#111
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you look at the ML instead of the spread? I mean if we're going to deride his post... Why not atleast use the appropriate expert index? [/ QUOTE ] I was going to ask if there was any evidence to show that a 7-point home favorite won more often than a 7.5-point underdog favorite. I'm curious if there's any weight to the idea that a 7.5 point underdog at home will either get blown out or win a close one. |
#112
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
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If you just take the highest favorite, you might have lost in week 1 (The two highest favorites were tied at -6.5 and one lost outright) [/ QUOTE ] Well, the books are typically smarter than you. But I still think the Jax/Tenn line was too high. |
#113
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
Am I the only one on Baltimore this week? They seemed like the best pick to me. Plus, like 35% of the field is on NE.
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#114
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
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Am I the only one on Baltimore this week? They seemed like the best pick to me. Plus, like 35% of the field is on NE. [/ QUOTE ] I'm taking Baltimore. My plan was to save New England for when they hosted Cleveland. (That's not looking as good as it did before last Sunday, but I'm sticking with it) |
#115
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to ask if there was any evidence to show that a 7-point home favorite won more often than a 7.5-point underdog favorite. I'm curious if there's any weight to the idea that a 7.5 point underdog at home will either get blown out or win a close one. [/ QUOTE ] My database only goes back to 2002, so take it for what it's worth, but I actually found that a 7-point home favourite did win more often than a 7.5-point road favourite. But the sample size is too small for the 7.5 road faves; one more win and they pull even. I matched all the equal home and road spreads (as I presume FO did) and found no bias for the home or road team. So really, it all comes down to the moneylines and separation. I've re-done all my separation calcs, but it's quite dull and I doubt anyone cares. That's pretty much all there is to it. |
#116
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
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Plus, like 35% of the field is on NE. [/ QUOTE ] We've got close to 70% on NE this weekend. 18/26. Myself included. We don't see the picks until after the deadline. |
#117
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
Is Week 4 San Diego starting to look bad?
Is Dallas starting to look good? (Jackson out) |
#118
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
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Is Week 4 San Diego starting to look bad? Is Dallas starting to look good? (Jackson out) [/ QUOTE ] Well, those are your two choices. I still haven't decided which one of them I'm going to be on. |
#119
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
Only two players in my league dropped out and only 2 others were on NE. That leaves 8 of us.
I may switch my SD pick to Dallas this week and save SD possibly for Oakland in 3 weeks when they'll hopefully get things going. St. Louis without Jackson and missing yet another OL is a bad team. Dallas's best home matchup otherwise is Minny in a few weeks, but I may not be as comfortable with that as I am with StL right now. |
#120
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
I've got Dallas this week. I've already used Pittsburgh, Baltimore and New England.
I made a bet w/ a friend about who would do better in this if he made all his picks ahead of time and I made mine week to week. He has the Texans on the road vs. Atlanta this week. So I will win the bet w/ a Houston loss and a Dallas victory. |
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