Thurs night NCAA football

[MyTurn2Raise]

I didn't say not to read him

I read everyone

Hell, I chat on AIM with Thremp quite a bit and he's the biggest dick to everyone on the forum

[rush66]

Hahaha, maybe you can give us his money making methods then, because after over a year here, I cant figure them out.

[hedgie43]

Two words: line shopping.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Hahaha, maybe you can give us his money making methods then, because after over a year here, I cant figure them out.

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he finds people that have a profitable niche, or expert knowledge in a niche

he then incessantly pesters them through PM or AIM until they give him 90% of what they know

knowing 90% in alot of fields = money to someone who applies it

[dankhank]

yea i don't think thremp does anything different than you rush, except he probably makes more aggresive use of kelly

[rush66]

Good point MT2R. Im just messing with him anyways, he seems ridiculously intelligent.

Hank,

I dont know about that, because its extremely difficult to apply Kelly to the way I play, so I dont bother. I cant really explain it that well. Im really hoping that Kabox can come back me up here b/c I know me saying I dont use kelly is gonna get me lit up, which is fine.

[dankhank]

i assume it just means you max bet at SIA a lot

[rush66]

Nah, I dont play softside of arbs, if thats what you mean.

[rush66]

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well for the second straight year i am picking up steam as the college football season goes along. it is not because i know more about the teams myself, but because the people i follow and the invisible sharp money i tail is getting smarter about their picks. the same is true in the nfl. conventional wisdom is that the middle of the ncaa and nfl seasons is the most profitable. early on, people can't handicap properly, and late, even the slow learners have picked up on how teams compare.

in contrast, a lot of people think the start of the nba and mlb season is the most lucrative period. the difference being that there's a lot more turnover in football than the other two sports. in ncaa basketball the best period is december. once you hit conference play and teams start facing each other multiple times, again, even the slow learners are able to make accurate comparative judgments.

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BTW Hank, I thought this post was extremely insightful as well.

[thelyingthief]

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hedgie:

you continue to misconstrue, misunderstand, and revise my replies.

i did not say, 12 consecutive losses eliminates your bankroll. i said, since the outcome of these wagers are independent, it is possible to run into sequences of negative outcomes, and that can put undue pressure on your br. if you are too stupid to comprehend what you read, that is YOUR failing, not mine.

kelly optimizes growth when all the parameters are fixed and well determined. it is my contention that sports betting, and football betting in particular are not so determinable. therefore, it is wise to bet percentages of kelly, since any given proposition cannot be determined with sufficient accuracy.

are you so stupid that this eludes you?

if you bet an ASSumed .35 probability (and it IS assumed) into a line that offers .075 return on investment, then you are NOT betting +EV; you are gambling. your entire argument is theoretical to the extreme: again, my argument rests upon the real world observation that you cannot identify any specific outcome with the degree of accuracy necessary to consistently make money at those odds.

are you so stupid that this eludes you?

you state that i SEEM TO IMPLY the unbeatable nature of the game. i in fact state unequivocally that YOU don't beat the game: how this implies the unbeatable nature of the game, i fail to see. furthermore, i have beat the game for significant money every year i have been involved in it. thus, i have irrefutable proof that it IS beatable.

and pardon me if i inadvertently drop the copula. also, if you don't know what "woodshed" implies (and from your behavior it is obvious to me you don't), it's what adults used to do to nasty little children when they were intractable. it's called "spanking" nowadays; it's a shame you weren't introduced to it, then, so your familiars wouldn't have to cope with your childish nastiness, now.

QED: hedgie is, in fact, stupid. tlt.

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ignoring the unpleasantry, i simply do not see what is incomprehensible or invalid in these statements.

i recommend "commonsense betting" and/or "bankroll control" to those who think them improbable or erroneous.

tlt