Early Week 2 NFL Picks

[IggyWH]

Since I'm pretty new to sports betting, hopefully someone can answer me on this one :

Does the suspended play due to lightning in the Oakland vs Denver game affect money on the game?

[shipitkthx]

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I am waiting for Cleveland to get to 7 then I am taking them.

This spread was 3.5 before the week one games. Now it is possibly going to get up to 7! Why? Because after week one the Browns are being undervalued (some, they still arent very good). But the Bengals are overvalued. I see them as average. They needed 6 turnovers and a crap call to squeak out a home win (against a good team though). The Bengals do not have a good D. It was bad last year and the personel has not improved. Meanwhile, the Browns D is underrated and can stop teams as long as they dont start every series on their own 20 yard line.

In summary, this line is a complete overreaction to week one.

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I would buy this argument if we were talking about a team other than the Browns. Miami maybe, or hell even Oakland. But the Browns are god awful.

Even the guys posting above saying the Saints are not a lock, I agree with that. I still like the Saints, but its not a lock.

However the Bengals covering 6.5 in Cleveland? If that is not a lock, what is? What has Cleveland shown last year and last week that makes them even a consideration for your money this week? I just dont see any arguments, please tell me some if you have them.

I do not post alot in the sports betting section so I dont expect my opinion to be respected. I can say that I have been a profitable NFL better the last two years(im probably on a heater), but I havent posted my picks here so I realize my opinion doesnt have much weight, which is cool. However the bottom line here, is that in my opinion I do not see how the Bengals are not a mortal lock to cover. Just like the Steelers were a mortal lock last week, the Bengals are a mortal lock this week. Its not because of any overvaluing the bengals, its because the Browns are that bad. They may be the worst team in the entire league.

And I also hate to use the term lock, but they do happen once in a while imo. And the Steelers were one last week, and the Bengals are this week.

And if I am wrong, I will gladly taking some berating and insults on Monday.


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Consider this your first berating.

[Alzee]

Glad the [censored] Colts decided to have a field goal parade instead of putting the ball in the end zone... eff'd me over on the spread. Real good idea to throw it on 3rd and inches.

argh! frustrating weekend

[Nez477]

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im suprised more people arent all over the saints game.. they are -3 1/2 right now.. i got them early at -3.. either way.. i feel like that could be the easiest game of the week

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Each time you call it a lock it's another TD the Saints are going to lose by

I'm betting on the Bucs now

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lol
QFT

Hopefully someone can start a new account to tell us about new locks

[iggymcfly]

Hoorah for the backdoor cover on the Jets! I didn't post it because I made it in live betting after the game had started, but I bet 4 units to win 5 units at +9.5 and covered after being down 17 in the 4th quarter.

[MacGuyV]

Ugh, thought I had a perfect week w/ the Ravens/Donkeys up 17-3 at the half.

[Limpfold]

My KC&Under parlay snuck in there too, means my alltime NFL bet record is 3-0, undefeated baby.

[iggymcfly]

Also, I'm adding:
New England/San Diego under 46 (Risk 2.12u to win 1.96u)

The line moved 5 cents right after I bet in my favor, but what can you do. Reasoning is that even though the squares are on the over for the Sunday night showdown between Brady and LT, the SD game last week finished with a total of 17. Seems like 46 is a mighty high number.

[Assani Fisher]

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ATL +10: Jacksonville is overrated. They've lost 4 in a row. They got manhandled last week. This will be low scoring, 10 should be enough.

KC +12.5: KC really didn't lose that much from last year...people are underrating them. I think they'll win 7 games or so. Chicago's offense is dreadful. Another low scoring game, and 12.5 is too much.

Pit -10: I think Pit is a top 5 team. Went 15-1 3 years ago, SB champs 2 year ago, last year QB got hurt and coach retired and everything fell apart. They represent good value early in the season imo.

All lines taken from MGM sportsbook. $125 wagered on each.

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3-0 on the day. 6-0 on the year. I think I'll start my own thread next week [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[dlunc3]

i like you logic.. im new to betting sports.. ill keep my eyes out for your picks this year