First Contact

[Sciolist]

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I haven't read the thread, but the Drake equation is pretty much useless considering that some of the variables are of a high enough order of magnitude that small errors will vastly affect the answer.

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I read something smart the other day: It's not too hard to calculate what'll happen if one snooker ball hits another. However, when you get to two or three collisions, you have to know the variables to extremely high degrees of accuracy. When you get to 6 or 7 collisions, you have to know how much the player weighs due to his gravitational influence on the balls. When you get to 24 or 25 collisions, you have to know the position & momentum of every particle in the universe.

I guess this helps demonstrate why this equation isn't very useful, though it's a nice thought experiment.

[Sciolist]

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I happen to be a firm believer that the reason we have not had contact with other intelligent life is simply because no civilization has been able to achieve the necessary technology (or desire) for contact prior to imploding on itself through technological warfare

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I don't really like that argument. It essentially says that it's highly unlikely that life will arise, but possible. It's highly unlikely that intelligence will form, but possible, therefore it has happened as the universe is so vast.

It then goes on to state that it's INEVITABLE that intelligence will destroy itself. It does away with the "highly likely/unlikely" and switches to a certainty. Why is this a certainty when the others are just unlikely?

[gusmahler]

They've found a star with an "earth-like" planet:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/0...te.dwarf.reut/

[tubasteve]

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[ QUOTE ]
I haven't read the thread, but the Drake equation is pretty much useless considering that some of the variables are of a high enough order of magnitude that small errors will vastly affect the answer.

[/ QUOTE ]
I read something smart the other day: It's not too hard to calculate what'll happen if one snooker ball hits another. However, when you get to two or three collisions, you have to know the variables to extremely high degrees of accuracy. When you get to 6 or 7 collisions, you have to know how much the player weighs due to his gravitational influence on the balls. When you get to 24 or 25 collisions, you have to know the position & momentum of every particle in the universe.

I guess this helps demonstrate why this equation isn't very useful, though it's a nice thought experiment.

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very interesting!

[stigmata]

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Either that, or we're all inside some virtual world, created by some kid inside someone else's virtual world.

matt

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our own child, perhaps.