WOW! No Official Ranking Thread. I Will Start One

[Austiger]

rwperu- Auburn's ranking in what MyTurn is doing would be hurt by the fact they beat the same team twice. The only question is how much it hurts them. It's similar to what used to happen in the BCS when they counted quality victories. You get a quality victory over a top ten team, and then you beat them again and suddenly instead of two quality victories, you have 0, because they aren't in the top 10 anymore.

[Austiger]

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Just a quick glance at the 2004 schedules and there is no way Auburn's was in the same ballpark as Oklahoma. USC's was the toughest by far. They got that one right.

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LOL I definitely can't debate it if you're going to say something that ignorant. (Talking about the first part, not the 2nd. They did get exactly one of the two teams right.)

[BobJoeJim]

Austiger, becaues Sagarin's rankings measure a team by margin of victory, Tennessee probably wasn't hurt too badly by their two losses in the predictor ranking system. Therefore, they probably grade as a pretty difficult team for a #5 team to beat, which means Auburn should get a good amount of credit in MT2R's system for having to do so twice. If you do come out of his analysis as the #3 team, I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that it's probably NOT because of a flaw in how the Tennessee games are incorporated...

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
rwperu- Auburn's ranking in what MyTurn is doing would be hurt by the fact they beat the same team twice. The only question is how much it hurts them. It's similar to what used to happen in the BCS when they counted quality victories. You get a quality victory over a top ten team, and then you beat them again and suddenly instead of two quality victories, you have 0, because they aren't in the top 10 anymore.

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No, Auburn is not being punished for beating the same team twice. Those are two data points out of thirteen for Tennessee. You want to selectively throw out two games for Tennesse to show how strong they are, but that doesn't work. They played those two games and played poorly. Predictor uses margin of victory, and after the bowls Tennessee was ranked 25th in predictor! The fifth ranked team would be 12 point favorites against Tennessee on a neutral field. One thing you fail to point out is that while Tennessee only lost one game other than the Auburn game, they only had one top 20 opponent on their schedule. Their other loss was to 32nd ranked Notre Dame. Their best wins were 20th ranked Georgia and 24th ranked Florida. Tennessee was a fringe top 20 team and Auburn was a top 5 team. Auburn is expected to win both of those games, and they did.

[Austiger]

rwperu- So if Oklahoma had played Texas 6 times, hypothetically, and blown them out all 6 times, you think it would be a fair analysis to see how a #5 team would fair against their schedule given that Texas would be considered a 5-6 team that got blown out 6 times?

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Tennessee was a fringe top 20 team and Auburn was a top 5 team. Auburn is expected to win both of those games, and they did.

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This is the problem. Tennessee is considered a fringe top 20 team. So is LSU. So is Georgia. So is Tx A&M (despite losing to Tennessee in Dallas by 31.) And yet...

Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia went 0-4 against Auburn and a combined 27-1 against other teams. 27-1!!! None of those 3 teams (4 games for Auburn) are ranked higher than 20th in the predictor that year. It's just not going to be a fair assessment.

For example- look at the final AP poll. Tennessee is ranked 13th even with the 2 losses to Auburn. LSU was top 10 but ended 16th b/c they lost their bowl game on a hail mary to Iowa. Georgia is 7th. I know the polls can be retarded, but using a comparison that doesn't give Auburn credit for any top 20 wins when they were 4-0 against those teams...cmon.

[BigSoonerFan]

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BSF- That's true if you're looking only at their SOS. Under MyTurn's system it would not be true, since he can't take it out.

Also, if Tennessee is not the team I'm making them out to be, why did the beat TAMU in Dallas by a bajillion points when you beat them by 7?

I really don't feel like rehashing this debate any more because it only ticks me off. You guys had your shot. You got blown out.

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Right, while you guys eeked out an impressive three point win over Va Tech. Congrats.

[iggymcfly]

Well, I won't argue that Auburn didn't deserve to go the title game since I specifically remember having them ranked #1 going into the bowls based on their resume, but I would like to share Sagarin's Top 10 by predictor after the bowls with all the factors included that you mentioned:

1. USC
2. California
3. Louisville
4. Utah
5. Miami
6. Boise State
7. Oklahoma
8. Auburn
9. Virginia Tech
10. Fresno State

I'm guessing there was a little bit more justification to Auburn being ranked lowly than you remember. Remember, Auburn needed a cheap penalty on the extra point to beat LSU at home and that win over Tennessee was their only tough road win that year.

