Official April Thread: General Discussion/etc

[Eagles]

99.99999% of the time people have downswings it is not just variance. It is almost always a combination of variance + bad play. Normally people try and blame it on variance but realistically they're making a ton of mistakes and just not playing very well.

[jalexand42]

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you should know that 95K breakeven hand streaks are possible for a winning player .. also we've seen graphs from HEK and equal demonstrating this.

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Possible, not likely


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CTS has had at least 2 100k break evens. I've had one myself.

As for downswings, they can happen with more violence than most poker players want to believe. This was on party poker and is my worst ever, and included no tilt - just a ton of f'ing suckouts.




As a point of reference, here's my 2/4 play at FTP during the time period that ddubois posted (Jan - March), so I'm definitely no slouch at mid stakes.




At mid stakes or higher:
If you haven't had a 100k break even, you will.
If you haven't had a bad downswing (20-30 buyins), you will.

Consider yourself lucky or a mega-poker-stud if you haven't.

[skier_5]

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99.99999% of the time people have downswings it is not just variance. It is almost always a combination of variance + bad play. Normally people try and blame it on variance but realistically they're making a ton of mistakes and just not playing very well.

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QFT and if it started as just variance, it's likely that bad play was introduced at one point.

Reef,

Even if you are not doing anything wrong, you'd probably be better off if you had the mentality that you were.

[WiltOnTilt]

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you should know that 95K breakeven hand streaks are possible for a winning player .. also we've seen graphs from HEK and equal demonstrating this.

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Possible, not likely

If I was down 20 BI in my last 50k hands I couldn't imagine being as ignorant as you.

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"Someday you will run worse than you ever thought possible"

Can't remember who originally said it, but it's oh-so-true.

I'm currently down a couple buyins after 100k hands.

KoW

[WiltOnTilt]

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99.99999% of the time people have downswings it is not just variance. It is almost always a combination of variance + bad play. Normally people try and blame it on variance but realistically they're making a ton of mistakes and just not playing very well.

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99.99999% of the time people have big upswings it is not just good play. It is almost always a combination of variance + good play. Normally people try and attribute it to good play but realistically they're making a ton of mistakes and just not playing as well as they could.

This line of thought also applies to big upswings. Most people don't play mistake-free ever.

[kotkis]

Re: bad play and variance:

I never have > 2k hand sessions where I can't find a single hand that I screwed up somehow, so when I do go on a big downswing sure you can find lots of bad play embedded in there, but often times I don't really feel like I'm making that much more mistakes than I would when I'm running hot. Downswings happen when everything that can go wrong, will go wrong, and the hands where you get sucked out on in big pots are only a small part of it. That's why I wouldn't give too much credit for any Sklansky-bucks calculator as a measure of good play.

[KRANTZ]

anyone who really, truly believes massive downswings don't happen just has not played enough poker

and by poker i mean poker, not filleting fish on soft non-US sites

[feesjah]

good2cu is playing 400NL @ ps right now ?
why ?

[Reef]

MOMENT OF TRUTH

drum roll




for reference during the blue line my W$SD was 46% (lol) with relatively low WTSD

to all the haters: DIE YOU DIE

[Reef]

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anyone who really, truly believes massive downswings don't happen just has not played enough poker

and by poker i mean poker, not filleting fish on soft non-US sites

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QFT