NCAA College Football Week 11 -- Rank'em

[Gregatron]

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LSU over VT, that's about it.

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L #21 Auburn vs #11 South Florida 23-26
L #83 Mississippi vs #13 Missouri 25-38
W #2 LSU vs #17 Virginia Tech 48-7
W #20 Kentucky vs #33 Louisville 40-34

There's a whole host of out of conference home games versus Sagarin predictor 40-100 teams, and I think the SEC might have won all of them. So it's not useful information for bashing the SEC.

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SEC generally doesn't travel for tough games. Especially the top teams. Away games carry more weight than home games. SEC seemingly avoids them like the plague.

b

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Speaking for LSU, we have played AZ State on the road and the VTech game was a home and home.

But we should play more TOUGH ooc games -- you are right. If for no other reason than to help recruiting. As an LSU fan I would love to play a Texas school (Big12 South team) on the road for that reason. Or Florida State. And we LOVE kicking the "U"'s ass in Baton Rouge!

[iggymcfly]

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Not sure why you are comparing last years stats to this years and acting like its even close to the same team. Your analysis is almost always full of such terrible logic, its no wonder why you thought GATECH was top 5.


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OMG. You've been making this same stupid Ad Hominem attack all year. Like having Georgia Tech #5 when they were 2-0 with a ton of starters back and a blowout win over a Notre Dame team people thought was going to be decent was just absolutely ridiculous. STFU about it already. It's getting almost to the point of trolling.

Back on turnover margin, yes, there are some differences between the teams this year and last year, but you'd still expect to see at least a reasonably strong correlation were it a skill-based stat.

By comparison, let's look at total offense. The average total offense last year was 344.5 YPG so we'll use that as a mid-point to once again get a +/- stat and then put last year's ranking in parenthesis.

<u>Yards over average last year of this year's Top 10 in total offense</u>
1. Texas Tech: +103.3 (6)
2. Tulsa: +44.0 (24)
3. Hawaii: +214.7 (1)
4. Missouri: +81.1 (8)
5. Oregon: +78.4 (9)
6. Houston: +101.6 (7)
7. Louisville: +130.8 (2)
8. Oklahoma: +24.2 (40)
9. Nevada: +13.0 (46)
10. Kansas: +28.6 (33)

Hmm, interesting. When we look at a skill-based stat, we find that every team who is in the Top 10 this year was at least better than average on offense last year whereas that only applied to 8 out of 14 teams in turnover margin. Also, 6 of the Top 10 remained the same while in turnover margin not one of this year's Top 10 was in the Top 10 last year. If I didn't know better, I'd say that turnovers were very largely based on luck whereas measures like gaining yardage were much more repeatable.

[TomCollins]

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Not sure why you are comparing last years stats to this years and acting like its even close to the same team. Your analysis is almost always full of such terrible logic, its no wonder why you thought GATECH was top 5.


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OMG. You've been making this same stupid Ad Hominem attack all year. Like having Georgia Tech #5 when they were 2-0 with a ton of starters back and a blowout win over a Notre Dame team people thought was going to be decent was just absolutely ridiculous. STFU about it already. It's getting almost to the point of trolling.

Back on turnover margin, yes, there are some differences between the teams this year and last year, but you'd still expect to see at least a reasonably strong correlation were it a skill-based stat.

By comparison, let's look at total offense. The average total offense last year was 344.5 YPG so we'll use that as a mid-point to once again get a +/- stat and then put last year's ranking in parenthesis.

<u>Yards over average last year of this year's Top 10 in total offense</u>
1. Texas Tech: +103.3 (6)
2. Tulsa: +44.0 (24)
3. Hawaii: +214.7 (1)
4. Missouri: +81.1 (8)
5. Oregon: +78.4 (9)
6. Houston: +101.6 (7)
7. Louisville: +130.8 (2)
8. Oklahoma: +24.2 (40)
9. Nevada: +13.0 (46)
10. Kansas: +28.6 (33)

Hmm, interesting. When we look at a skill-based stat, we find that every team who was in the Top 10 this year was at least better than average on offense last year whereas that only applied to 8 out of 14 teams in turnover margin. Also, 6 of the Top 10 remained the same while in turnover margin not one of this year's Top 10 was in the Top 10 last year. If I didn't know better, I'd say that turnovers were very largely based on luck whereas measures like gaining yardage were much more repeatable.

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See, you are making progress. But most of these stats have to do with coaching philosophies rather than skill.

Take Texas Tech, Hawaii. They like the gimmick "all offense, no defense" strategy. Same coach = same system = similar stats. Louisville got a new coach but he still plays the same system and what a shock, you have the same stats.

95% luck is complete bs and was an exaggeration on your end. I am not denying that luck is a major factor (especially in the course of a single game), but far less than you say.

[bernie]

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Bernie,

I know you are a westcoast bro and I basically take the stance that SEC and Pac-10 are the class of the country every year and you can't go wrong with either but Sagarin actually has them #3 this year and has the Big East ahead of them.

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That still doesn't mean it's not a tough conference to play in. SEC still doesn't travel.

On a side note, it is interesting to see the Big East rise when it was expected to happen from the ACC.

b

[MyTurn2Raise]

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What has earned the SEC this mythical status? Their out of conference road games versus Sagarin predictor top 100 teams:

L #62 Mississippi State at #7 West Virginia 13-38
L #29 Tennessee at #26 California 31-45
L #34 Alabama at #44 Florida State 14-21
W #42 South Carolina at #69 North Carolina 21-15

That's it. They haven't played anyone else on the road in the top 100, so they're 1-3 on the year, with their best road win being South Carolina over North Carolina by 6 points.

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Alabama-Florida St was a nuetral site
Jacksonville
probably a FSU lean to the crowd, but not the same as Doak-Campbell

[pvn]

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For those ranking Kansas #3 behind LSU and Oregon, do you think that if all three win out that an undefeated BCS conference champion should be left out of the BCS championship behind TWO one-loss teams?

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no but until they beat Mizzouri and Oklahoma they don't belong above LSU/Oregon

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So if the season ended today you'd leave them out?

[pirateboy]

Absolutely

[BigSoonerFan]

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For those ranking Kansas #3 behind LSU and Oregon, do you think that if all three win out that an undefeated BCS conference champion should be left out of the BCS championship behind TWO one-loss teams?

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no but until they beat Mizzouri and Oklahoma they don't belong above LSU/Oregon

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So if the season ended today you'd leave them out?

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Yes, without a second thought. For the same reason that Brigham Young didn't deserve to be NC in 1984.

[pvn]

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For those ranking Kansas #3 behind LSU and Oregon, do you think that if all three win out that an undefeated BCS conference champion should be left out of the BCS championship behind TWO one-loss teams?

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no but until they beat Mizzouri and Oklahoma they don't belong above LSU/Oregon

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So if the season ended today you'd leave them out?

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Yes, without a second thought. For the same reason that Brigham Young didn't deserve to be NC in 1984.

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LOL. This is great. I really hope it happens, it would be the greatest argument for ending the bowl cartel ever.

[rwperu34]

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Speaking for LSU, we have played AZ State on the road and the VTech game was a home and home.


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That ASU game was a scheduled home game for LSU [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]