Austrian Business Cycle Theory Redux (long)

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i don't see the point you're making here. what are you trying to say exactly?

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i read back on this and realize i thought you said something you did not. Consider the point directed at the air rather than yourself.

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how about a general one then?

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The best i can say is, all else being equal, a society with systematic monetary intervention will have greater business cycles than one without.

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again, how would a free society business cycle work out? are you saying there'd be no peaks & troughs?


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There will likely be but not in a fashion that can be attributed to cyclical fundamental factors like they are today. There are virtually no cyclical, never-ending secular trends. On the other hand, the persistence of the current cyclical trend is sourced to a single underlying factor like centralized intervention. You can say for sure that business cycles will continue under monetary intervention but you cant say the same for a free a society.

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would people all of a sudden be able to plan better under uncertainty? if so, how?

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They would be able to plan better without distorted information which explains why they will likely be more prosperous with regards to understanding real time preferences.

The clearer the signal the more successful the interpretation will likely be. Governments distort the signals. Do you think a distorted signal allows you to plan better than a clearer one?