Big Stacked AKs

[BarryLyndon]

I'm not going to forget FE when I know I'm getting into a race 100% of the time once I push and also know that a substantial percent of the time I can get it in while W/E depending on what hits on the turn/river and my opponent's need to push on a later street even if an A or club (especially a club) hits. It's a COMBINATION of these points that matter. And, yes, I agree with sherman - if we're deeper, I'm continuation betting with a plan.

It's not FPS to try to maximize value on a later street.

Barry
PS: lol, this post has been going about 50 posts longer than I thought. I'm sure we could find a more complex example to discuss, because in reality, both checking and pushing here aren't that bad.

[Sherman]

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because in reality, both checking and pushing here aren't that bad.

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There is no doubt that both are +EV.

[djk123]

Guys, this thread should not be 100 posts long. This is an extremely simple hand. Bet the flop and be glad to get it all in on the flop. We're betting the flop for several reasons:

We are even money/slightly favored or way ahead of the majority of his range. The only hands we are in trouble against are TT,7x, KK, AA, but all of these hands are unlikely. TT and 7x because of the board and KK-AA due to us holding an A and a K and because of the preflop action.

Even though we are ahead of his range, we don't mind when we get hands like 88 or 99 to fold since we are a slight dog to these hands. But they can't fold unless we bet.

Since he has only a little more than a potsized bet left on the flop, he is going to commit himself with a flush draw if we bet. This is great for us. We are wayyy ahead of a lower flush draw. If we bet around the pot on the flop, he's just going to stick it in with a flush draw, probably thinking he has overs and a flush draw. But he really only has overs. But if we check behind on the flop and the turn blanks, he is going to be much more reluctant to get all in with just a flush draw with only one card to come. Not good for us.

Also, you are only making things harder for yourself by checking the flop. If you bet the flop, you aren't faced with any tough decisions. A bet commits you to the pot, and you are rarely in bad shape. But if you check behind on the flop and a card like an 8 or 9 comes on the turn, you actually have a tough decision if villain comes out betting strong. Our hand had huge value with two cards to come, but now with only one card to come its value has gone down signifcantly.

edit: watever i guess a lwoer flush draw isnt tht likely, but this hand is retardedly simple. For all you lower stakes mtters, please just ignore wat sherman is saying. Bet the flop. Very simple.

[ThePershore]

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In fact, the only math that was done in this thread was by me, and it clearly demonstrates that I cannot be wrong.

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Well obviously the math in this thread done by you is going to demonstrate that you are right.

The reason no-one has done any math against checking is that there are 47 different possible turn cards, so it’s not exactly easy. I'll try and demonstrate an arguement by over simplifying but I think it explains what people are getting at.....

Basically we are saying we have 15 outs (i.e. 3 A’s, 3 K’s, 9 clubs). Assume villain has a pair, say 66,88,99 or JJ+ (ignoring 77/TT, because a) they’re unlikely and b) we lose all the chips either way), I think JJ/QQ re raise pf but whatever.

On the turn we MISS our outs 68% of the time.

If villain is good, which we are assuming he is, he will shove any 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 non-club turn (assuming he doesn’t fill up). So approx 45% of the time, when the turn is one of these cards, he shoves. We…….. call as a 32% dog? Hmmmmmm.

A further 11% of the time, turn comes a T or a 7. He shoves. We……. call as a 33% dog? Hmmmmmmmmm.

So approx 56% of turns we are getting it in as a dog.

Now consider turn comes an Ace, King. We likely don’t get all his chips, OK we MIGHT, but in most cases we won’t IMO because our hand looks SO MUCH like AK. This happens ~ 13% of the time.

Also when we hit our club we bet the turn (19% of the time) he will occasionally rep clubs and push, but a lot of the time he’s gonna c/f.

You also said AQ/AJ or whatever shove the turn a lot if they miss, to be honest I don't think they do.

Basically what I am saying, without doing any crazy maths is that he gets it in on the turn WAY MORE when we are behind than we are ahead.

Just put him in on flop, win 50/50 with good odds, get monster stack, win donkament. Seriously it’s that simple.

[SonofDjugashvili]

Thank you - the last 2 posters have expressed my thoughts better than I did. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[weimoxer]

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In fact, the only math that was done in this thread was by me, and it clearly demonstrates that I cannot be wrong.

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Well obviously the math in this thread done by you is going to demonstrate that you are right.

The reason no-one has done any math against checking is that there are 47 different possible turn cards, so it’s not exactly easy. I'll try and demonstrate an arguement by over simplifying but I think it explains what people are getting at.....

