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#101
05-07-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
This field is as poor as I can remember. I think he's got a lot more going for him than any of the other horses. The best bet I've seen is o/u 2:02 final time. Over is only -160. I have no clue how these pigs are going to beat 2:02, especially on a track that isn't playing particularly fast. [/ QUOTE ] Good call Clark. Terrible numbers from this group as a whole. Now, do you think Street Sense will get past the Preakness? Could be very tough I think with a couple derby-skipping horses jumping into the fray. 
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#102
05-07-2007, 02:33 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. He's likely to be 6/5 or 7/5 in the Preakness, and if he wins that, he'll be freaking 2/5 in the Belmont. 5/1 is a big overlay.
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#103
05-07-2007, 02:35 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This field is as poor as I can remember. I think he's got a lot more going for him than any of the other horses. The best bet I've seen is o/u 2:02 final time. Over is only -160. I have no clue how these pigs are going to beat 2:02, especially on a track that isn't playing particularly fast. [/ QUOTE ] Good call Clark. Terrible numbers from this group as a whole. Now, do you think Street Sense will get past the Preakness? Could be very tough I think with a couple derby-skipping horses jumping into the fray. [/ QUOTE ] The 8 ran a big race. So did the 2. Plus he leaves his home track and while Nafzger is great at pointing for a race, he's historically been not as good at keeping his horses at a peak level. He can certainly win the Preakness, but it'll be tougher for sure.
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#104
05-07-2007, 02:52 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. He's likely to be 6/5 or 7/5 in the Preakness, and if he wins that, he'll be freaking 2/5 in the Belmont. 5/1 is a big overlay. [/ QUOTE ] And making that bet even better is the qualifer that he must race in both the Preakness and Belmont. If he loses the preakness, he possibly doesn't run in the Belmont, getting a refund.
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#106
05-07-2007, 05:01 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I was really going to guess -800 for the no on this thing and say if it was below this I was going to load up. But here it is. Will Street Sense win the Triple Crown in 2007? Must race the Preakness and Belmont Stakes for action. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes +500 No -900 [/ QUOTE ] Where is that? That's an absurd overlay just from a straight pricing perspective. He's likely to be 6/5 or 7/5 in the Preakness, and if he wins that, he'll be freaking 2/5 in the Belmont. 5/1 is a big overlay. [/ QUOTE ] I think he'll be 6/5 or even money at Pimlico, agreed. Naj
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#107
05-07-2007, 05:02 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This field is as poor as I can remember. I think he's got a lot more going for him than any of the other horses. The best bet I've seen is o/u 2:02 final time. Over is only -160. I have no clue how these pigs are going to beat 2:02, especially on a track that isn't playing particularly fast. [/ QUOTE ] Good call Clark. Terrible numbers from this group as a whole. [/ QUOTE ] Beyer of 110 is not awful for winner, Hard Spun not much worse, although you said group was awful, I guess that's true how do you evaluate numerically?
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#108
05-07-2007, 06:13 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This field is as poor as I can remember. I think he's got a lot more going for him than any of the other horses. The best bet I've seen is o/u 2:02 final time. Over is only -160. I have no clue how these pigs are going to beat 2:02, especially on a track that isn't playing particularly fast. [/ QUOTE ] Good call Clark. Terrible numbers from this group as a whole. [/ QUOTE ] Beyer of 110 is not awful for winner, Hard Spun not much worse, although you said group was awful, I guess that's true how do you evaluate numerically? [/ QUOTE ] Oh I was referring to speed figs in the prep races and ability to overcome trouble/traffic in a race. The cream rose to the top in the derby...Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin. It also looked like Any Given Saturday ran a big race? I also still have a soft spot for Stormello. He was a throwout in the derby, but sure looks top class at shorter. EDIT: Just to add that I hit the oaks/derby double heavy. Also played Street Sense flat, but missed the superfecta even though I singled SS on top. Ugh.
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#109
05-07-2007, 06:46 PM
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Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHH!
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#110
05-08-2007, 02:56 AM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This field is as poor as I can remember. I think he's got a lot more going for him than any of the other horses. The best bet I've seen is o/u 2:02 final time. Over is only -160. I have no clue how these pigs are going to beat 2:02, especially on a track that isn't playing particularly fast. [/ QUOTE ] Good call Clark. Terrible numbers from this group as a whole. [/ QUOTE ] Beyer of 110 is not awful for winner, Hard Spun not much worse, although you said group was awful, I guess that's true how do you evaluate numerically? [/ QUOTE ] The crop in general didn't run particularly fast heading into the race. Then in the Derby itself, the best horse got the ultimate trip with a perfect pace scenario and still couldn't post a figure higher than 110. And after the 2nd place horse, no one else ran higher than 100 in the race, consistent with the pre-derby mediocrity. Certainly Curlin had a tough trip and has lots of right to keep moving forward as he gets seasoning. And both Street Sense and Hard Spun have the pedigree to keep improving, so maybe it's premature. But as of now this crop, to me, has 3 average horses at the top and the rest are really below average.
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