***Official July Fantasy Baseball Thread*** - Page 12

Karak567 · #**111** 07-11-2007, 12:04 AM

my first post in response to you was rude too... so i apologize

this is cute

anyways the more guys that get on base, over time, the more runs you score. the sox are running bad right now... it'll even out

NT! · #**112** 07-11-2007, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
anyways the more guys that get on base, over time, the more runs you score. the sox are running bad right now... it'll even out

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i definitely agree with this... but in regards to fantasy value, in an extreme circumstance if manny all of a sudden started being a .300/.450/.400 guy instead of a .300/.450/.600 guy, that would probably have a negative effect on his RBIs, no? but instead, right now he is a .239/.381/.386 guy with men on base, a good .300 points below his career OPS in those circumstances

i guess the bigger problem with manny is the fact that he hasn't been slugging and is on pace for like 26 homers. even when you factor in that he often starts slow, he is usually cooking by now. there are a lot of 'running bad' splits cited above but just from watching the games, manny seems a bit less aggressive and a bit slower to turn one around than he has in years past. i think some of it can be attributed to decline and i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with something like a .290/.400/.500 line this year. which is still obviously good, but it's not what i drafted him for.

slothinator · #**113** 07-11-2007, 12:43 AM

NT,

Think about this. Which is worse; hanging on to Manny and he ends up at .285/26 HR/85 RBI, or you trade him and he ends up at .300/35 HR/ 100 RBI because he has a monster August and September? At his current pace, he's still better than your alternative (a 39 year old Luis Gonzalez; nice numbers, but not Manny Ramirez). Unless the trade you get is the absolute nuts, you are better off hanging on to him.

NT! · #**114** 07-11-2007, 12:51 AM

sloth,

gonzalez is actually hitting right around his career numbers, and he's been better than manny so far this year. i agree, i am reluctant to trade manny because he could bust out big time, but just watching the games i am like, wtf he is not gonna do it this year.

WFDeac · #**115** 07-11-2007, 12:59 AM

Better 2nd Half: Richie Sexson or Adam LaRoche?

kkcountry · #**116** 07-11-2007, 01:09 AM

hello all, i am currently dominating my 10 person league, but i have a gaping hole at catcher (thank you cubs/barrett/zambrano/pinella/etc.)

it is a weekly points league (where we only set the rosters before monday's games) where this batting points are awarded as follows:

1B: 1
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 4
RBI: 1
R: 1
SB: 1

oh they stack as well (a grand slam is worth 4+4+1)

anyway, trading for a catcher isn't going to happen (the only guy with one to spare is playing posada at C and v martinez at 1B, and wants a king's ransom for posada) so here's what i have availible from the free agency market:

Olivo
Barrett
Pierzynski
Napoli
Ross
Laird
Saltamacchia

and a bunch of other similar scrubs.

since my league rewards power hitting and getting a lot of at bats, who should i be looking to pick up?

thanks!

slothinator · #**117** 07-11-2007, 01:12 AM

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Better 2nd Half: Richie Sexson or Adam LaRoche?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to see that you have to choose between these two; aren't there better options on your WW?

If you have no choice, go with LaRoche. I remember an article last spring where Ron Schandler (with data from The Baseball Injury Report) predicted that Sexson would have a down year because there was a 30% chance that lingering effects from Sexson's shoulder separation would affect him. Looks like he missed it by a season. I've seen Sexson play a few times this year and swing looks terrible, or at least worse than usual. When I saw him this past Sunday, he was swinging with his upper body and looked like he was chopping wood. He kept pulling his hands in towards his body, even when swinging (and missing) pitches on the outer half. Plus Sexson has had calf and thumb trouble this year. At least LaRoche offers the hope of productive 2nd half.

slothinator · #**118** 07-11-2007, 01:16 AM

kkcountry,

In your scoring system, I'd be inclined to take Olivo first, then Pierznyski , then Laird. Barret is splitting time 50/50 with Bard, Napoli is hurt and splits 60/40 with Molina. Salty is a backup, and Ross disappears for 2-3 weeks at a time.

rwperu34 · #**119** 07-11-2007, 02:36 AM

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Haren and Cust for Sheffield and Kevin Gregg

pretty baller trade eh?

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That's a good deal as well your others. It looks like everybody wants to overpay for Haren. See if you can milk some more out of the other guys, but don't let it linger. It won't take but one or two bad starts and people will cool off on Haren.

rwperu34 · #**120** 07-11-2007, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so what do we think of Brad Penny? due for a bad 2nd half, or is this a return to good form for him?

I'm torn on him. his first half was great, and anything close to that in the 2nd would help me out. in addition, he only costs me $3, so could be a good player next year at $6.

hedge my bet by trading now for a good player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Penny is definitely due for some regression, so if you can get somebody to pay for a 2.40 ERA type of pitcher, go ahead and make the move. I wouldn't expect a meltdown, but a homerun every 32 FB is not sustainable.