WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

[nath]

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If I'M playing the hand, I call and shove over his flop bet, but I tend to widen people's ranges enough to make this profitable. His perception of you is important here.

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nath do you insta shove over his c-bet on the flop or do you take your normal amount of time? Which has a better perception of strength when playing live?

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I take my time a little bit. Study the board and study him. And maybe double-check my cards. Same as I do on any decision in a big pot.

[A_PLUS]

I think the larger raise size than we expected changes the hand from a flat call to a jam or fold in my mind.

7k in the pot, he has about 15k behind. Any C-bet by him commits a lot of his range that would have folded with 2k less in the pot preflop. Depending on the size of his c-bet he is getting close to pricing himself in to draw to 2 overs (which is usually bad for us).

[nath]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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So you think he's not 3-betting AJo or that he's calling a shove with AQo?

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He probably knows this is how you would justify shoving.

[betgo]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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So you think he's not 3-betting AJo or that he's calling a shove with AQo?

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I doubt he is 3-betting AJo. He probably knows ahead of time whether he is calling a shove. He probably 3-bets some suited gappers, suited aces, or high card hands that he knows he folds to a push as well as JJ+, AK and maybe down to AQ,99 where he is calling a push.

[djk123]

Those advocating a shove.. you'd be shoving any cards u raised with right? Shoving basically turns our hand into a bluff. Howard is never calling a worse hand. His calling range is like TT+,AQ+, (99 too maybe). With that calling range in mind , our cards are basically irrelevant. ATs is no different than 75s here ( 75s is slightly worse if he calls 99) if we shove.

id rank em: fold>call>shove

[FortunaMaximus]

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He probably 3-bets some suited gappers, suited aces, or high card hands that he knows he folds to a push as well as JJ+, AK and maybe down to AQ,99 where he is calling a push.

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If that's the case, why even shove PF? If his c-betting frequency is going to be pretty high, the only other option with value against the weaker part of his 3-betting range is going to be flatcalling and taking an aggressive action on the flop.

What he's folding to your shove is ahead of your opening range but behind your shoving range. And I think there's a potential exploit of that on seeing a flop. There's scant playability in that gap, but it's there.

Stack sizes are bothersome, but I'm not terribly encumbered by worrying about it because if I flatcall the 3-bet here, I'm playing the flop and his c-betting frequency, nothing more than that. And I'll find myself in situations where I will have to put my chips all in and not always be ahead.

Whether I call with 75s or ATs is irrelevant here. If I fold this orbit, I ain't folding incorrectly in the next few orbits in similar scenarios.

Will HL call every shove over his c-bet?

Will you flop strongly enough at times that even if he calls your postflop shove, you have enough equity on the remaining two streets to take the pot?

Can you fold some flops? Should you?

[nath]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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I actually think this is a really valid point

[0evg0]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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I actually think this is a really valid point

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Someone will go ballistic on me, but that's just a statement of opinion - not a point of anything.

[betgo]

If HL thinks OP is overaggressive, it doesn't necessarily mean that the push is bad. That might cause HL to make more loose or bluff reraises. It HL think OP calls or pushes loosely to a reraise then he is less likely to reraise with something like suited gappers or something like AJo/88.

It is true the hands run pretty close versus the calling range, but ATs is won of the best if you don't have a big hand. Of course, the push is a semibluff.

It really depends on whether you think HL is going to make loose reraise and whether you think he really has a big hand this time.

I would be suspicious that a big stack name player would reraise without a big hand. However, the decision here is completely read dependent.

[nath]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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I actually think this is a really valid point

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Someone will go ballistic on me, but that's just a statement of opinion - not a point of anything.

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You think there's no point to the idea that he fully expects you to be aware of what you're capable of and has readjusted appropriately?