ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[suppasonic]

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Then you are punting K's and W's. Bad idea.

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winning all the hitting cats and 3 pitching cats = shipping the whole thing.

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Except there is no way to guarentee you win them all. Its better to be all 3's than 5 1's and 2 12's. Punting is ALWAYS a bad idea, the only exception in head-to-head, you can get by with punting one or in roto leagues with a large amount of categories. Otherwise, punting not just one, but two categories is a terrible idea.

[bugstud]

so you're telling me 3 3 3 3 3 > 12 12 1 1 1 ?

lol?

[rwperu34]

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so you're telling me 3 3 3 3 3 > 12 12 1 1 1 ?

lol?

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Overall, I agree that punting from the git go is a bad idea. You don't know that you are going to finsih first or even top three in all of the other categories, but you do know you are going to finish last in the categories that you punt.

[suppasonic]

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so you're telling me 3 3 3 3 3 > 12 12 1 1 1 ?

lol?

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12 team league. (9x5) = 45 (12x3) + (1x2) = 38. Better to get 3rd all around then punt two.

[bugstud]

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so you're telling me 3 3 3 3 3 > 12 12 1 1 1 ?

lol?

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12 team league. (9x5) = 45 (12x3) + (1x2) = 38. Better to get 3rd all around then punt two.

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well, third place would get you 10 each. secondly, I think that getting third in all 5 cats is not going to happen without early high strikeout starters, limiting your offense. Unless you manage to draft with total morons, you're gonna have to punt SOMETHING, whether or not you intend to. My suggestion is that you go for the stuff that's hard to screw up. My setup aims for ~55 hititng points and ~35 pitching points, with upside potential of getting wins and k's 2 ways. 1, dealing for starters from teams nearing the inning limit, 2, cycling starting-day pitchers at the end if need be. Disagree with it all you want, but the bigger league you play the better strat it becomes.

[crockpot]

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Except there is no way to guarentee you win them all. Its better to be all 3's than 5 1's and 2 12's. Punting is ALWAYS a bad idea, the only exception in head-to-head, you can get by with punting one or in roto leagues with a large amount of categories. Otherwise, punting not just one, but two categories is a terrible idea.

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your math is off considerably here. not using starting pitchers punts two out of 14 categories. the idea is unfeasible in a 5x5 because you usually can't recover from punting two out of ten.

are you arguing that there's no point where the tradeoff becomes a good one for you? would you refuse to punt any categories in a 50x50 league?

let's say you draft scot shields in round 15 of this league, after you've filled up a great offense. congratulations, unless he has an off year you've won four pitching categories with no effort. you can always take more middle relievers later to smooth out the variance.

i think it is much easier to assemble a stellar offense and take 2/3 of the pitching points than to go for balance. in most leagues, this would not be the case.

[crockpot]

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One more question for now, what about Howie Kendrick? Anyone else think hes a top 70 or 80 player? PECOTA likes him alot, and even The Big Board likes him. Thats two different schools that seem to think hes pretty high up there.

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he should be solid this year, but second base plateaus really fast once utley is off the board. there's little difference between kendrick, roberts, kinsler, cano, and figgins except for the shape of their contributions. and the next tier is not far below them.

i think top 70-80 is about right.

[THAY3R]

Was leaving Weeks out a mistake, or do you think he is in the next tier?

[crockpot]

perhaps i can elucidate this better via example.

i'm a big fan of scotch. on an ordinary liquor store trip, i'll bring home a nice bottle of compass box and be happy with it, just as i would be happy with a nice, balanced pitching staff. though i could buy a fifth of cluny instead for a lot less, i feel the difference in price is worth it; i would rather have a bottle of asyla than the combination of cluny and $20 in my pocket. similarly, i might feel that i would rather have the combination of ben sheets and a 15th round hitter than adam dunn and a 15th round pitcher, and draft accordingly.

only when i get to the store, i find that a nice single barrel bourbon is on clearance. now i can substitute goods. if i get a bottle of the bourbon, i'll have money left in my pocket to spend on a nice dinner instead of stopping at burger king. while i prefer the scotch, i would rather have the combination of the bourbon and a rack of carson's ribs than the scotch 'n' stacker. similarly, if i find that relievers can make me almost as happy as starters and are a lot cheaper, i prefer the combination of relievers and a studly offense to a balanced team.

assuming an equal offense, do i ordinarily prefer punting categories to building a balanced pitching staff? of course not. i'm not arguing that five tops and two bottoms beat a third-place finish in every column. i simply think the cost of building a good staff is offset by the damage it does to your offense. there's virtually no way to get one of the top two staffs in your league without costing yourself 10-15 points in hitting, unless your opponents are awful.

now, all this assumes your opponents are rational and playing a normal strategy. if anyone else is playing all-relievers, or if they are also putting a premium on hitting, this breaks down the analysis and you must change gears. recognizing these things and adjusting for them are hallmarks of the expert fantasy player.

[crockpot]

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Was leaving Weeks out a mistake, or do you think he is in the next tier?

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next tier, but he's at the top of that tier. if he can stay healthy, he can swim with the big boys.

long-term, his five category potential is balanced out by the fact that he is likely to move off second base at some point.