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#121
05-09-2007, 08:57 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
i know what your saying. use what the bookies take as % probabilty as a marker and then add the edge on. This is added on to % probabilty right? so like 1 unit=+5% on bookie probabilty, 2 units=+6% and so on. I am english and so have to transfer american odds to decimal. Am i right in thinking +125 =2.25 and -125=1.8 ? so assuming as i said before a team is priced at +125 at 1 unit then this has a 44.4% chance of happening according to the bookie but once we add on our 5% edge this then amounts to 49.4% probabiltity and using kelly(assuming a $1000 bank) the total stake would be $89
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#122
05-09-2007, 09:46 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
where's ImBen when you need him?
[ QUOTE ] i know what your saying. use what the bookies take as % probabilty as a marker and then add the edge on. This is added on to % probabilty right? [/ QUOTE ] not even going to try on this... [ QUOTE ] so like 1 unit=+5% on bookie probabilty, 2 units=+6% and so on. [/ QUOTE ] crockpot said before he believes 1u = 5-10%, 2u = 10-15%, etc... [ QUOTE ] I am english and so have to transfer american odds to decimal. Am i right in thinking +125 =2.25 and -125=1.8 ? [/ QUOTE ] yes this is correct. [ QUOTE ] so assuming as i said before a team is priced at +125 at 1 unit then this has a 44.4% chance of happening according to the bookie [/ QUOTE ] 44.4% is what you need to breakeven on +125, the bookie likely believes the actual chance is less. [ QUOTE ] but once we add on our 5% edge this then amounts to 49.4% probabiltity [/ QUOTE ] this isn't how edges work. try solving X%*125-(1-X%)*100=5 [ QUOTE ] and using kelly(assuming a $1000 bank) the total stake would be $89 [/ QUOTE ] assuming 49.4%, yes this is the correct wager size, but 49.4% is too high.
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#123
05-09-2007, 10:11 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
the edge formula looks kinda confusing [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] is there like a general basis that you minus say 5% off the bookies % probabilty(there profit) and then add your edge % on? obviously crock thinks that these prices are profitable. Im kinda confused on how to transfer this(unit system) to kelly.
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#124
05-09-2007, 01:41 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
I'm English and prefer American odds to Decimal (although I still prefer traditional over everything else of course)
The opposite of +310 being -310 is much easier to calculate/remember in your head than 4.1/1.32
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#125
05-09-2007, 01:45 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
[ QUOTE ]
the edge formula looks kinda confusing [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] is there like a general basis that you minus say 5% off the bookies % probabilty(there profit) and then add your edge % on? obviously crock thinks that these prices are profitable. Im kinda confused on how to transfer this(unit system) to kelly. [/ QUOTE ] You're wasting way too much brain power on this. If crock likes the bet a lot and you can get his price, bet 2% of your roll. If he likes it and you can get his price, bet 1% of your roll. If you get better price than him, bet a bit more, if you get worse price than him, take some off. If the upswings and downswings feel big to you, use the same system but halve your bet size for all bets. If you can't get anything like the price he posted, don't bet. Lori
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#126
05-09-2007, 05:09 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
yer your right lori [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but a 5 unit bet is like 5% isnt it? is that ok for 1 bet long term(assuming i dont mind the swings)
?
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#127
05-09-2007, 05:18 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 5/1-5/6 (YTD 71-65, +65.69 units)
[ QUOTE ]
yer your right lori [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but a 5 unit bet is like 5% isnt it? [/ QUOTE ] No.
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