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#111
05-08-2007, 06:59 AM
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Re: Derby Picks
Curlin may have the most speed, but I think his lack of experience hurt him. Getting bumped had to be a first for him, to fight up to show was pretty impressive. With a clean run in the Preakness who knows.
Probably the best horses added to the field will be King of the Roxy, Xchanger and Chelokee. None of which would have been better than 20-1 in the Derby. There is no Bernardini this year. The Preakness could turn into a crappy race to bet. 
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#112
05-08-2007, 11:19 AM
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Re: Derby Picks
I agree, but ignore Chelokee at your peril.
We didn't know Bernardini would be Bernardini either, he was a 10-1 choice, right?
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#113
05-08-2007, 11:30 AM
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Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. [/ QUOTE ] VIP NO = -350. BODOG yes = +500 max $100.
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#114
05-08-2007, 01:27 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. [/ QUOTE ] VIP NO = -350. BODOG yes = +500 max $100. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a reason not to bet a fuckload on No?
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#115
05-08-2007, 01:32 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. [/ QUOTE ] VIP NO = -350. BODOG yes = +500 max $100. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a reason not to bet a fuckload on No? [/ QUOTE ] Because if you aren't simply looking for an arbitrage, the value is still on Yes all the way down to like +250 IMO.
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#117
05-08-2007, 01:46 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, really? I don't know anything about horse racing so I should probably shut up, but I'm shocked that there would be value in the Yes on one of these ultra public props. [/ QUOTE ] Naj and I both make him between +120 and +140 to win the Preakness. Let's say worst case happens and he's +160. If he wins the Preakness, after winning the Derby in visually stunning style, 8 lenghts ahead of 3rd place, and winning the BC Juvenille by 10, he will be at best -250 in the Belmont. That's an implied line of +264 and it's got some cushion built in that at least offsets the juice. I doubt I'll like the horse in the Preakness, but the value on Yes is really good above +300.
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#118
05-08-2007, 01:51 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. [/ QUOTE ] VIP NO = -350. BODOG yes = +500 max $100. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a reason not to bet a fuckload on No? [/ QUOTE ] Because if you aren't simply looking for an arbitrage, the value is still on Yes all the way down to like +250 IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I completely disagree. I unloaded on the No at -400. How can there be value all the way down to +250. You think this horse wins the triple crown more than 28% of the time. Though only 11 of 132 that have tried have done so and none in the past 29 years. Only 29 have won both the KD and preakness...still less than 28%. Now, that being said, every case is different for sure and I understand that, this horse was not that impressive to me. Im 100% open to arguments for the Yes, though it will take a lot to change my mind.
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#119
05-08-2007, 01:55 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. [/ QUOTE ] VIP NO = -350. BODOG yes = +500 max $100. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a reason not to bet a fuckload on No? [/ QUOTE ] Because if you aren't simply looking for an arbitrage, the value is still on Yes all the way down to like +250 IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I completely disagree. I unloaded on the No at -400. How can there be value all the way down to +250. You think this horse wins the triple crown more than 28% of the time. Though only 11 of 132 that have tried have done so and none in the past 29 years. Only 29 have won both the KD and preakness...still less than 28%. Now, that being said, every case is different for sure and I understand that, this horse was not that impressive to me. Im 100% open to arguments for the Yes, though it will take a lot to change my mind. [/ QUOTE ] I don't even know horse racing at all and this sounds totally ignorant to me.
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#120
05-08-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: Bodog ROFL_copter
He doesn't run them both at the same time. He has to run them sequentially. That's a big factor in terms of how to approach the bet.
And me saying 6 of the last 10 Derby winners have won the Preakness is as valid as your 29% all-time figure.
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