Proposed proposition bet with Gigabet

[BigHef]

I'm down for $100 - and I expect to double up [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Izverg04]

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I really dont want it to be a cake walk

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Why not? Supply is met by demand, why lower the price?

[citanul]

because he's not on gigabet's side of the bet, he's on the other side.

c

[Melchiades]

Supply isn't met by demand though. So far about 20 players have said they are in for 100, basicly to buy his HH's. No one really thinks it is a +EV bet in itself. Thats why no one has come out and said I'll take 2k. I'm sure there is a far way to go before reaching 10k. Even if all the people saying in this thread that they are in for 100 will actually pay up when the time comes, highly doubtfull.

[citanul]

gigabet isn't stupid. he wouldn't allow the bet to actually start without having the money held by a 3rd party of some sort. now, on the other hand, prop bets where he figures to be a loser, i've heard mixed reviews of.

c

[Melchiades]

Thats not what I meant. I ony meant that the fact that about 20 people in this thread has said "I'm in for 100", by no means that all 20 of these people will still be in in a few days time when time comes to actually trasfer money to the third party. People change their mind.

So saying supply is met by demand may be a bit off, since even if all people saying they are interested actually decides to transfer the money they are a far way off 10k.

[Flight_Risk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Proposed proposition bet between Gigabet and the yet to be recruited participants.


Gigabet has agreed to take part in this study

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=0#Post4450003

and would like to make a friendly $10,000 wager to go along with it.

I’ve written the following rough draft. Lets get it in a final agreed on form before I send it to Gigabet for his approval. After we get this finalized and Gigabet has agreed to terms I will start soliciting participants. I will also in the future learn to keep my damn mouth shut so I’m not put in charge. Ok all you lawyers out there, now is your time to shine.

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Gigabet has agreed on principle to a bet on his completing exactly 100 games at each of the levels of 10 person Party Poker no limit holdem sng’s starting at $11’s and continuing through $215’s. His starting bankroll for this bet will be $165 and cannot be added to. The sets of 100 games at each level must be completed in order, starting with the $11’s and progressing up to the $215’s. If at anytime he falls below the amount needed to buy-in at the level he is currently at he will be deemed to have lost the bet.

I (lacky) will have password access to log into the account in which the bet is being played to view the account activity and verify the bet was completed fairly.

Gigabet agrees to provide access to the complete hand history for each game played. He also agrees to a non-binding gentleman’s agreement to complete the study of 100 games per level and provide hand histories for those games regardless of the outcome of the bet. This is a value added incentive I will use to generate enough interest to reach the minimum bet amount of $10,000.

In the event I am able to find enough participants to reach the minimum bet amount of $10,000, all money collected will be matched by an equal amount by gigabit and escrowed with a mutually agreed upon 3rd party until the completion of the bet.


***edit****i really wasnt looking for participents at this stage, but as the majority of responses at this point are about that, my initial thought is a minimum participation of $100. Ideally it would be much higher so I didnt have to deal with too many people, but i hate to price people out

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Wow, intuitively I would say Giga is a HUGE favorite to win this bet? Is there some weird catch that Im missing? It seems ridiculously in his favor.

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Although I haven't read the other replies, curtains, I believe that there are alot of players willing to jump in on this prop bet simply because they get to see Gigabet's Hand Histories. If everyone from a lowly $6 player to a veteran $215 nemesis can get to do this (have access to the HHs), then it's probably money well spent even if Gigabet wins.

Flight_Risk

[FlyWf]

Curtains gives out HH for free and then other people select the interesting hands also for free, and then even more people discuss those hands for free. Seeing Gigabet's HHs without having a chance to ask why he did something is pretty much worthless. It's not like there's a secret hand that he knows to play that us mortals fold, he makes better decisions every hand. You'd be better off spending that $100 to get some coaching, you could probably get 3 or 4 hours from a good 800 chip player with that.

And this propbet as described is a joke. I suspect it's even worse than the simulators describe because Gigabet isn't playing to maximise ROI, he's playing to avoid busting out.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtains gives out HH for free and then other people select the interesting hands also for free, and then even more people discuss those hands for free. Seeing Gigabet's HHs without having a chance to ask why he did something is pretty much worthless. It's not like there's a secret hand that he knows to play that us mortals fold, he makes better decisions every hand. You'd be better off spending that $100 to get some coaching, you could probably get 3 or 4 hours from a good 800 chip player with that.

And this propbet as described is a joke. I suspect it's even worse than the simulators describe because Gigabet isn't playing to maximise ROI, he's playing to avoid busting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post misses the mark on a number of points.

a) curtain's HHs are only for the 215s. these are almost completely irrelevant for 800 chip players. so that argument doesn't really fly.

b) seeing gigabet's HHs without explanation are still worth $100, even if its just to see that he plays a hand differently from you, and then to examine why you play the hand the way you do. $100 is nothing.

c) i question how much coaching you could get for $100, much less how many decent coaches out there specialize in 800 chip games.

d) saying that gigabet is playing to "not bust out" rather than to maximize ROI doesnt make sense. isnt maximizing his ROI the best way to not bust out?

[Flight_Risk]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtains gives out HH for free and then other people select the interesting hands also for free, and then even more people discuss those hands for free. Seeing Gigabet's HHs without having a chance to ask why he did something is pretty much worthless. It's not like there's a secret hand that he knows to play that us mortals fold, he makes better decisions every hand. You'd be better off spending that $100 to get some coaching, you could probably get 3 or 4 hours from a good 800 chip player with that.

And this propbet as described is a joke. I suspect it's even worse than the simulators describe because Gigabet isn't playing to maximise ROI, he's playing to avoid busting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, I agree with you totally. I apprecitae what curtains has done with his HHs and when I joined this forum, I started a thread about it. I was only pointing out what alot of players' motivation for taking on a losing prop bet would be, potentially knowing that Gigabet is a favorite to win. Good points.

Flight_Risk