Adrian Peterson is not Overrated, statistical comparison CTaylor - AP - Page 12

TheNoodleMan · #**111** 11-05-2007, 04:16 PM

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Assani,
What are you counting?

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TheNoodleMan · #**112** 11-05-2007, 04:16 PM

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I do not want to hijack and threads here for questions about the countdown. There is an "Assani Fisher countdown speculation" thread in About the Forums forum....I'm much more likely to answer questions there than here because, as I said, I don't want to take away from this thread.

101,355.65 and counting

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the decimal place is new, is that a typo?

hoyasnaxa · #**113** 11-05-2007, 04:20 PM

another thread derailed, great work assani.

Pudge714 · #**114** 11-05-2007, 04:21 PM

capone,
Nice strawman.

SL,
+1 for Mewelde being awesome.

rhythm,
Based on the fact the Vikings won I would argue you CAN win a football game with a qb completing 9 passes.

hoyasnaxa · #**115** 11-05-2007, 04:24 PM

Vikings should just play without a QB. Direct snap to Peterson and put another TE in to block.

apefish · #**116** 11-05-2007, 05:19 PM

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Adrian Peterson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry on carries behind the left side of his OLine and 7.3 yards per carry on carries to the left sideline. This compares to 5.4 yards on carries behind the right side of his OLine, but only 4.1 yards per carry to the right sideline.

ADP is amazing, but thats a great side of the line, and hes clearly not doing as well on the other side. I don't say any of this to take away from ADP; Rather I say it to give credit to that line.

101,360 and counting

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Let's bring it up to date shall we?

Left side 7.8, right side 5.2, middle 6.0, left sideline 7.3, right sideline 6.3.

He is running slightly more often to the left than right.

By all means we can acknowledge that left side of the line is a run blocking machine.
But you also have to acknowledge that his average yards per carry to the right side/line - a side which is maybe average in quality for the NFL- would still lead the league in yards per carry.

I'm not sure why people are trying to take out his long runs to make some comparisons- or why people are still trying to argue hes a bust or boom back, or trying to make sure people realize the left side of his line is really really good.
If people look closely they will see all of these dropoffs for nearly every back in the league- which means what... teams have a side of their line that is generally better than the other- or that a back runs slightly better one direction than another.

Peterson gets as many yards after contact as anybody in the NFL right now. He has little control as any back would of where he initially gets hit when its a jailbreak into the backfield.

fwiw- I cannot for the life of me understand why Barber doesn't get more carries, but he has dropoffs in his splits also.

I think Thayer is going the right direction though.

Spergon Wynn is a better runner than Peterson.

Needle77 · #**117** 11-05-2007, 05:50 PM

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Reason/argument: putting ADP on that team would give you the 6.6 ypc on the shorter runs and he would also break the long runs. The reason he has negative yard runs is because defenses load up the box to prevent ADP from getting 6.6 ypc on small runs. So, they occasionally bust up the o-line and drop him for a loss.

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I want to address this real quick for all the people that hear stacking the box and just assume it leads to negative plays and less yardage. Yes, in the perfect stack the box situation it is 8 defense men vs 7 blockers. But there are plenty of runs that negate this and also leads to longer runs because it forces the SS up towards the line. Stacking the box is a fantastic defense vs the run if the DC guesses the play correctly, by positioning his players in the place they need to be positioned in. If a player is caught out of position that is when you see an 80 yard run down the sidelines.

prohornblower · #**118** 11-05-2007, 06:30 PM

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the median number of ypc is a better stat than the mean.

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This is a theory I support. At least to the extent that I've given it thought, which is to say not nearly as much as I could given infinite time and resources.

If you had a 1a/1b running back system like Dallas, and you only gave Julius Jones the ball on this side of the 50 yard line, and MB3 the ball in the offensive side and redzone, who is going to have a better mean YPC? Likely JJ, due to the fact that if he has 5 or 6 bust-out runs from his own 20, it will inflate his YPC, whereas the longest run MB3 could get would be 50 yards.

I like to give my fullback the ball on the 2 yard line in Madden so I don't damage my star running back's YPC on 3 consecutive rushes up the gut for 2 yards. lol.

Assani Fisher · #**119** 11-05-2007, 06:56 PM

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Adrian Peterson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry on carries behind the left side of his OLine and 7.3 yards per carry on carries to the left sideline. This compares to 5.4 yards on carries behind the right side of his OLine, but only 4.1 yards per carry to the right sideline.

ADP is amazing, but thats a great side of the line, and hes clearly not doing as well on the other side. I don't say any of this to take away from ADP; Rather I say it to give credit to that line.

101,360 and counting

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Let's bring it up to date shall we?

Left side 7.8, right side 5.2, middle 6.0, left sideline 7.3, right sideline 6.3.

He is running slightly more often to the left than right.

By all means we can acknowledge that left side of the line is a run blocking machine.
But you also have to acknowledge that his average yards per carry to the right side/line - a side which is maybe average in quality for the NFL- would still lead the league in yards per carry.

I'm not sure why people are trying to take out his long runs to make some comparisons- or why people are still trying to argue hes a bust or boom back, or trying to make sure people realize the left side of his line is really really good.
If people look closely they will see all of these dropoffs for nearly every back in the league- which means what... teams have a side of their line that is generally better than the other- or that a back runs slightly better one direction than another.

Peterson gets as many yards after contact as anybody in the NFL right now. He has little control as any back would of where he initially gets hit when its a jailbreak into the backfield.

fwiw- I cannot for the life of me understand why Barber doesn't get more carries, but he has dropoffs in his splits also.

I think Thayer is going the right direction though.

Spergon Wynn is a better runner than Peterson.

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Even though I specifically said it in my post, I feel as if you ignored it. Let me repeat:

My post had nothing to do with ADP. I was not trying to take anything away from him. Rather I feel as if people are not giving enough credit to that great o-line. That o-line makes a completely average back like Taylor look like a pro bowl calibre RB and they make a great RB look even better. This dispite the fact that nobody respects their passing game. Its really amazing.

101,342 and counting

BillNye · #**120** 11-05-2007, 07:23 PM

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tdarko,
He is running good irt to big plays. His pace isn't sustainable, he isn't going to run for 2000 yards. His style of running means he regularly needs to get runs like that because he will gets a decent amount of 2 yard losses and 2 and 12 or 3 and 12 are bad places all offenses and terrible places for the Vikings offense. He averaged 5ypc at Oklahoma I doubt he is going to average more in the NFL.

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Your completely wrong. To say that it is "his style of running" that results in negative gains and not the defense penetrating thought the line because they can run blitz w/o worry of passing game is ridiculous.