PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 1)

[tdarko]

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What do you mean? From what I've seen of Dallas last year and this week, Barber is clearly the better back. Do you think people just go overboard by saying Barber>>>>>>Jones when it's really only Barber>Jones?

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Fink,

Yea, actually it really is only Barber>Jones and trust me I watch plenty more Dallas games than you do unless you watch every one of them. Athletics is measured by statistics sure, and in their case the numbers aren't even as overwhelming as the difference between them are made out to be. There is also more than just numbers.

There is more to this than just 14 td's to 4 and 4.9 ypc to 4.1 which the latter isn't that bad at all considering their roles. Parcells really did put Jones in a situation to fail--maybe not the right words but he was on the field in less juicy situations than Barber, Barber thrived on timing. Kind of like last Sunday night w/ the 4th and 2, everyone bunches up in the middle and Barber gets a play to bounce out to the outside and gets an 18 yard run for a TD--it was a great/electric run and very impressive and he did some great stuff when he got outside but he still had that room to run...other than that Sunday he was average at best. Julius sits back grinding it out like he always does and again averages 4.1 a carry in plenty of non-favorable situations.

Julius Jones for the record has two of the 4 highest rushing games in Cowboy history, this is impressive considering the team and the previous rb's such as Emmitt, Dorsett and H. Walker. I think Barber is really good but if I wasn't such a Dallas fan I almost wish he would go to a single back team, get 30 carries a game so that it isn't a guess anymore b/c lets face it nobody has seen him in any position to fail yet...which is fine for me being a fan b/c they have a nice little dual back system working.

Why did you pick Green Bay's schedule? It still doesn't change my point that NONE of the teams on the schedule are going to be known as good or bad till the end.

[Vyse]

Barber is so much better than JJ it's insane. Barber is great at getting positive yardage. He has one of the best Success Rates in the NFL. His FO numbers are off the charts.

[PokerFink]

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Why did you pick Green Bay's schedule?

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Just wanted two schedules to compare, and GB/DAL was good because the teams have a lot of common games.

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It still doesn't change my point that NONE of the teams on the schedule are going to be known as good or bad till the end.

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I mean, you're right, we don't KNOW anything at this point. But if we're going to make projections on how good teams will be (ie rankings) then we can make projections on a team's schedule based on that.

Remember, my power rankings are not "rank the teams 1-16 based on week 1." It's, "where will these teams finish up?" We're making a lot of projections and educated guesses.

And as for Barber/Jones, Vyse said exactly what I was going to say.

[tdarko]

Vyse, Fink,

Neither of you addressed anything I said about Barber and Jones. Vyse, you just use succes rate etc. to claim Barber is better--I think Barber is better too but I am not willing to say it is "so much better it is insane" until Barber is running in Jones' role and vice versa. Dallas has done a great job w/ Barber and I seriously feel bad for Jones, he is a whipping boy for the Cowboys offense and thus the critics.

I think success values are something to consider when evaluating a player as well as much of the concepts used here and elsewhere but there is a point where you just have to watch the game and realize that one player is getting the short end of the deal while the other is thriving in a system.

[PokerFink]

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but there is a point where you just have to watch the game and realize that one player is getting the short end of the deal while the other is thriving in a system.

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You can make a similar comparison to Westbrook and Buckhalter on the Eagles. Buckhalter's job is to grind out 4 yards every carry. He carries the ball between the tackles on vanilla running plays. And he is excellent in his role - he had one of the highest success rates in the NFL last year by grinding out a consistant 4-6 yards, but a relatively poor DVOA compared to his success rate since he would never get anything beyond those 4-6 yards.

Westbrook, on the other hand, is used to run draws, counters, inside, outside, sweeps, etc. He averaged over more than 5ypc last year and was one of the league's best rushers.

So you can make the argument that Westbrook is put in a better position to succeed than Buck due to more creative and varied playcalling. Or, you can realize the simple and obvious truth that Westbrook is just a lot better. And so is Barber. But I do agree that calling Barber "so much better it's insane" is unfair to Jones. Jones is a good back as well.

[Sluss]

You make a good point darko. Jones reallly does gain the "tough" yards. I think sometimes situational runners like Barber and Brandon Jacobs last year for the Giants look better because of what they come in to do. It's a different attitude than the guy who spends most of the game in there. It is hard to explain, but it is easy to understand in the mental make-up of an athlete. This is often why you see regression from these guys when they become everydown backs.

While I think Barber is better, he is better in the two headed monster and that it is much closer between the two than most people will admit.

[PokerFink]

Another thing to consider is the number of carries, not just type of carries. Running backs wear down with more use, especially consecutive carries. This goes against the popular cliches that backs "wear down a defense" or "get into a rhythm" but it makes sense when you mute ESPN and think about it logically.

Anyway, look at the top 10 backs in DVOA last year:

1. Turner
2. Barber III
3. Jerious Norwood
4. Tomlinson
5. Jones-Drew
6. Addai
7. Westbrook
8. Bradon Jacobs
9. Leon Washington
10. Cedric Benson

A lot of part-time backs in there. Only Tomlinson had more than 300 carries.

So a better argument for Julius Jones is probably that he got 130 more carries than Barber last year.

[Pudge714]

bump

[PokerFink]

Pudge,

What gives?

[MyTurn2Raise]

hey Fink,
the Bears special teams are awesome

last year wasn't an abberation IMO



that said, the bears should DIAGF