crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[whipsaw]

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wsex, 5dimes, and betjm have the lowest juice.

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Incredibly, BetJamaica still has their season wins over/under lines up. According to the site, they will be up until Friday at 1:00 PM EST.

There are some great opportunities on there. For example, you can get the 1-2 LAD under 89.5 at -120. The only problem is that the maximum bet is only TO WIN $250.

For those who don't realize it, just 3 games can have a large impact on the EV of a wager.

For example, let's look at the Pirates. Pitt is 3-0. The over/under is set at 71.5. Let's assume that the line is set perfectly. Just by getting off to a 3-0 start (we will ignore the strength of the opening opponent, although that would not hurt our case here as they were road games), the Pirates now have a 60.48% of winning 72 games or more.

In other words, a team that has a 50% chance of winning 72 games out of 162 will have a 60.48% chance of winning 69 out of 159. I now realize that a lot of people here won't believe these numbers, so you should buy and read Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. Or use any of the binomial calculators available on the internet.

Now if you think that Pittsburgh is actually a little BETTER than a 71.5 win team, than this is a great opportunity to grab this bet after their hot start.

If you don't have money at BetJamaica, Visa Gift Cards are probably the only chance you have of funding an account in time. Just make sure to buy the right ones.

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Not only that, but Pittsburgh is 3-0 with three road games under their belt, which should push the likelihood of them going over even higher as they have 81/159 home games remaining. Don't know how much ev it adds but it has to add some.

[New001]

Tampa is up to +290 on WSEX FWIW.

Edit: I don't know if it moved or more likely I typoed, but it's 280.

[Homer]

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Tampa is up to +290 on WSEX FWIW.

Edit: I don't know if it moved or more likely I typoed, but it's 280.

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290 at 5dimes now

[MyTurn2Raise]

crockpot
as long as your heater keeps up, I'll make ZERO posts disparaging Chicago teams in any way in sporting events.
Your picks are making me a better man.

[TheGrasshopper]

We definitely need crockpot picks for 4/6! These bets have been money.

[crockpot]

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crockpot
as long as your heater keeps up, I'll make ZERO posts disparaging Chicago teams in any way in sporting events.
Your picks are making me a better man.

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HELL HAS FROZEN OVER! i expect a cubs world series to follow.

[MyTurn2Raise]

well...my guess is they win won before the Cards do again

[crockpot]

13-8, +32.81

4/6 plays:

Tex +109 (1)
Cle -137 (1)
StL -110 (1)
Ari -104 (1)
Oak +112 (1)
KC +149 (1)
Tam +125 (5)

my system initially called for a max of 4 units because i didn't anticipate a line possibly being off by this much. apparently pinny had it at +133 for awhile; scary...

with shields vs. chacin, the d-rays are probably a neutral field favorite here. add in home-field and +125, and you're crazy to pass that up.

[crockpot]

Bal +212 (1)

[scorer]

Thanks for the picks crockpot