College Football Rank 'em --- Week 8

[Semtex]

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my new top 5
1. Kansas
2. Ohio State
3. Arizona State
4. Boston College
5. LSU

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Just curious, in your results oriented top 5, why does Hawaii not make the list?

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yeah...you and BobJoeJIm both hit on that one, I should've looked at Hawai'i. I'll add them to the mix.

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also, about your strength of schedule? how does LSU come above Oregon? Oregon's non-conference schedule was miles tougher than LSU's, and if the Pac 10 isn't tougher than the SEC its damn close.
For lack of a better method, I averaged the opponent's rating using the Predictor. LSU: 52.16, Oregon: 38.6 (USC was 52.5 I ran it for the hell of it).

[MyTurn2Raise]

semtex,
it's due to most of Oregon's Pac10 foes being at the bottom while LSU has played Florida, S Car, Auburn, and Kentucky in conference so far. The difference between the conference games LSU and Oregon have played is huge right now. That will change as the season goes on and Oregon gets USC, ASU, and UCLA while LSU has Bama and Arkansas. The rest of the way is much tougher for Oregon.

[MyTurn2Raise]

oooooooooooooo ooooooooooo ooooooooo
i just noticed that if the top 4 win next week, the teams will get much closer. Ohio State might even leap ahead. If they win 2 weeks in a row, Ohio state and Arizona State will definitely be ahead of Kansas.

[iggymcfly]

Arizona State's schedule the rest of the way is tough enough that they'd not only be #1 in any computer ranking, they'd also probably be #1 in the polls. The chances of it actually happening are tiny though.

[iggymcfly]

FWIW, in a somewhat similar vein, I did some rankings earlier today based on who had the best chance to reach the national title if they won out. It's more perception of schedule than actual schedule, but it does kind of show where the teams stand. I came up with:

1. Arizona State
2. Ohio State
3. Boston College
4. Kansas (think they'd pass LSU if they finished with wins over Mizzou and OU, but it would be close)
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Missouri
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. USF
13. South Carolina
14. Hawaii

Everyone else I feel is pretty much 100% eliminated from the national title race. Hawaii barely even needs to be on the list as they'd probably need Boise State and UW to both go undefeated the rest of the way and a ton of teams to lose above them to even have a shot.

[Semtex]

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FWIW, in a somewhat similar vein, I did some rankings earlier today based on who had the best chance to reach the national title if they won out. It's more perception of schedule than actual schedule, but it does kind of show where the teams stand. I came up with:

1. Arizona State
2. Ohio State
3. Boston College
4. Kansas (think they'd pass LSU if they finished with wins over Mizzou and OU, but it would be close)
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Missouri
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. USF
13. South Carolina
14. Hawaii

Everyone else I feel is pretty much 100% eliminated from the national title race. Hawaii barely even needs to be on the list as they'd probably need Boise State and UW to both go undefeated the rest of the way and a ton of teams to lose above them to even have a shot.

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See my post from before. As of right now Oregon will have the best shot out of all the one loss teams. Their out of conference strength of schedule is the best out of LSU or USC, and based on the Predictor their average opponent is 52.16 while Oregon's is 38.6 (USC 52.5). The problem is I doubt anyone in the polls will realize this and put a one loss Oregon above a one loss LSU.

[iggymcfly]

Well, we already have a post in this thread dealing with the problems of raw averages. In terms of elite teams, the SEC has #1, #8, #11, #12, and #14 by the Sagarin ratings. That's 5 teams in the Top 15. Meanwhile, the Pac-Ten has #4, #6, and #15 for a total of only three. Also, LSU's best non-conference win (vs. #20 VT) is slightly better than Oregon's best (vs. #21 Mich). So you could definitely make a strong argument that LSU's elite opposition is tougher and that's without counting a potential conference championship game.

Even beyond any of the advanced schedule analysis, however, the fact remains that Oregon lost at home. They had all of their fans going crazy, and they gagged against Cal. LSU's only loss came on the road in 3OT in the middle of a brutal stretch where they played Top 15 teams 3 weeks in a row. I think that's enough to give LSU the benefit of the doubt if it comes down to a battle between them and Oregon.

Still though, Oregon's at #7 in terms of positioning and two of the teams above them are on their schedule, so they really only need to get 3 out of 4 teams to lose to make the title game out of Ohio State, BC, Kansas, and LSU. I think there's a very good chance of that happening and if they win out, they're well over 50% to go to New Orleans.

[iggymcfly]

In fact, I think these would be my BCS projections right now:

BCS Championship: Oregon (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1)
Rose Bowl: LSU (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: Florida (11-2) vs. Missouri (10-2)
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State (11-1) vs. South Florida (11-1)
Orange Bowl: Boston College (11-2) vs. West Virginia (11-1)

[Semtex]

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Well, we already have a post in this thread dealing with the problems of raw averages. In terms of elite teams, the SEC has #1, #8, #11, #12, and #14 by the Sagarin ratings. That's 5 teams in the Top 15. Meanwhile, the Pac-Ten has #4, #6, and #15 for a total of only three. Also, LSU's best non-conference win (vs. #20 VT) is slightly better than Oregon's best (vs. #21 Mich). So you could definitely make a strong argument that LSU's elite opposition is tougher and that's without counting a potential conference championship game.

Even beyond any of the advanced schedule analysis, however, the fact remains that Oregon lost at home. They had all of their fans going crazy, and they gagged against Cal. LSU's only loss came on the road in 3OT in the middle of a brutal stretch where they played Top 15 teams 3 weeks in a row. I think that's enough to give LSU the benefit of the doubt if it comes down to a battle between them and Oregon.

Still though, Oregon's at #7 in terms of positioning and two of the teams above them are on their schedule, so they really only need to get 3 out of 4 teams to lose to make the title game out of Ohio State, BC, Kansas, and LSU. I think there's a very good chance of that happening and if they win out, they're well over 50% to go to New Orleans.

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By the ratings the SEC has #s: 1, 8, 11, 12, 14, 19 and 25. Thats 7, though LSU will not play #19 Georgia. The Pac has #s: 4, 6, 15, 17, and 24. Thats 5 so its close. Alabama will probably have dropped out by the end but I doubt any of the Pac 10 teams will.

By the Predictor, the SEC has #s: 6, 8, 10, 13 and 17 while the Pac has #s: 1, 3, 12, 16 and 20.

Virginia Tech (43) is much worse than Michigan (25) according to the Predictor as well, and Houston and Fresno State are much better than the other non conference games LSU played.

[Semtex]

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In fact, I think these would be my BCS projections right now:

BCS Championship: Oregon (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1)
Rose Bowl: LSU (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: Florida (11-2) vs. Missouri (10-2)
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State (11-1) vs. South Florida (11-1)
Orange Bowl: Boston College (11-2) vs. West Virginia (11-1)

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I put a two loss USC above a two loss BC, and I think the voters will too.

One other thing from your teams that have a shot if they win out iggy, what about UCLA? They still have not lost in the Pac 10. If they (unlikely) run the table, they are in the hunt for sure. I am shocked that UCLA has not made the top 25 with the voters or 80% of the people in this thread.