Official April Thread: General Discussion/etc

[lassie]

Jesus christ. I run sick gooot.

[AceCR9]

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good2cu is playing 400NL @ ps right now ?
why ?

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he is saving up for his next 40k SNG, obviously

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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you should know that 95K breakeven hand streaks are possible for a winning player .. also we've seen graphs from HEK and equal demonstrating this.

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Possible, not likely

If I was down 20 BI in my last 50k hands I couldn't imagine being as ignorant as you.

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"Someday you will run worse than you ever thought possible"

Can't remember who originally said it, but it's oh-so-true.

I'm currently down a couple buyins after 100k hands.

KoW

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Think that was DJ Sensei.

[HP]

+1 on the "Someday you will run worse than you ever thought possible"

and I'm only on a 30k breakeven stretch

I guess that's a brag?

[Reef]

30k breakeven streaks are the new 10k breakeven streaks

[kotkis]

Re: all this variance stuff:

I spent a little time studying my graph for the year in BB's:



Maybe others who are as bored as myself can do the same. My sample includes around 23k hands of HU at FTP in the early hands, and then the big up slope is my nice run at Party 6-max that unfortunately took a hit at the top, although fortunately most of it was at 5/10 and not 10/20.

[G_Dollaz]

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honestly i dont think ive ever been on a 40 buyin downswing. wtf you people are crazy.

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Agree. Kinda wondering if we're being leveled here? lol

I just checked my graph, I've had one 20 buy-in downswing so far this year in a little over 200k hands. A few more between 10 and 20. However I certainly moved down in probably every one of these instances. I also tend to tilt pretty hard imo, this probably accounts for almost all of the >10bi downswings I've had. Almost all these hands are at the pretty tough games on FTP 6max (some HU too, which is far more swingy).

I guess I wouldn't put 30 out of the ballpark, but regularly hitting 30 bi downswings or any 40 bi downswings would seriously cause me to question my edge.

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I mean I'm not leveling anyone... the first graph I posted is a 30 buy in downswing from this month, the 2nd graph I posted is from Dec and includes a 40 buy in downswing, and another 20 buy in downswing. Even with these taken into account I'm running at 2.5 over this 600k hand sample. I'm honestly surprised that you guys don't go through these types of swings, I'm not trying to make myself feel better or what not, I just thought it was pretty common, maybe not, who knows....

[Bigmoney]

wow that is definitely not normal

[feesjah]

WTF dude o_O

[ddubois]

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*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pez_vela [7h 9s]
Bewator folds
GatorGotcha folds
pez_vela raises to $175
cymbaline calls $175
Temaki folds
BRING_DA_NOISE folds
*** FLOP *** [5s Tc 7s]
pez_vela checks
cymbaline bets $300
pez_vela calls $300
*** TURN *** [5s Tc 7s] [5h]
pez_vela checks
cymbaline bets $750
pez_vela calls $750
*** RIVER *** [5s Tc 7s 5h] [Jh]
pez_vela checks
cymbaline bets $1,800
pez_vela calls $1,800
*** SHOW DOWN ***
cymbaline shows [Jc 8c] (two pair, Jacks and Fives)

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I take this line pretty often in this kind of situation, because it seems like it should be the correct way to play, but my gut feeling is that when the river doesn't go check/check I'm losing more often than pot odds being offered. Is the river call more +EV at higher stakes?

For this hand in particular, are there any cards you would have folded? The J seems dangerous (in retrospect... I'm being results oriented here) because it hits one OESD and two gutshots.