The Ljubljana Conspiracy.

[newhizzle]

ive noticed something playing against DERB that sort of contradicts the belief that he is a winner because of meta-effects, from what ive seen, DERB likes to slowplay when he flops a monster like a flush or a set, he will bet/call or check/call the flop and wait till the turn to get aggressive, i havent played many hands with him, so i dont know how often he does it, but almost every time hes flopped a monster against me, he waits till the turn, i dont see how meta-effects can really help him that much if he dosent jam the flop with his good hands right?

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi newhizzle:

You may be right in the sense that this may not be the way to maximize his profit on these hands, but he should still make a pretty good profit on them. Also, they don't occur very often. So you're looking at a difference that may not be that great that only happens on occasion. So, assuming that you are correct, this should not impact Derb's long run results very much.

Best wishes,
Mason

[newhizzle]

hi mason,

the reason i pointed this out is because i think a lot of people believe that the way that DERB makes up lost bets where he jams the flop with bad hands is by playing good hands the same way and getting played back at by people who think he is either FOS or on some kind of draw, but if he dosent get full value on these hands, then where does he make up these lost bets and where do his extra profits come from, just fold equity?

[stigmata]

In a related note, the av. pot size DERB wins is totally normal, so the idea that he is generating excess action appears to be a total fallacy.

My general thoughts on the strategic side of DERB:

PREFLOP: The effect of rake is really quite small at 30/60 up. The punishment for playing loosely is probably less than many people probably think. Also, domination is much more likely when playing multiway pots than when HU, so is probably less of a problem at high-stakes online poker than elsewhere. Thus again, DERB is perhaps not being punished as badly for poor hand selection as we may think.

POSTFLOP: He seems to play well from a game-theoretic viewpoint when HU after the flop. In fact, postflop his play is somewhat remeniscint of the sparbot produced the Poki team. E.g. A good level of aggression, which is well balanced between the flop/turn and different strength hands and semi-bluffs, some very liberal calldowns with K-high etc, but sometimes poor hand reading skills. Furthermore, his postflop play seems to be somewhat designed to exploit the most common ABC play: Raise preflop first-in with position, bet the flop, bet the turn, fold if unimproved. His exploitation of this play explains the loose cold-calls and loose blind defence.

As stated before, this is all just an educated guess from a very limited number of hands. I may or may not investigate my these hypothesese further. I also agree with others that he is probably an OK player who has ran very good, but this does not mean that nothing can be learnt from him.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
In a related note, the av. pot size DERB wins is totally normal, so the idea that he is generating excess action appears to be a total fallacy.


[/ QUOTE ]

It is a fallacy to think that simply because his average pot size is normal, that he isn´t generating excess access. I don´t know that he is in fact generating action, but he could easily have a normal average pot size. This could happen if some of his pots are huge from excess action, and many of his pots are extra small, from his excess folding equity.

[SamG]

[ QUOTE ]
In a related note, the av. pot size DERB wins is totally normal, so the idea that he is generating excess action appears to be a total fallacy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but doesn't it matter that he is coming in with much weaker hands on average? You would expect his average pot size to be smaller since weaker hands are harder to value bet.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi newhizzle:

He would tend to get extra value on his more common winning hands. Top pair would be a good example.

Let me give an example. I remember a hand played in a $40-$80 hold 'em game at The Mirage from a couple of years ago. A nutty girl bet on the river and there was an ace-king on board. She got three callers and the third caller had an ace-nine. How this person could make this call is beyond me, but I suspect that if someone else had made the initial bet, he would have folded.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi newhizzle:

He would tend to get extra value on his more common winning hands. Top pair would be a good example.

Let me give an example. I remember a hand played in a $40-$80 hold 'em game at The Mirage from a couple of years ago. A nutty girl bet on the river and there was an ace-king on board. She got three callers and the third caller had an ace-nine. How this person could make this call is beyond me, but I suspect that if someone else had made the initial bet, he would have folded.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing times have changed some- because is A9 calling here really that shocking in a 40 game these days?

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi newhizzle:

You may be right in the sense that this may not be the way to maximize his profit on these hands, but he should still make a pretty good profit on them. Also, they don't occur very often. So you're looking at a difference that may not be that great that only happens on occasion. So, assuming that you are correct, this should not impact Derb's long run results very much.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Mason Malmuth:

Please give DERB the respect he deserves and not pronounce his name Derb.

Best Wishes,
Sublime

[samr]

Check the date.

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.gambl...76dd8c77b1f9f23