to lead them be underrated.

[ QUOTE ]

recently they got more reasonable, but now the image that yanks are unbeatable is back and lot of money will come in on them again, so wasn't that the point of this thread?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the point of this thread is that a lot of money always comes in on the Yankees, resulting in unreasonable lines. I don't agree with this point.

But the main thrust of my post was about this particular game, where someone said that today's line was "lol" funny. I am wondering what they think a reasonable line would be here, becuase it looks about right to me. It looks like a severe mismatch.

A mediocre (34-32 pythagorean record) NL team is visiting a powerhouse AL East team, and they are sending a bad pitcher to the hill against a much better pitcher.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not on the Arizona ML yet, but I did just grab the RL at +105. I imagine it was better overnight, too.

[/ QUOTE ]I am on the arizona RL at +110. However, the yankees are killing me the last couple of days even with good lines against them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Likewise.

I won't say what I thought the line should be, but +225 is absurd. Honestly.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
if you ever wanted to resume this strategy, now is the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got lazy and abandoned keeping track of it. Judging by the Yanks' win/loss record, I'm guessing it was profitable up to this point, even including their current win streak.

[irisheyes]

Covers, on their MLB standings page gives a running count of money line bets YTD. NYY stands at -1246, so fading them would be quite profitable--surpassed only by TEX (c.f. Crockpot [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ), CHC, HOU, and CIN (c.f. NL central suckfest).

The system I was tracking was v. BOS which (had I stuck with it) would have been a disaster, as they are currently +1030.

Once I came to the realization that fading anyone blindly was pure donkistry, I also moved on. Thanks to Crockpot, TomG, and all the 2+2'ers for showing me the light.

[crockpot]

i had to look up what c.f. meant.

bitch. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]