Playoff Bets? Post them here.

[iggymcfly]

Added on to the halftime line on the NE/SD game basically because I just want more action to make the game interesting. Put an offer on the Mansion exchange last night that I thought someone would take me up on, but then no one did. Anyway:

New England +1.5 (+105) (5 units)

Is this better than New England +2.5 (-105)? I figured that the chance of the score ending exactly on a 6 point margin was pretty slim with it being 14-10 at half, but I'm not very sure of the conversions for halftime lines.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
Added on to the halftime line on the NE/SD game basically because I just want more action to make the game interesting. Put an offer on the Mansion exchange last night that I thought someone would take me up on, but then no one did. Anyway:

New England +1.5 (+105) (5 units)

Is this better than New England +2.5 (-105)? I figured that the chance of the score ending exactly on a 6 point margin was pretty slim with it being 14-10 at half, but I'm not very sure of the conversions for halftime lines.

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My instinct says that you are right and that a 2 point win for the Chargers this half is extremely unlikely.

Edit: 9-7 is the main danger of course.

Lori

[iggymcfly]

Ship it.

Bet the ML and spread on both the Pats and Colts this week, and won a ML bet on New Orleans too. Total profit this weekend: About 20 units. Feeling pretty good right now.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
After going 6-2, I think it would be downright rude to sit and protect my lucky score, so I'll give the Numbers God a chance to regress me to the mean.

Colts @ Ravens

Lots of small interesting points for this one, not least that I think that it means more to the town of Baltimore than people let on. History is a funny thing.
However I'm still of the opinion that the Colts are fighting fit and that the Ravens have had a less than difficult season (Even playing the Chargers "at the right time").
I also think that although the Colts are going to struggle offensively, they'll find enough big plays to win the game somehow.

Colts 17 - 14 Ravens (Colts+4 Under 41.5)


Eagles @ Saints

What should be a simple one for me, I've gone against the Eagles many times, and the Saints unders have been a staple of my season.
I don't think that the atmosphere can be underestimated today, the last time I used this for a Saints game was the Falcons massacre in their first home game. I think today will approach (although obviously not surpass) those levels.

Eagles 10 - Saints 35 (Saints -5.5 under 48.5)


Seahawks @ Bears

I think the Seahawks are just straight value for this. They've had an injury riddled season and yet they're still here. Even last week they had key defensive injuries and got the job done. This week they're better off.
Of course the Bears have been the team of the season, and if Rex decides not to play the hero, they should be able to get this one done. I don't think they'll be looking for, or get, any style points though.

Seahawks 24 - Bears 28 (Seattle +9.5 (Best bet buying half point to +10) Over 37)


Pats @ Chargers

So so so annoying. I can't predict a Pats game and even though I know part of the problem is that I underrate them, that's not all, I simply don't seem to understand them.
I'm always up for a challenge though so I'll take a shot.
Both teams are fashionable this year, so I think I'll take the unders. As to who will win, I'm going to fade my instincts and say that the Pats will cover, but not win.

Patriots 21 - 24 Chargers (Pats +5, Under 46.5)

Lori

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Up to 12-4 for the playoffs, if only I was always this lucky (Went 0-12 in other bets last night)

Lori

[Jazzy3113]

[ QUOTE ]
i went with a teaser

indy +12
phi +11
Chi -2.5
Pats +12

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why? cause ima pimp

SHIP THE 3K MY WAY

[iggymcfly]

Also, I'm going to wait a little bit since the early sharps will probably be on Indy, but I'm definitely taking New England +3 this week.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm going to wait a little bit since the early sharps will probably be on Indy, but I'm definitely taking New England +3 this week.

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Pretty sure I'll be back to opposing the Patriots, they lost tonight, although they progressed to the next round [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Something I want to look at very carefully though, everyone says that the Colts run 'D' is their weakness, but I'm going to look very very carefully at how their pass 'D' has perfomed against the quality passers. I have a feeling that it might be worse than is generally assumed.

Lori

[sanmarcosrun1]

Their pass D is something that New England has success with their short out routes against. Indys pass D is Cover 2 for most part which is let them catch the ball but be right there for tackle. They try to keep recievers always in front of them.
I agree with your analysis of the pats losing the game. fluky things just went their way and Brady lost them the game but got bailed out by brown. Thats the NFL though. Chargers were right side of that game easily

[PropPlayer]

I totally believe some games people on the right side lose and wrong side win. I’m borderline on the fence for saying this Pats/Chargers game was one of these games. SD failed to put them away and the Pats turned it up when they needed to and won. Is that luck? Normally I would say yes but something needs to be validated by the fact the Pats have done this again and again over the past years. They find a way to win just before the game gets away from them. The Pats caught a lot of breaks but the chargers made mistakes too. I won’t argue it is a tough loss for Chargers backers but don’t fully agree the “Chargers” were the right side. If someone bet the Pats because they believed they would find a way to get it done in the end, would they be on the wrong side using that logic? Just playing some devils advocate here.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally believe some games people on the right side lose and wrong side win. I’m borderline on the fence for saying this Pats/Chargers game was one of these games. SD failed to put them away and the Pats turned it up when they needed to and won. Is that luck? Normally I would say yes but something needs to be validated by the fact the Pats have done this again and again over the past years. They find a way to win just before the game gets away from them. The Pats caught a lot of breaks but the chargers made mistakes too. I won’t argue it is a tough loss for Chargers backers but don’t fully agree the “Chargers” were the right side. If someone bet the Pats because they believed they would find a way to get it done in the end, would they be on the wrong side using that logic? Just playing some devils advocate here.

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There's a sliding scale of ways you can win a game, this is one of them. If you believed a game was 47 vs 47% and you thought that the Patriots had a 6% chance of covering due to their ability to find a win, then I think that's fair enough.
Of course all these numbers are very randomly picked to make the example simple, but when a team wins in a strange way, it was always one of the possible results (or it wouldn't have happened)

Lori