Up date of what I think I learned regarding pot odds and breaking even

[ThomasDayton]

LOL huh?

[ThomasDayton]

Answer the Questions to the quiz

[GrumpyB]

Oh no, I said I wasn't going to do this but I can't help myself!
[I said I'd never call an all-in when I knew I was beat again either, but I keep doing that too. I can resist everything except temptation.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pop quiz.

On the turn, you have 8 outs to make the nuts and win the hand. Pot is $100, villian bets $10 (Total pot: $110) so to see the river you have to call $10.

What are your pot odds/%?
odds/% of making your hand?
Should you call?

If you can answer this then you are good to go [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds?
Easy $10 bet to win $110 - so that'll be 11:1.

So what % chance do you need to win to make a call profitable?
That'll be one time in 12 (win 1 + lose 11) - which is 8.33%

odds/% of making your hand?

Cards remaining unseen = 46
Outs = 8

Expressed as odds? That'll be (46-8):8 = 38:8 or 4.75:1 if you prefer.

Expressed as %? That'll be 8/46 = 17.39%

Should you call?
At 11:1! Are you kidding me?

Supplementary questions:
Is this the recommended thought process at the table?
Of course! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [Hint for the mentally challenged - that means NO]

Does this mean, as OP claims, that with pot odds of 9:2 you break even with 11 losses and two wins?

Can I have extra time to think about than one please? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Edit: When I suggest this is not the recommended thought process I don't mean you should not weigh pot odds against outs. Not to do so would be just st00pid. But do you really want to take your calculator out to work out percentages?

[GrumpyB]

Thomas,

You're not a tax accountant for the Government are you?

[CrazyEyez]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sweet fancy moses stop using percents.
Pot odds: 11:1
odds of hitting 8-outer: 5:1
Call

See how easy that is? Find a chart and memorize the odds for a given number of outs and your life will be easier.


[/ QUOTE ]
LOL huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't get that, you should give up poker right now. It's not for you.

I'm very serious and not at all trying to be mean.

[DiamondDog]

I've got a nasty feeling that any minute now, somebody's going to mention the Monty Hall problem ... [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Dalek]

Now we've got that lets calculate some game theory and use bayes theorem for something!

What, No takers.

[GrumpyB]

[ QUOTE ]
Now we've got that lets calculate some game theory and use bayes theorem for something!

What, No takers.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, the fourth rule of the Bayesian theory [named after the English clergyman Thomas Bayes (1702-1761)] gives a precise way a Bayesian function must be updated when we learn that a certain proposition A is true:

P(B|A)=P(B and A)/P(A);

it is called Bayes' rule.

Discuss.

Meanwhile, I'll go grab a beer.

[Small Fry]

[ QUOTE ]
Fry I think you confuse the probabilty of winning with the certainty of winning. AA is 100% the best hand. Go ahead and through money at it like it can not lose. It's 100%. But every now and then I'll take your 100% hand that you throw $10,000 dollars at with the belief that it's a give me. And I'll walk away $10,000 dollars richer

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you telling me 1:1 odds is not 100%? what the heck is it then?

Obviously, sarcasm is wasted on you.

[Small Fry]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a few more quotes from Mr. THomasDayton:

[ QUOTE ]
However 4.5:1 as your bottom line states is 22% not 18%

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call the bet you need to win is 18% which my formular gave you. According to these assine post you are saying you can win 1 and lose 4.5 and break even. which is 22%

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a ratio. Wins to loses. If it is 1 to 4.5 the percebtage is 22. If it is 1 to 5.5 the percentage is 18.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
then 1:5.5 is both a ratio of wins to loses and a percent of 18.181818181818%

[/ QUOTE ]

Every one of which is incorrect. Now, he is right, 18% is the correct answer.... with pot odds of 4.5:1.

Oh, and it's formula, The word ends in an a, not an r

I'm done