** Official September Chat Thread: The Grey Swan **

[mlane]

Thats what she said.

[Ryanj37]

[ QUOTE ]
I've just recently reached 30,000 (30,070 to be exact)flops seen with pocketpairs.

From my understanding, you are supposed to hit 12%, right?
That means I should've hit 3608.

Unfortunatley, I've only hit 3453 of them, for a lowly 8.7%.

155 less sets than I should average.

Now, I average a profit of $41.61 when I hit a set -- so thats $6449.55 I don't have.

Depressing.

ANyways, this is over about 750,000 hands -- which seems like a fairly long run. But I guess 30,000 flops isn't that big of a sample.

This post is sort of a rant that I run bad(everyone loves those), but more importantly to show how long it takes for these things to balance. Damn, the long run is long.

[/ QUOTE ]

3453 is 11.5% of 30000 which is about right I think. The long run is very long and as the old saying goes : "swongs are one thing"

[mlane]

Ok, can someone link me to that lil'holdem interview.

[the_main]

oops. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I retract what I said and instead use my post to assert that 750k hands is officially the longrun.

[the_main]

Anyone know the exact percentage you should flop a set?

[diebitter]

it's 1-(48*47*46/50*49*48)

Multiply this by 30K, you get 3526

[LearningCurve]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone know the exact percentage you should flop a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

11.8%

[LearningCurve]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone know the exact percentage you should flop a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

11.8%

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I have something else which says 10.8% so I dunno I guess. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[the_main]

[ QUOTE ]
it's 1-(48*47*46/50*49*48)

Multiply this by 30K, you get 3526

[/ QUOTE ]

Math is not my strong suit, and this looks confusing enough to be believeable.

So whatever, I'm ~$3,000 short of expectation.

[mlane]

hrmm so pummuckel is bad. I 6 tabled 200nl for a while and man that guy is one goofy bastard over the short time i was there.