2006-07 NBA Discussion Thread - Page 12

tdarko · #**111** 10-20-2006, 02:34 PM

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I think the rigors of an NBA season are much more intense physically than that of a college season.

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True. Hopefully his body holds up, he definitely has the size/frame to hold up better than some but I agree that 1 NBA season can't even be measured physcially to a college season.

Aloysius · #**112** 10-20-2006, 02:35 PM

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of course Lebron could suprise the hell out of us and replace MJ as the benchmark for which all talent is measured against.

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I don't know that it would surprise the hell out of everyone, I think it's probably a little closer than that, but your point still stands and I generally agree.

One measurable place I can see LBJ making improvements is FG% (which is scary considering he's at 48% last season). He's improved every season (42%, 47%, 48%) while FGA have also gone up, which to me is remarkable considering how much he has the ball in his hands.

I think improved shot selection will offset his decline in athleticism (which obviously gets him some easy buckets)... so net-net he could end up around FG 50%+ in the prime of his career. Assuming his FGA and assists stay around 6-7 a game, we're looking at a guy, who for maybe a 5-7 year stretch, will be averaging 32+ppg / 6 rebounds (factoring in some decline in athelticism) and 6+ assists.

That is f'in sick.

-Al

kidcolin · #**113** 10-20-2006, 02:35 PM

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I don't know for certain, but I think the number of NBA seasons played may be something to look at. I think the rigors of an NBA season are much more intense physically than that of a college season. Even though Lebron is young, playing that many games has to be a factor. I don't think its unreasonable to say that he could reach his peak physically around that age. Obviously he will still learn a lot more, but one you combine his physical ability, and likely gameplaying intelligence, I do think his peak will be around 24-25.

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At first, I agreed with this. Ignoring the small sample size, history tells a different story. Kobe is in the same boat, and he's likely at his peak now, maybe just reaching the end of it. He's 28 now. I think Kobe's going to have a monster year.

Garnett doesn't have quite as much mileage/yr due to playoffs, but he's another highschooler. He's 30 now. He peaked '00-01 to '04-'05 (jesus he's a monster).. and he plays hard, night in night out, and has never been out for significant stretches.

So I wouldn't be too surprised if LeBron follows suits and puts up peak years from ages 24-27 or 28. We'll see.

Aloysius · #**114** 10-20-2006, 02:43 PM

Lebron is 21 right now (turns 22 in December). If he makes marginal improvements to last year, stays consistent, barring any major injury - he is going to put up an insanely sick stretch of stats from age 20 (look back at 2004/05 season, amazing numbers) through 27 at least. That's 7 years right there. I think Jordan's within reach - obviously a ton of variables, but still interesting to think someone could potentially unseat Jordan.

Jordan Career Stats

-Al

kidcolin · #**115** 10-20-2006, 02:52 PM

stats, he's within reach. Adjusted for era, I don't think so. I honestly think peak Jordan would've averaged close to 40 in last season's NBA, and still have favorable assists and rebounds numbers. The rules are more favorable for guards and drivers. He'd probably grab 12/gm just from the stripe.

I'm not trying to crap on LeBron. I'd love it if he reached Jordan's level. But ever since Jordan left, the league's been trying to replace him. The Jordan-card was played for Kobe, now LeBron, and even D-Wade got that treatment in the playoffs. A lot of people are forgetting just how ridiculously good Jordan was.

Aloysius · #**116** 10-20-2006, 02:55 PM

Kid - word, although:

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Adjusted for era, I don't think so. I honestly think peak Jordan would've averaged close to 40 in last season's NBA

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I always hear this and considering how hard Jordan played on both ends, how much he shot and had the ball in his hands, I think it's very difficult to get to 40ppg for a guard, whatever the rules. But yeah, his ppg prolly go up era-adjusted (just not that much imo).

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I'm not trying to crap on LeBron. I'd love it if he reached Jordan's level. But ever since Jordan left, the league's been trying to replace him. The Jordan-card was played for Kobe, now LeBron, and even D-Wade got that treatment in the playoffs. A lot of people are forgetting just how ridiculously good Jordan was.

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Yes - Jordan was insane.

-Al

tuq · #**117** 10-20-2006, 02:57 PM

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I have a tough time believing Jordan was better in the mid 90's. Sure he may have been smarter and more focused, but he was a beast in the late 80s & early 90s. Athletes rarely get better with old age, and Jordan was no exception, despite what he says.

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Although this would drive JoA insane, I do think there are ways Jordan was "better" that can't be found in a boxscore. In the late 80's he was putting up sick numbers but at the expense of his teammates, whom he largely viewed with contempt. Once he started to accept and work within the limitations of his teammates they started winning titles. This is why I consider him "better" at that time.

FYI, it's been written in multiple places that Wilt Chamberlain's "best" year was the 1971-1972 season when they went on that 33 game winning streak. He only averaged about 15 points that year.

kidcolin · #**118** 10-20-2006, 02:58 PM

Maybe 40 is a little exagerrated, but I don't think it's out of reach. Kobe averaged 35 last year. THIRTY FIVE. And there were nights where he honestly looked like he wasn't trying.

Aloysius · #**119** 10-20-2006, 03:01 PM

Tuq - yeah, I was thinking purely stats, the "better" argument has so many intangibles (and I agree with you, e.g. Jordan put up 37.1 ppg at his peak athelticism and peak contempt for teammates haha).

Kid - I hate Kobe.

-Al

MoreWineII · #**120** 10-20-2006, 03:05 PM

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On the other hand, Magloire looks like dogshit.

[/ QUOTE ] when has signing a FORMER all star ever worked out? My buddy is so sold on magloire [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I wasn't expecting a ton, but he looks totally overmatched. He lasted about 15 mins in the GS game before Nate pulled him out of pity. In that game he had 2 pts and 5 rebounds to go along with 5 personal fouls (in 17 minutes!!) and 6 turnovers. He followed that up last night at Utah with 3 points (on 0 of 4 shooting) and 4 rebounds, along with 3 fouls and 2 turnovers in 25 minutes....so I guess that's improvement...