where does a-rod play next season?

[prohornblower]

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Probably Wrigley Stadium

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please be a level

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Now I'm not sure if you are levelling me or not. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[DesertCat]

BTW, to position how good A-Rod is, this is where he's on the active OPS+ list.

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1. Barry Bonds* (42) 182 L
2. Albert Pujols (27) 169 R
3. Frank Thomas (39) 157 R
4. Manny Ramirez (35) 155 R
5. Jim Thome* (36) 149 L
6. Jason Giambi* (36) 148 L
Vladimir Guerrero (31) 148 R
Alex Rodriguez (31) 148 R
9. Lance Berkman# (31) 147 B
10. Miguel Cabrera (24) 144 R
Chipper Jones# (35) 144 B
Gary Sheffield (38) 144 R


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Arguably A-Rod has the most defensive value of anyone on this list, that's what sets him apart. But in four or five years he's likely to be putting up an OPS+ of 130 and isn't a good defender anymore, he's not going to even be top twenty valuable anymore. Sheffield for example, hasn't put up a 140 OPS+ season since he turned 35. Manny just put up a 129 in his age 35 year, after 8 straight years of 152+.

So to answer your question, I think the Yankees will overpay to keep A-Rod from opting out. They'll give him a 4 year $120M extension, making the remainder of his deal 7/$200M for about a $28.5M average, but with to the Texas subsidy will only cost them about $24M a year.

[wisehandpoker]

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BTW, to position how good A-Rod is, this is where he's on the active OPS+ list.

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1. Barry Bonds* (42) 182 L
2. Albert Pujols (27) 169 R
3. Frank Thomas (39) 157 R
4. Manny Ramirez (35) 155 R
5. Jim Thome* (36) 149 L
6. Jason Giambi* (36) 148 L
Vladimir Guerrero (31) 148 R
Alex Rodriguez (31) 148 R
9. Lance Berkman# (31) 147 B
10. Miguel Cabrera (24) 144 R
Chipper Jones# (35) 144 B
Gary Sheffield (38) 144 R


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Arguably A-Rod has the most defensive value of anyone on this list, that's what sets him apart. But in four or five years he's likely to be putting up an OPS+ of 130 and isn't a good defender anymore, he's not going to even be top twenty valuable anymore. Sheffield for example, hasn't put up a 140 OPS+ season since he turned 35. Manny just put up a 129 in his age 35 year, after 8 straight years of 152+.

So to answer your question, I think the Yankees will overpay to keep A-Rod from opting out. They'll give him a 4 year $120M extension, making the remainder of his deal 7/$200M for about a $28.5M average, but with to the Texas subsidy will only cost them about $24M a year.

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You're spending far too much energy on baseball statistics and not enough on financial ones. OPS+ doesn't matter much by comparison to YES profitability and the value of a home run chase.

[Jack of Arcades]

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How many years has it been since a baseball player got even $20M per year on a long term deal?

[/ QUOTE ] Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito both got $18m, last season.

[Matt Williams]

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No one wants to pay $30M a year for a below average defensive 3B hitting 35 HRs and missing 20 games a year, which almost certainly the likely scenario for his late thirties. He'll still be valuable, but more like $10M-$15M per year valuable.


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You are forgotting something important. A-Rod won't be your typical late 30's 3rd Baseman. He will be a 3rd baseman who may be appoaching 800+ HR's. That alone will boost his value. Boras is going to be focusing on the fact that when A-Rod is almost 40, he will be MORE marketable than he is now and deserves to get paid accordingly.

[Franchise 60]

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No one wants to pay $30M a year for a below average defensive 3B hitting 35 HRs and missing 20 games a year, which almost certainly the likely scenario for his late thirties. He'll still be valuable, but more like $10M-$15M per year valuable.


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You are forgotting something important. A-Rod won't be your typical late 30's 3rd Baseman. He will be a 3rd baseman who may be appoaching 800+ HR's. That alone will boost his value. Boras is going to be focusing on the fact that when A-Rod is almost 40, he will be MORE marketable than he is now and deserves to get paid accordingly.

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Yea thats what I was saying to, if/when his numbers slide, other factors will raise his value.

Also, just because he is going to be 38 at the tail end of the contract doesn't mean that he won't be able to play 145-155 games in a season, especially when you factor in being able to play DH once and a while.

Nomar and Bonds were used as evidence for the decline of older players, which isn't really a fair analogy. First, Nomar's injury decline started during what should have been his prime, his early 30's. And Nomar was never as durable a player as A-Rod, he had multiple seasons early in his career where he missed 20+ games, and that was before injuries derailed his career.

Bonds was your other evidence for how A-Rod will be injured when he was at the end of his contract. From the age of 37-40 Bonds played in 153, 143, 130, and 147 games respectfully. Not to mention Bonds played OF in the NL, which is much more taxing on a body then 3B in the AL, where DH'n when a fatigue comes up greatly increases the ability for a 38 yr old player to play 150 games.

Compare those numbers with Garciaperra's first 4 full seasons when he was "healthy": 153, 143, 135, 140.

Where is the difference? You used Nomar as an example of a player declining in age, when he was never healthier at 26 then Bonds was at 38.

Your whole anti A-rod argument is based on A-Rod being injured and his production dramitcally declining, when the two players you offered as evidence dispute your point, and he is one of the most durable players in MLB, at a position that doesn't tax him as much as postitions such as OF, SS, C.

[DesertCat]

His HR chase adds value, but how much? Yankees fans will always watch YES as long as the Yankees are in contention. The stats that Boras uses to try to show ARods ratings impact are skewed because they dont adjust for YES's greater distribution.

Home run chases are minor blips compared to the constant draw of a winning team.

[Franchise 60]

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His HR chase adds value, but how much? Yankees fans will always watch YES as long as the Yankees are in contention. The stats that Boras uses to try to show ARods ratings impact are skewed because they dont adjust for YES's greater distribution.

Home run chases are minor blips compared to the constant draw of a winning team.

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I think you are vastly underestimating how big of a deal it will be when A-Rod approaches the HR record. He is considered to be a "clean" player, and it will be a much bigger/celebrated story when/if he breaks Bonds record.

Also, YES is now valued as worth more than the actual Yankees. My friend in New Orleans gets YES on his sports package, and I am sure in 4 years it will be much more readily available across the country than it is now.

This means a home run chase = more ratings and more ad revenue for the network because people will be watching him as he goes after this record. In 5 years people will be ready to wipe away the steroids era, and whatever team arod plays for, he will be the face of that. People will embrace him and the chase, because it seperates the record book from Bonds and all the other [censored] everyone is tired of.

[DesertCat]

How much value did Ken Griffey Jrs future home run records add to his last contract? ARod may never get hurt, but any GM needs to factor in the risks. Bonds missed 19 games a year in his late thirties then fell off a cliff. A-Rod may not get close to 700 until he's 40. He could have double microfracture knee surgery, or catch a crippling STD from a she male stripper.

I'm not saying he's not a great player. I'm not saying he won't get offered a ton of money. I'm saying bidders are going to try to limit their risks by limiting years and they arent going to offer 50% more than other top players get each year.

[ArcticKnight]

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How many years has it been since a baseball player got even $20M per year on a long term deal?

[/ QUOTE ] Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito both got $18m, last season.

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I think Vernon Wells is in that 18M range as well.