NCAA College Football Week 11 -- Rank'em

[TomCollins]

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Tom,

That means nothing.

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It means that Cal isn't even that good this year.

[tdarko]

Tom,

If you want to play the who beat who game then that means Oregon isn't even that good this year right--I mean the 6th ranked team in the conference beat them, the Cal team that isn't even any good? See how this doesn't make sense now? You can't just make blanket statements and have them be fact, sports aren't black and white and there are tons of circumstance and factors involved.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

If you want to play the who beat who game then that means Oregon isn't even that good this year right--I mean the 6th ranked team in the conference beat them, the Cal team that isn't even any good? See how this doesn't make sense now? You can't just make blanket statements and have them be fact, sports aren't black and white and there are tons of circumstance and factors involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not playing the who beat who game. I'm playing the "a team has 4 losses game". I didn't say they weren't any good, just that they were not that good of a team.

[tdarko]

Tom,

Nevermind.

[pirateboy]

Let's not forget Cal got a fumble return TD (questionable) and a punt return TD, which is the difference in that ballgame. Cal deserved to win, but it was closer than the score.

[iggymcfly]

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Turnovers are a pretty big part. They're #1 in the nation in turnover margin which is about 95% luck. Sagarin does not adjust for that stat at all.

It is kinda funny that I've positioned myself as the Kansas basher in this thread though. I actually bet on them 3 of the last 4 weeks, watched large portions of their games the last 3 weeks, and was for the most part impressed. I still think they're a very good team that has been undervalued by the betting markets more often than not. I just don't think they're Top 3 and I don't think they'll beat Missouri.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turnovers are 95% luck? Wow, that might be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love blanket denials with no reasoning behind them. You're basically saying "I never thought of that before, it must not be true." Let's take a look at the Top Ten teams in turnover margin this year and see if there's any correlation between how they do on turnovers and how they did last year:

<u>2006 TO margin of 2007 TO margin Top 10</u>
1. Kansas: -5
2. Florida Atlantic: +1
3. Cincinnatti: -6
4. West Virginia: +7
5. Ball State: +1
5. LSU: 0
7. East Carolina: +4
8. Connecticut: -1
8. San Jose State: +9
10. Clemson: +2
10. Iowa: -11
10. Middle Tennessee State: +6
10. UTEP: 0
10. Virginia Tech: +4

So, the combined TO margin last year of this year's Top 14 (after ties)? +11. That averages to 0.78 turnovers per season for the nation's elite in that category. Kansas's turnover margin this year is +20. So if we assume that 0.78 of those 20 turnovers were due to Kansas's skill (a pretty reasonable assumption IMO), that would mean that 96% of their gains from turnovers this season were due to luck, an even higher amount than my conservative estimate.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

If you want to play the who beat who game then that means Oregon isn't even that good this year right--I mean the 6th ranked team in the conference beat them, the Cal team that isn't even any good? See how this doesn't make sense now? You can't just make blanket statements and have them be fact, sports aren't black and white and there are tons of circumstance and factors involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not playing the who beat who game. I'm playing the "a team has 4 losses game". I didn't say they weren't any good, just that they were not that good of a team.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or maybe the Pac is stacked this year and a tough conference to play in.

b

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turnovers are a pretty big part. They're #1 in the nation in turnover margin which is about 95% luck. Sagarin does not adjust for that stat at all.

It is kinda funny that I've positioned myself as the Kansas basher in this thread though. I actually bet on them 3 of the last 4 weeks, watched large portions of their games the last 3 weeks, and was for the most part impressed. I still think they're a very good team that has been undervalued by the betting markets more often than not. I just don't think they're Top 3 and I don't think they'll beat Missouri.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turnovers are 95% luck? Wow, that might be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love blanket denials with no reasoning behind them. You're basically saying "I never thought of that before, it must not be true." Let's take a look at the Top Ten teams in turnover margin this year and see if there's any correlation between how they do on turnovers and how they did last year:

<u>2006 TO margin of 2007 TO margin Top 10</u>
1. Kansas: -5
2. Florida Atlantic: +1
3. Cincinnatti: -6
4. West Virginia: +7
5. Ball State: +1
5. LSU: 0
7. East Carolina: +4
8. Connecticut: -1
8. San Jose State: +9
10. Clemson: +2
10. Iowa: -11
10. Middle Tennessee State: +6
10. UTEP: 0
10. Virginia Tech: +4

So, the combined TO margin last year of this year's Top 14 (after ties)? +11. That averages to 0.78 turnovers per season for the nation's elite in that category. Kansas's turnover margin this year is +20. So if we assume that 0.78 of those 20 turnovers were due to Kansas's skill (a pretty reasonable assumption IMO), that would mean that 96% of their gains from turnovers this season were due to luck, an even higher amount than my conservative estimate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure why you are comparing last years stats to this years and acting like its even close to the same team. Your analysis is almost always full of such terrible logic, its no wonder why you thought GATECH was top 5.

Fumbles tend to have a bit more variance to them and have some elements of luck in them. Interceptions (when tipped especially) have a smaller degree of "luck" to them.

[bernie]

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LSU over VT, that's about it.

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L #21 Auburn vs #11 South Florida 23-26
L #83 Mississippi vs #13 Missouri 25-38
W #2 LSU vs #17 Virginia Tech 48-7
W #20 Kentucky vs #33 Louisville 40-34

There's a whole host of out of conference home games versus Sagarin predictor 40-100 teams, and I think the SEC might have won all of them. So it's not useful information for bashing the SEC.

[/ QUOTE ]

SEC generally doesn't travel for tough games. Especially the top teams. Away games carry more weight than home games. SEC seemingly avoids them like the plague.

b

[tdarko]

Bernie,

I know you are a westcoast bro and I basically take the stance that SEC and Pac-10 are the class of the country every year and you can't go wrong with either but Sagarin actually has them #3 this year and has the Big East ahead of them.