Basically we are saying we have 15 outs (i.e. 3 A’s, 3 K’s, 9 clubs). Assume villain has a pair, say 66,88,99 or JJ+ (ignoring 77/TT, because a) they’re unlikely and b) we lose all the chips either way), I think JJ/QQ re raise pf but whatever.

On the turn we MISS our outs 68% of the time.

If villain is good, which we are assuming he is, he will shove any 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 non-club turn (assuming he doesn’t fill up). So approx 45% of the time, when the turn is one of these cards, he shoves. We…….. call as a 32% dog? Hmmmmmm.

A further 11% of the time, turn comes a T or a 7. He shoves. We……. call as a 33% dog? Hmmmmmmmmm.

So approx 56% of turns we are getting it in as a dog.

Now consider turn comes an Ace, King. We likely don’t get all his chips, OK we MIGHT, but in most cases we won’t IMO because our hand looks SO MUCH like AK. This happens ~ 13% of the time.

Also when we hit our club we bet the turn (19% of the time) he will occasionally rep clubs and push, but a lot of the time he’s gonna c/f.

You also said AQ/AJ or whatever shove the turn a lot if they miss, to be honest I don't think they do.

Basically what I am saying, without doing any crazy maths is that he gets it in on the turn WAY MORE when we are behind than we are ahead.

Just put him in on flop, win 50/50 with good odds, get monster stack, win donkament. Seriously it’s that simple.

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If you also take KQ AJ out of his range (I would hope he would not call a reraise for that % of his stack with it, if he is, then likely he is not pushing the turn anyways), I think the above %s are even more in agreement with us getting shoved on more of a dog than as a favorite on the turn, and not getting payed off on any of our money cards. The player calls with AQ, AK, 88+ for that % of his stack instead of reshoving/folding, more than likely he is not shoving with AQ or AK on the turn with air. IMO.

[registrar]

Fold
















Just kidding. Seriously, wtf, for the love of Christ etc. etc. - make whatever bet turns you on as long as it clearly commits both of you. I'd just shove.

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

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I'm not going to forget FE when I know I'm getting into a race 100% of the time once I push and also know that a substantial percent of the time I can get it in while W/E depending on what hits on the turn/river and my opponent's need to push on a later street even if an A or club (especially a club) hits. It's a COMBINATION of these points that matter. And, yes, I agree with sherman - if we're deeper, I'm continuation betting with a plan.

It's not FPS to try to maximize value on a later street.

Barry
PS: lol, this post has been going about 50 posts longer than I thought. I'm sure we could find a more complex example to discuss, because in reality, both checking and pushing here aren't that bad.

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Checking to hope he might push a naked ace or lower club draw is FPS. Fancy play boys!!! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[8Adam8]

I was planning typing out a long post explaining why shoving flop is better..

Sherman, I understand what you're trying to get at. Your mistake, imo, is the range you are putting on the guy who raise/called. He has like 88-AA, mayyybe AQ sometimes.

He never has a random unpaired hand. His range is always mid-high pairs or sometimes AQ or AK if hes a retard.

Thus, with this range, shoving flop is much much better.

Also, checking flop with the intention to call a turn shove (when the turn is a blank) is not a winning play. Its either -EV or borderline neutral (but almost certainly -EV against villains range).

Thus, we can make a super super +EV play by shoving flop. Or we can try to FPS and get ourselves in a situation where we are forced to have a lot of -EV decisions on the turn

[tvta]

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Also, Sherman, when you check behind flop, and the turn is an offsuit 2, and whatever random pair he has open shoves the turn.

What do you do?

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i think this is the most probable outcome from checking the flop. taking a free card shows weakness and villain could be jamming on turn with pair or no pair, then it is up to you to decide if he does or not. like i said, put the decision on villain.

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You do realize that this arguement reinforces Sherman's point right?

That being said both sides have made good points.

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you may read it that way, but my point was that the decision is on you to decide if he has a pair or not. honestly after i read all the commentary, i really think both plays have legit arguments. but even assuming checking flop ev > jamming flop ev - how much ev do you gain here? id say very little vs most opponents without a solid read. that being said checking is with out question higher variance. so unless you need the chips desperately id still jam flop.


edit - i think shermans argument for checking is correct if you know your villain like the back of your sac or the stacks are incredibly deep(not with intention of calling allin to brick on turn). in a 100$ BODOG tourney(emphasize bodog), it is not common to have reads like this at your disposal. donks online at all stakes are notorious for not folding a huge range of hands to a reraise.

you are trying to make a world class play in a 100$ buyin.