***** Clash of the Titans, Week 9: NE @ Ind*****

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Thanks for contributing! Why not share your vast knowledge?

I misworded a couple things and fan bases should probably be left out, but I don't think you can deny that the media hype machine has an affect on lines.

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the betting line (more specifically the closing line) is the best WIDELY AVAILABLE indicator of current team strength (accounting for location and injuries obv). PERIOD.

is it perfect? obviously not. is it better than anything else available within a google search? yes and its not close.

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I'll concede that the closing line is a very good indicator. But you're using an opening line in your assessment, not a closing line. Big difference

[sublime]

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Thanks for contributing! Why not share your vast knowledge?

I misworded a couple things and fan bases should probably be left out, but I don't think you can deny that the media hype machine has an affect on lines.

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of course it has an effect on lines....not enough that you can 'lol' at my first post.

tell you what. for the next 16 betting weeks, ill take the closing line as my predictor of margin of victory. i havce zero choice, i MUST use that closing line.


you on the other hand can predict the margin of victory using any number you want.

every game on the card must be picked.

winner is person who comes closest to real scores over that sample.

im willing to bet any amount of money you can afford. money is to be held in escrow..

how much you down for?

[daryn]

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the betting line (more specifically the closing line) is the best WIDELY AVAILABLE indicator of current team strength (accounting for location and injuries obv). PERIOD.

is it perfect? obviously not. is it better than anything else available within a google search? yes and its not close.

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I'll concede that the closing line is a very good indicator. But you're using an opening line in your assessment, not a closing line. Big difference

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what the heck? you have this backwards. if anything the closing line is less of an indicator! the closing line just tells you who's betting on what.

[sublime]

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the betting line (more specifically the closing line) is the best WIDELY AVAILABLE indicator of current team strength (accounting for location and injuries obv). PERIOD.

is it perfect? obviously not. is it better than anything else available within a google search? yes and its not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll concede that the closing line is a very good indicator. But you're using an opening line in your assessment, not a closing line. Big difference

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what the heck? you have this backwards. if anything the closing line is less of an indicator! the closing line just tells you who's betting on what.

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closing line is better indicator.

as Sunday comes you have more injury info and more money in the marketplace.

[blackize]

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what the heck? you have this backwards. if anything the closing line is less of an indicator! the closing line just tells you who's betting on what.

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Then wouldn't it make more sense to open with lines based on where the money is expected to go?

Edit: Obviously the line has an affect on where the money goes. I just mean that if the books expect Pats heavy action, which I think they should, they should be increasing the spread over the "true" line.

[sublime]

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the betting line (more specifically the closing line) is the best WIDELY AVAILABLE indicator of current team strength (accounting for location and injuries obv). PERIOD.

is it perfect? obviously not. is it better than anything else available within a google search? yes and its not close.

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I'll concede that the closing line is a very good indicator. But you're using an opening line in your assessment, not a closing line. Big difference

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also FTR there isnt a BIG difference. a difference? yeah. but not some huge amount. even the OPENING number is a better indicator than anything else available at that time...which of course leads back to my first post about NE being ~7 points better on a neutral field.

[PokerFink]

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the betting line (more specifically the closing line) is the best WIDELY AVAILABLE indicator of current team strength (accounting for location and injuries obv). PERIOD.

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What? Unless you consider things like Sagarin, DVOA, etc. to not be "widely avaliable", then this is wrong.

a) If the betting lines were the best predictor of results, then it would be impossible to beat the vig.

b) But it isn't impossible to beat the vig. Lots of smart bettors make plenty of money betting football.

c) Therefore, they must have a system/knowledge that is a bettor predictor than the lines.

d) Therefore, the betting line is NOT the best predictor of results.

[blackize]

All this arguing about lines has distracted us from the real reason I came into this thread. Debunking the "solid" Redskins defense.

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The Patriots performance against the Skins doesn't really say much IMO. The Skins offense is not good and facing a strong NE defense they were playing D all game.

The Skins D is being severely overrated. They hadn't played even a good offense yet this season.

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Before the Pats, the Redskins faced the Fins, a struggling Eagles offense, a struggling NYG offense, the Lions, the 1 dimensional Packers, and the Cardinals.

[sublime]

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Unless you consider things like Sagarin, DVOA, etc. to not be "widely avaliable", then this is wrong.

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no, they are widely available. i am still right. show me how DVOA gets translated into a point spread? a simple number predicting the score of future games (which is what we are talking about). if thats widely available (it isnt) then perhaps you are on to something.

Sagarin? lol. same offer as above. you can use sagarin and ill use the spread. let me know how much you would like to wager.

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a) If the betting lines were the best predictor of results, then it would be impossible to beat the vig.

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best WIDELY AVAILABLE. sharp handicappers have better numbers and do beat the spread. even then, they are almost always using numbers that are better than whats widely available (example, a sharp bettor will get +3 +105 when the market is really +3 -105 etc)

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b) But it isn't impossible to beat the vig. Lots of smart bettors make plenty of money betting football.

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lots? um, no. like 1% of the betting population? ok, yeah. they don't beat it by much either, and any of them with long term success will agree with me that the spread is a very strong indicator of relative strengths.

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c) Therefore, they must have a system/knowledge that is a bettor predictor than the lines.

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um, ok. this disputes what i said how? how is a winning NFL handicapper a WIDELY AVAILABLE source?

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d) Therefore, the betting line is NOT the best predictor of results.

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again, what i said:

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the betting line (more specifically the closing line) is the best WIDELY AVAILABLE indicator of current team strength (accounting for location and injuries obv). PERIOD.

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so please pick a WIDELY AVAILABLE (how is that i capitalized this for a specific reason, yet it didn't matter people still brought up winning NFL handicappers) source (ANY widely available source) and i will take the betting line. over a one season sample of every game, i am willing to wager $25,000 that the betting line is a better predictor of final score. this offer is very real. you can pick whatever day you want to (opening line, mondays, sunday morning) and use whatever WIDELY AVAILABLE source you like.

again, i am 100% serious.