EPT Monte Carlo Trip Report (3rd and Final Part)

[Jurollo]

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the small pairs part is a bad start, inclduing 4x and 2x

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Ok... rework either range... I am curious as to what everyone could come up with...

VERY IMPORTANT
Adam says he had Ac... which improves his equity a good deal I think. But continue tweaking as you wish.

[RaMz123]

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Jurollo agreed it's a good start and gets at Patrik's postflop decision fairly well, but there's just no way he's equally likely to fourbet J3 clubs as AK clubs, for example. Preflop weightings have to be estimated/accounted for somehow.

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He may 4bet J3 more often than AK ur right

[skier_5]

I'm not sure why anybody doesn't think this can be a stronger hand often, sure not every time, but with they need to be added to ranges with some weighting.

I mean, Adam says that he's unknown to PA but they've been mixing it up a bit so PA has to know that Adam is thinking on some level. Also a lot of people won't call that 4bet near as lightly as Adam did. And at one point there has to be the "I'll shove the flop and represent Ak thought".

[sethypooh21]

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I'm not sure why anybody doesn't think this can be a stronger hand often, sure not every time, but with they need to be added to ranges with some weighting.

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I also think we need to weight for OP's read. I mean, if his read on Antonius PF was wrong, then he sucks at life and the call is stupid. What's the point of having a read if that read doesn't help you narrow the range?

However, assuming that his PF read of Antonius at this point in the hand is basically "crap," I stand by my earlier statement that 53 was among the better holdings PA has here, at least WRT his equity once OP called.

[LearnedfromTV]

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Jurollo agreed it's a good start and gets at Patrik's postflop decision fairly well, but there's just no way he's equally likely to fourbet J3 clubs as AK clubs, for example. Preflop weightings have to be estimated/accounted for somehow.

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He may 4bet J3 more often than AK ur right

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There's 0 chance you are right. Because the weighting starts with the open raise. Even if he'd call the 3bet (OOP!) instead of 4 bet w/ AK some significant percentange, and would 100% 4 bet or fold J3s, he makes the first raise 100% of the time with AK and a small % of the time with J3. For every preflop action sequence other than fold initially, AK is a bigger part of the range than J3s.

Adam having the A club is obviously important but I think it hurts more than helps, because we like Ax clubs in the range (even if AK is one of those).

I'll buy that 55-77 doesn't fit because it only has two outs if called but shoving something like 4x/2x isn't much different from shoving 53 (5 outs versus AA v 8 for the oe straight draw). Patrick has to have Adam's range as fairly narrow, and strong. Against the hands Adam might call with his equity with 53 isn't much different than with 54, and being called has to be a fairly low probability outcome in Patrik's mind to make the shove.

Also, putting aside the hand where he has the most equity when called (the only OESD), Patrik's equity when called is basically the same if he shoves AK and if he shoves 54.

[AntonHeat]

sick hand, one for the ages yo [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mlagoo]

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Also...
I have wanted to ask this... give me a range for PA, someone, anyone. A reasonable range for PA.
~J

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53, FD, AK

[RaMz123]

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I know Patrik’s opening any 2 from the CO. The players in the blinds were also very tight.


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[RaMz123]

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Also...
I have wanted to ask this... give me a range for PA, someone, anyone. A reasonable range for PA.
~J

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53, FD, AK

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add A3, and theres a decent chance that he would push with 4x and 2s also, but the other hands are much more likely obv.

[HojoMofo]

Media coverage = +EV
Can never start too early. Sure winning the tourney gets you more, but any bit helps. Not saying everyone should be making calls with air, but getting a little attention for a sick call can go a long way, atleast if its a start of pattern of them.