I'm not arguing that Auburn didn't deserve a shot at the title that year. I think they did, and I think that season should have been overwhelming evidence that we need a playoff, but I do think that just about any efficient computer ranking system you use would have had Oklahoma ahead of Auburn going into the bowls.

[iggymcfly]

For the record, here's how my playoff system would have shaken out that year:

Quarterfinal 1: Boise State at (1)USC
Quarterfinal 2: Texas at (4)Utah
Quarterfinal 3: Virginia Tech at (2)Oklahoma
Quarterfinal 4: California at (3)Auburn

[BigSoonerFan]

[ QUOTE ]
rwperu- So if Oklahoma had played Texas 6 times, hypothetically, and blown them out all 6 times, you think it would be a fair analysis to see how a #5 team would fair against their schedule given that Texas would be considered a 5-6 team that got blown out 6 times?

[ QUOTE ]
Tennessee was a fringe top 20 team and Auburn was a top 5 team. Auburn is expected to win both of those games, and they did.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem. Tennessee is considered a fringe top 20 team. So is LSU. So is Georgia. So is Tx A&M (despite losing to Tennessee in Dallas by 31.) And yet...

Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia went 0-4 against Auburn and a combined 27-1 against other teams. 27-1!!! None of those 3 teams (4 games for Auburn) are ranked higher than 20th in the predictor that year. It's just not going to be a fair assessment.

For example- look at the final AP poll. Tennessee is ranked 13th even with the 2 losses to Auburn. LSU was top 10 but ended 16th b/c they lost their bowl game on a hail mary to Iowa. Georgia is 7th. I know the polls can be retarded, but using a comparison that doesn't give Auburn credit for any top 20 wins when they were 4-0 against those teams...cmon.

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sigh....there's a reason they were ranked so low...

Tennesse
-loses to 6-6 Notre Dame at home
-blew out A&M in a bowl
-Wins six games by less than 7

LSU
-beats 7-5 Oregon St by 1 at home
-Lost to 10-2 Iowa in a bowl

Georgia
-beats 6-6 Marshall by 10 at home
-beats 7-5 Georgia Tech by 6 at home
-beats 9-3 Wisconsin in its bowl

Overall the teams you mention had more quality losses than wins. Don't make them out better than they were. The SEC is usually way ahead of the Big 12 top-to-bottom. 2004 wasn't one of those years.

[BobJoeJim]

There is a good reason why MT2R is trying to track down pre-bowl ratings before doing an analysis of 2004, those bowl games certainly change things. Not so much in the teams themselves, but rather in the ratings of their opponents, which is what his system is actually based on. Using MyTurn's system with Sagarin's post-bowl ratings isn't really valid. But it's still fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Oklahoma Schedule:
Bowling Green (87.3%)
Houston (99%)
Oregon (90%)
Texas Tech (78.6%)
$ Texas (70.2%)
@ Kansas State (88%)
Kansas (94%)
@ Oklahoma State (74.7%)
@ Texas A&M (74.7%)
Nebraska (95.75%)
@ Baylor (98%)
$ Colorado (88.3%)
Average record for #5: 10.4 - 1.6
Oklahoma: 12-0, +1.6145

Auburn Schedule:
UL Monroe (99.5%)
@ Mississippi State (96.5%)
LSU (80%)
Citadel (100%)
@ Tennessee (73%)
Louisiana Tech (97.5%)
Arkansas (88.9%)
Kentucky (98.5%)
@ Mississippi (94.2%)
Georgia (79%)
@ Alabama (83.4%)
$ Tennessee (79%)
Average record for #5: 10.7 - 1.3
Auburn: 12-0, +1.305

Preliminary analysis says the BCS got it right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And just in case you ever meet someone who thinks it should've been Oklahoma vs. Auburn and that USC didn't deserve a shot, you're justified in whatever actions you take:

USC Schedule:
$ Virginia Tech (56%)
Colorado State (95.5%)
@ BYU (80%)
@ Stanford (75.5%)
California (50.2%)
Arizona State (75%)
Washington (97%)
@ Washington State (85.75%)
@ Oregon State (56%)
Arizona (95%)
Notre Dame (87.5%)
@ UCLA (66.8%)
Average record for a #5 team: 9.2 - 2.8
USC: 12-0, +2.7975