Pro Bowl Players

[SL__72]

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I think you're wrong about Gore. Watch him play first please.

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I've seen him play a few times this year thank you. He is awesome - I even said so in this thread.

But I would love to see some proof that Gore is worth more value than Westbrook.

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I've only watched the 49ers twice this year, and while Gore has looked good, both times I've come away from the game thinking "Damn, Larry Allen is a beast!"

[BWebb]

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Rushing yards are also a measure of value - they're just a worse measure of value than DPAR because they have a lower correlation to scoring points (and therefore winning). Westbrook leads all NFC running backs in DPAR.

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Actually he doesn't. Per this link: DPAR

He trails Marion Barber in the NFC. He also trails Addai. I don't see how any list that has these two part time RB's ahead of Westbrook, Gore, L. Johnson or Barber should be definitive proof that Westbrook is the most valuable RB in the league.

[capone0]

Gore without Larry A wasn't too bad last year either. 4.7 YPC. Gore has definitely improved this year with more snaps. The only game he was truly ineffective in were the Minnesota game, Minne has killed everyone, the Philly game and the NO game where he was underused. He's had 8 100 yard games, 2 150+ games. As I stated earlier, he's only fumbled lost one fumble since the 5th week of the season which is an awesome improvement.

[capone0]

Wouldn't it make sense in this stat since it is almost by touch that good backs that split time would in fact have better numbers? They aren't forced into bad situations, and each situtation they are brought in is probally more suited for their style. They also don't play as many snaps so they should be fresher than backs that play all the time.

[Chrisman886]

No mention of Tom Brady? Anyone else think he deserves it over Phillip Rivers? I'm a San Diegan and I think this.

[capone0]

Brady's numbers aren't that outstanding this year, neither are Rivers.

Rivers: 62.8% completion, 18 tds, 8 ints, 91.5 rating.

Brady: 60.9% completion, 22 tds, 12 ints, 86.1 rating.

His rating is actually below Losman's.

[tdarko]

One more thing- Roy Williams making the Pro Bowl is a joke and I am a huge Cowboy fan. I simply don't see how a liability can make it. It is a shame that he is selected once again and Terrence Newman, who is the reason the secondary has any chance whatsoever is overlooked. Newman is a stud and if he had anything around him he would be regarded as one of the best CB's in the NFL but he doesn't have any help. Roy Williams selected to yet another Pro Bowl is like Derek Jeter winning yet another Gold Glove.

[The X-Factor]

I thought Dustin Colquitt would make it for the AFC punter but still very good choice, cant go wrong with either guy.

[Case Closed]

tdarko,

Yeah, well he just finds a way to win. That should be take into account. 12 wins, you gotta take that into account.

Of course I am joking. I was just really hoping he would sneak in undeserved. He is not as good a QB as romo or some other NFC QBs. Just pissed that Romo got the pick after only 8 games. Oh well, i'll be happier with a super bowl trophy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SL__72]

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I think you're wrong about Gore. Watch him play first please.

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I've seen him play a few times this year thank you. He is awesome - I even said so in this thread.

But I would love to see some proof that Gore is worth more value than Westbrook.

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Ok Pokerfink, I'm going to tackle this one. I can't say he is more valuable then Westbrook overall, but I think he is more valuable as a rusher.

I don't think DPAR is necessarily the best stat to use in trying to determine an individual rusher's value to his team. While the DPAR/DVOA rushing metrics might be computed for individuals, they do a lot more to show how effective a team's overall rushing attack is then how much that individual is adding to it.

I think if you want to try and measure an RB's statistical value to his team, you need to try and somehow separate the individual's performance from his teams blocking/play calling. Since FO has some offensive line metrics I'm going to try and use those to do so here. For anyone who doesn't know how those metrics are determined (I know you probably do PF):

Line yards explained

Phi's Adj. Line Yards is 4.66 and Westbrook is averaging 5.1ypc.

SF's ALY is 4.40 and Gore is averaging 5.5ypc.

Based on those stats, it could be said that Westbrook is adding just over .4ypc worth of value on each of his rushes and Gore is adding 1.1ypc.

10+%
Phi 17% (12th)
SF 28% (2nd behind SD, still a phenomenal #)

This favors Gore because as the theory goes, your offensive line is very influential in getting you the first 0-5 yards of a run, less so in yards 5-10 and much less so in yards 10+.

Stuffed %
Phi 20% (3rd)
SF 23% (9th)

Well, that one might look better for Westbrook, but I would contend that stuffs are almost entirely due to bad play calls/blocking and that although the two numbers are close, Gore could have a little bit better DPAR/DVOA/ypc if he wasn't getting stuffed so often.

A final comparison that I like is the difference between their individual rushing DVOA's and their offense's non-adjusted rushing (or should I just be using individual VOA since their team rushing offense stat is non-adjusted?)

Anyway:

Team non-adjusted rushing:
Phi 15.3%
SF -7.6%
Individual #s
Westbrook DVOA 19.7% (VOA is 23%)
Gore DVOA 4.7% (VOA is 4.8%)

Even if you just use the VOA (which look better for Westbrook) it still looks like Gore is adding more value to his team as a rusher with a VOA 11.9% higher then his team's vs Westbrook's 7.7% improvement.

I'm not saying that one should be in the Pro Bowl over the other, just saying that if I had to pick one of them to just run the ball for me, I'd pick Gore.

Obviously there is still a lot of room for improvement in statistically tracking a team's blocking skills, but these are the best stats out there right now imo.