anyone get away from second set in massive pot HU?

[MDMA]

Really good post KKF.

[KRANTZ]

shady, youre backwards, this has nothing to do with samo being properly rolled

what el D is saying is that if this opponent is very good, he would make this move with more hands than just AA because HE is properly rolled. which im not sure i agree/disagree with, because i think people underrolled make some crazy moves in the face of very good players HU to combat what they feel like is a sense of "bullying" just as often as regs at this game push small edges and make large semibluffs/pure bluffs based on intuitive feel for their opponent's tendencies

[samoleus]

rcs I am perfectly comfortable dropping 50K in a hand (not that I like it or anything). But your reasoning is tremendously flawed. The reason to "bother playing 99" if you are going to fold on an A98 flop is IF you can be convinced that your opponent has AA. I would not lose 1000 bb's with middle set against a good opponent whether that absolute amount is 500K playing 25-50 or if it is $20 playing .01-.02. You need to understand this concept before playing deep stacked poker.

[Shady Poker]

[ QUOTE ]
rcs I am perfectly comfortable dropping 50K in a hand (not that I like it or anything). But your reasoning is tremendously flawed. The reason to "bother playing 99" if you are going to fold on an A98 flop is IF you can be convinced that your opponent has AA. I would not lose 1000 bb's with middle set against a good opponent whether that absolute amount is 500K playing 25-50 or if it is $20 playing .01-.02. You need to understand this concept before playing deep stacked poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent answer. If this is the case then the answer to this is using all your knowledge of this player. By doing so if you are still unsure then doesn't this make you lean towards pushing since there are more hands you beat than more hands you lose to and his chances for having either of these hands are too thin from one another.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Really good post KKF.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeh. def one of the best posts ive read on 2p2 in a while.

[samoleus]

Greek, if you look at this from a straight mathematical perspective, you need to work with conditional probability, not absolute probability.

[Rekrul]

you have 2nd set in a reraised pot where AK and 2 pair or even a smaller set is very possible

stop discussing

you are kidding yourself, NO LAYDOWN HERE

if he's got AA, [censored] it , monster poker

[samoleus]

I would have folded 33. Would probably have folded 88. However, as Diablo mentioned, my opponent was clearly comfortably rolled for these stakes - and while I thought AA was his most likely hand, I thought that there were some combo draw hands that he might also play the same way. Taking the combined equity/likelihood of his hand range, I decided to push. He called of course.

I made the right decision, as he had As8s. But the 4s hit the river - costing me the biggest pot of my life. C'est la vie.

Regardless of the results, I do think that the decision is very close - and those posters who think this is a no-brainer push need to think about stack depths a lot more. There is a huge difference between playing with 500 BBs and 100.

[samoleus]

Good post Big Biceps. I raised my button about 75% of the time. Of those times, he folded about 25% of the time, called about 50%% of the time, and reraised about 25% of the time.

[HEK]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How often do you guys cold call w/ AA here preflop? If never, than I guess he is allowed to bluff you out on the turn here indefinitely.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the best post of the thread I'd say (and given this thread that aint no merit really); given that an AA preflop call is very unlikely, and if someone is actually considering folding 99 here seriously, then playing JTss like this is obviously very good.

[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't matter if he can, matters only if he will.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is sitting w/ 500bbs isnt he? Sam hasnt told us the opponents name, but knowing Sam, he will probably come back and say "It was Mahatma, has anyone ever heard of him?"

And, fwiw, Sam's raise on the turn basically requires that his opponent calls him down with marginal hands, while never bluffing worse hands. So his line requires his opponent to exhibit characteristics which are not common under HU players at $25/50 NL who do not leave the table after they have 500bb's.

Sam said that his opponent "will call w/ AK and 98o for pot control". What Sam fails to realize is that good players will turn AK and 98o into a bluff here before they will start calling down with them, unless of course you have a crazy aggro image, inwhich case you can also count on them bluffing here with a wide range of hand expecting you to be weak.

I dont have any problem with floating the flop, but I would normally do this so I could create more action on the turn like you are getting here, not so that I could fold it after I under-repesented it. Again, your line requires that your opponent calls off big w/ marginal hands, while never bluffing.

He is risking $12,400 to win $7,900.

If you are going to fold second set here everytime he puts $3 in the middle to win $2 you are going to have a really rough time.

[/ QUOTE ]

kkf,

Awesome post.

HEK